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Patrick Industries Inc (PATK) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $2.7B · ISIN US7033431039

What is Patrick Industries Inc really worth?

PI Patrick Industries Inc logo Patrick Industries Inc PATK · US
Price$81.59
Fair Value$85.54
Upside+4.8%
Quality54/100

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of $85.54.

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Strengths

Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +9.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.5% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
!Narrow moat 43/100

For context

·2.13% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $46.99 – $106.92

Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Share price −6.1% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range ($46.99 to $106.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$144.51 $26.44 Fair Value $85.54 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $26.44 – $144.51 · fair‑value band $46.99 – $106.92 · the $81.59 price screens below the $85.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.

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Analysis

Patrick Industries Inc (PATK) currently trades at $81.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $85.54, implying the stock looks roughly 4.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $98.31 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the $81.59 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $23.93, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Patrick Industries Inc generated revenue of $3.9B at a net margin of 3.5%. Revenue declined 0.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.7%. Net debt stands at $1.6B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $46.99 (bear case) to $106.92 (bull case); at $81.59, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at 5%, PATK screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.46 per share, which is 1.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $51.82 $118.19 $227.69 75
Growth DCF $51.16 $111.83 $208.37 74
Residual Income $32.13 $36.57 $62.56 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $51.82 $118.19 $227.69 75
Owner Earnings $43.03 $102.90 $201.67 71
5Y Revenue Exit $41.62 $98.31 $174.42 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $72.04 $160.36 $270.65 72
5Y P/E Exit $31.29 $77.23 $128.63 68
10Y Revenue Exit $41.89 $95.94 $176.99 63
10Y EBITDA Exit $63.97 $140.12 $254.93 65
10Y P/E Exit $37.66 $80.93 $139.90 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $27.70 $123.94 $169.84 64
Lynch FV $32.25 $46.07 $59.89 61
PEG = 1.0 $32.25 $46.07 $59.89 57
EPV $26.26 $36.39 $45.13 73
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $14.64 $29.17 $44.18 67
DDM Multi-Stage $14.64 $25.21 $30.79 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $64.15 $85.54 $106.92 63
P/S Multiple $51.93 $69.25 $86.56 58
P/B Multiple $51.93 $69.25 $86.56 55
EV/EBIT $68.24 $103.61 $138.99 65
EV/EBITDA $93.32 $137.05 $180.79 66
EV/Revenue $37.85 $70.32 $102.78 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $17.86 $23.93 $35.72 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $51.16 $111.83 $208.37 74
Rev-Margin DCF $41.62 $97.22 $168.25 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income $32.13 $36.57 $62.56 74
ROIC Compounder $26.26 $37.14 $58.22 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $52.59 $75.12 $97.66 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($98.31) versus Asset-Based ($23.93). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 21.0
P/S ratio 0.72 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $3.89 price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.0
Dividend yield 2.1% payout 44.7%
Net margin 3.4% FY2025
Return on equity 11.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 11.7% avg 5y
Operating margin 6.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $3.9B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −0.6% 3y avg −6.8%
EPS growth (YoY) −0.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $246M FY2025
Net debt $1.6B FY2025 · ≈ 6.6 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25

Profitability 53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 82
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 54
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 18
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 26
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Patrick Industries, Inc. manufactures and distributes component and materials for recreational vehicle, marine, powersports, manufactured housing, and industrial markets in the United States, Mexico, China, and Canada. The company operates through Manufacturing and Distribution segments.

Full company description

Patrick Industries, Inc. manufactures and distributes component and materials for recreational vehicle, marine, powersports, manufactured housing, and industrial markets in the United States, Mexico, China, and Canada. The company operates through Manufacturing and Distribution segments. Its Manufacturing segment manufactures and sells laminated for furniture, shelving, wall, countertop, and cabinet products; cabinet doors, fiberglass bath fixtures, and tile systems; vinyl printing, amplifiers, tower speakers, soundbars, and subwoofers; solid surface, granite, and quartz countertop fabrication; aluminum products; fiberglass and plastic components; decorative vinyl and paper laminated panels; softwoods lumber; custom cabinetry; polymer-based and other flooring products; and dash panels. This segment also provides wrapped vinyl, paper, and hardwood profile mouldings; interior passage doors; air handling products; slide-out trim and fascia; treated, untreated, and laminated plywood; fiberglass and plastic helm systems and components; boat towers, tops, trailers, and frames; adhesives and sealants; thermoformed shower surrounds; specialty bath, and closet building products; wiring and wire harnesses; aluminum and plastic fuel tanks; CNC molds, composite parts, and marine hardware and accessories; slotwall panels and components; and other products. The company's Distribution segment distributes pre-finished wall and ceiling panels, drywall and finishing products, electronic and audio systems, appliances, and marine accessories; wiring, electrical, and plumbing products; fiber reinforced polyester products; and cement siding, raw and processed lumber, interior passage, roofing, laminate, and ceramic flooring, shower doors, furniture, fireplaces and surrounds, interior and exterior lighting products, and other products. This segment also offers transportation and logistics services. Patrick Industries, Inc. was incorporated in 1959 and is based in Elkhart, Indiana.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Patrick Industries Inc reported revenue of $4.0B in FY2025 versus $4.1B in FY2021, a compound −0.8%/yr. Reported net income was $135M in FY2025, compounding −12.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$4.0B
Latest YoY
+6.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+2.6% (0.5 + 2.1)
Revenue −0.8%/yr
FY21 $4.1B
FY22 $4.9B
FY23 $3.5B
FY24 $3.7B
FY25 $4.0B
Net income −12.0%/yr
FY21 $225M
FY22 $328M
FY23 $143M
FY24 $138M
FY25 $135M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +10.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share +13.0 %

of which total revenue +16.2 % · buybacks/dilution −2.8 %

EBIT margin −0.4 %
Tax rate +1.8 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −3.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Patrick Industries Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PATK

Peer Group

Recreational Vehicles · 37 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 54 · Above median
Fair Value upside +5% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Revenue growth −1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.1% · Below median
Debt / equity 1.08× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Recreational Vehicles median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 21.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.32× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.70× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 11.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 9.0× · Pricier than median
PEG 3.46× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE40 · sector 28
FUTURE0 · sector 3
PAST47 · sector 12
HEALTH46 · sector 89
DIVIDEND43 · sector 58

Insider activity: 66/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Recreational Vehicles stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co 603129 ¥283.50 ¥199.10 −30%
Brunswick Corporation BC $82.30 $13.56 −84%
BRP Inc DOO C$88.23 C$86.81 −2%
Polaris Inc PII $63.78 $29.83 −53%
THOR Industries, Inc THO $77.02 $97.14 +26%
Trigano S.A TRI €152.20 €273.48 +80%
Harley-Davidson, Inc HOG $27.60 $64.09 +132%
LCI Industries, LCII $101.98 $156.35 +53%
Sanlorenzo S.p.A SL €37.94 €37.41 −1%
Ferretti S.p.A 9638 HK$36.00 HK$51.23 +42%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Patrick Industries Inc (PATK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $85.54 versus a price of $81.59, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of PATK?
Our model-based fair value for Patrick Industries Inc is $85.54 (as of Sep 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $81.59.
What is the quality score of PATK?
Patrick Industries Inc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Patrick Industries Inc (PATK)?
Patrick Industries Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 3, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of PATK?
The net profit margin of Patrick Industries Inc is about 3.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Patrick Industries Inc pay a dividend?
Patrick Industries Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.13% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 3, 2026).
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