Ferretti S.p.A (9638) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$11.3B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$51.06 to HK$50.96 (−0.2%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price +9.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 42% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$34.35 to HK$63.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
52‑month range HK$16.06 – HK$40.05 · fair‑value band HK$34.35 – HK$63.62 · the HK$36.00 price screens below the HK$50.96 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Ferretti S.p.A (9638) currently trades at HK$36.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$50.96, implying the stock looks roughly 41.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Ferretti S.p.A generated revenue of HK$1.4B at a net margin of 6.5%. Revenue grew 7.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$106M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$34.35 (bear case) to HK$63.62 (bull case); at HK$36.00, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -1% fair-value upside, at 42%, 9638 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$5.57) versus Dividend Discount (HK$1.61). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ferretti S.p.A. designs, constructs, markets, and sells yachts and vessels under the Riva, Wally, Ferretti Yachts, Pershing, Itama, Easy Boat, CRN, and Custom Line brand names. It offers luxury composite yachts, made-to-measure yachts, superyachts with various features, and ancillary services; and owns and operates shipyards.
Full company description
Ferretti S.p.A. designs, constructs, markets, and sells yachts and vessels under the Riva, Wally, Ferretti Yachts, Pershing, Itama, Easy Boat, CRN, and Custom Line brand names. It offers luxury composite yachts, made-to-measure yachts, superyachts with various features, and ancillary services; and owns and operates shipyards. The company also provides yacht brokerage, chartering, and management services, as well as after-sales and refitting services; engages in brand extension activities, such as lounges; manufactures and installs wooden furnishings and kinetics for nautical interiors; and manufactures and sells coastal patrol vessel by the FSD and Wally sailing yachts. The company operates in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific, as well as the North, Central, and South America. Ferretti S.p.A. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Forlì, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ferretti S.p.A reported revenue of HK$1.3B in FY2025 versus HK$956M in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$90.0M in FY2025, compounding +24.4%/yr from FY2021.
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Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
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| BRP Inc DOO | C$89.11 | C$86.81 | -3% |
| Polaris Inc PII | $68.52 | $29.83 | -56% |
| THOR Industries, Inc THO | $78.97 | $97.14 | +23% |
| Trigano S.A TRI | €155.50 | €273.48 | +76% |
| Patrick Industries, Inc PATK | $86.76 | $85.54 | -1% |
| Harley-Davidson, Inc HOG | $25.97 | $64.09 | +147% |
| LCI Industries, LCII | $107.15 | $156.35 | +46% |
| Sanlorenzo S.p.A SL | €39.54 | €37.41 | -5% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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