Polaris Industries Inc (PII) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $3.8B · ISIN US7310681025
What is Polaris Industries Inc really worth?
Polaris Industries Inc
PII · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 105% above our fair value of $29.83.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −17.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($43.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($16.21 to $43.45). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $30.10 – $121.50 · fair‑value band $16.21 – $43.45 · the $61.09 price screens above the $29.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Polaris Industries Inc (PII) currently trades at $61.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $29.83, implying the stock looks roughly 104.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $126.40 per share, and 8 of the 12 models we run sit above the $61.09 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.76, and 4 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Polaris Industries Inc generated revenue of $7.4B at a net margin of −6.1%. Revenue grew 7.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −44.9%. Net debt stands at $1.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.21 (bear case) to $43.45 (bull case); at $61.09, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at −51%, PII screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($126.40) versus Asset-Based ($9.76). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Polaris Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, and markets powersports vehicles in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Off Road, On Road, and Marine.
Full company description
Polaris Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, and markets powersports vehicles in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Off Road, On Road, and Marine. The company offers off-road vehicles (ORVs), including all-terrain vehicles and side-by-side vehicles; military and commercial ORVs; snowmobiles; motorcycles; moto-roadsters; quadricycles; and pontoon and deck boats. It also provides source parts, garments, and accessories, such as helmets, jackets, gloves, pants, and hats; and snowmobile accessories comprising covers, traction products, reverse kits, electric starters, tracks, pull-behinds, bags, and windshields, as well as gear and apparel for its snowmobiles consisting of helmets, jackets, goggles, gloves, boots, bibs, pants, and hats. In addition, the company offers ORV accessories, including winches, bumper/brushguards, plows, racks, wheels and tires, cab systems, lighting and audio systems, cargo box accessories, and tracks, as well as replacement parts and lubricants. Further, it provides motorcycle accessories, such as performance enhancements, saddle bags, handlebars, backrests, exhausts, windshields, seats, and various chrome accessories, as well as light duty hauling and passenger vehicles. The company sells its products through dealers and distributors, as well as online. The company was formerly known as Polaris Industries Inc. Polaris Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Medina, Minnesota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Polaris Industries Inc reported revenue of $7.2B in FY2025 versus $7.4B in FY2021, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$466M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +6.9 % · buybacks/dilution +1.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
PII screens 105% overvalued. Compare with Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co →
Peer Group
Recreational Vehicles · 37 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Recreational Vehicles median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Recreational Vehicles stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co 603129 | ¥283.50 | ¥199.10 | −30% |
| Brunswick Corporation BC | $82.30 | $13.56 | −84% |
| BRP Inc DOO | C$88.23 | C$86.81 | −2% |
| THOR Industries, Inc THO | $77.02 | $97.14 | +26% |
| Trigano S.A TRI | €152.20 | €273.48 | +80% |
| Patrick Industries, Inc PATK | $81.30 | $85.54 | +5% |
| Harley-Davidson, Inc HOG | $27.60 | $64.09 | +132% |
| LCI Industries, LCII | $101.98 | $156.35 | +53% |
| Sanlorenzo S.p.A SL | €37.94 | €37.41 | −1% |
| Ferretti S.p.A 9638 | HK$36.00 | HK$51.23 | +42% |
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