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Ferretti S.p.A (9638) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$11.3B

FS Ferretti S.p.A 9638 · HK
PriceHK$36.00
Fair ValueHK$50.96
Upside+41.6%
Quality54/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 6.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
0.32% dividend yield
Narrow moat 39/100
Evidence: High Range HK$34.35 – HK$63.62 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$51.06 to HK$50.96 (−0.2%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price +9.1% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 42% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$34.35 to HK$63.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

HK$40.05 HK$16.06 Fair Value HK$50.96 Mar 2022 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

52‑month range HK$16.06 – HK$40.05 · fair‑value band HK$34.35 – HK$63.62 · the HK$36.00 price screens below the HK$50.96 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Ferretti S.p.A (9638) currently trades at HK$36.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$50.96, implying the stock looks roughly 41.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Ferretti S.p.A generated revenue of HK$1.4B at a net margin of 6.5%. Revenue grew 7.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$106M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$34.35 (bear case) to HK$63.62 (bull case); at HK$36.00, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -1% fair-value upside, at 42%, 9638 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$3.17 HK$5.31 HK$9.00 80
Residual Income HK$2.42 HK$2.67 HK$3.92 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$3.26 HK$5.47 HK$8.39 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$3.21 HK$5.57 HK$9.79 38
Owner Earnings HK$3.01 HK$5.20 HK$9.12 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$3.26 HK$5.55 HK$8.71 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$4.32 HK$7.78 HK$12.22 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$4.12 HK$7.36 HK$11.14 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$3.12 HK$5.31 HK$8.78 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$3.93 HK$6.96 HK$11.77 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$3.79 HK$6.65 HK$10.84 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$1.81 HK$8.91 HK$12.29 54
Lynch FV HK$2.40 HK$3.43 HK$4.46 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$2.40 HK$3.43 HK$4.46 46
EPV HK$2.34 HK$2.65 HK$2.92 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.9200 HK$1.91 HK$3.03 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.9200 HK$1.61 HK$2.00 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$4.39 HK$5.85 HK$7.31 63
P/S Multiple HK$3.39 HK$4.52 HK$5.65 58
P/B Multiple HK$3.39 HK$4.52 HK$5.65 55
EV/EBIT HK$4.66 HK$6.06 HK$7.46 53
EV/EBITDA HK$5.17 HK$6.74 HK$8.31 54
EV/Revenue HK$3.29 HK$4.50 HK$5.72 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.39 HK$1.86 HK$2.77 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$3.17 HK$5.31 HK$9.00 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$3.26 HK$5.47 HK$8.39 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$2.42 HK$2.67 HK$3.92 76
ROIC Compounder HK$2.34 HK$2.65 HK$3.13 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$3.79 HK$5.41 HK$7.03 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$5.57) versus Dividend Discount (HK$1.61). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$1.4B
Revenue growth (YoY) +7.5%
Net margin 6.5%
Return on equity 9.8%
Free cash flow HK$70.3M FY2025
P/E ratio 13.9 as of Jul 3, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 8.9%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.1300
Dividend yield 0.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +5.7%
Net cash HK$106M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 82
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 64
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 76
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 88
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 70
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Ferretti S.p.A. designs, constructs, markets, and sells yachts and vessels under the Riva, Wally, Ferretti Yachts, Pershing, Itama, Easy Boat, CRN, and Custom Line brand names. It offers luxury composite yachts, made-to-measure yachts, superyachts with various features, and ancillary services; and owns and operates shipyards.

Full company description

Ferretti S.p.A. designs, constructs, markets, and sells yachts and vessels under the Riva, Wally, Ferretti Yachts, Pershing, Itama, Easy Boat, CRN, and Custom Line brand names. It offers luxury composite yachts, made-to-measure yachts, superyachts with various features, and ancillary services; and owns and operates shipyards. The company also provides yacht brokerage, chartering, and management services, as well as after-sales and refitting services; engages in brand extension activities, such as lounges; manufactures and installs wooden furnishings and kinetics for nautical interiors; and manufactures and sells coastal patrol vessel by the FSD and Wally sailing yachts. The company operates in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific, as well as the North, Central, and South America. Ferretti S.p.A. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Forlì, Italy.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Ferretti S.p.A reported revenue of HK$1.3B in FY2025 versus HK$956M in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$90.0M in FY2025, compounding +24.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 71/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$1.3B
Latest YoY
−4.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.9%
Avg. growth/yr (24Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.8%
Revenue +7.6%/yr
FY21 HK$956M
FY22 HK$1.0B
FY23 HK$1.1B
FY24 HK$1.3B
FY25 HK$1.3B
Net income +24.4%/yr
FY21 HK$37.5M
FY22 HK$60.3M
FY23 HK$83.0M
FY24 HK$87.9M
FY25 HK$90.0M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ferretti S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9638

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is Ferretti S.p.A (9638) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$50.96 versus a price of HK$36.00, about +42% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9638?
Our model-based fair value for Ferretti S.p.A is HK$50.96 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$36.00.
What is the quality score of 9638?
Ferretti S.p.A has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Ferretti S.p.A (9638)?
Ferretti S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 9638?
The net profit margin of Ferretti S.p.A is about 6.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Ferretti S.p.A pay a dividend?
Ferretti S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.32% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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