Harley-Davidson, Inc (HOG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $2.7B
Harley-Davidson, Inc
HOG · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated today
Share price +11.0% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 130% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($48.15). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.06 – $47.52 · fair‑value band $48.15 – $80.02 · the $27.85 price screens below the $64.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Harley-Davidson, Inc (HOG) currently trades at $27.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $64.09, implying the stock looks roughly 130.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Harley-Davidson, Inc generated revenue of $4.3B at a net margin of 5.3%. Revenue declined 11.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $38.0M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $48.15 (bear case) to $80.02 (bull case); at $27.85, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -1% fair-value upside, at 130%, HOG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($68.26) versus Dividend Discount ($10.19). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company, LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services.
Full company description
Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company, LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. The Harley-Davidson Motor Company segment designs, manufactures, and sells motorcycles, including cruiser, trike, Grand American touring, standard, sportbike, adventure touring, and dual sport, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, and apparel, as well as licenses its trademarks and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels. The LiveWire segment sells electric motorcycles, balance bikes for kids, electric bikes, parts and accessories, apparel, and related parts and services. The Harley-Davidson Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open-account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, such as installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale insurance and voluntary protection products. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Harley-Davidson, Inc reported revenue of $4.5B in FY2025 versus $5.3B in FY2021, a compound −4.3%/yr. Reported net income was $339M in FY2025, compounding −15.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −1.8 pp · buybacks/dilution +4.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch HOG: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Tilley Harley-Davidson Hosts Freedom Revival 70's Classic Motorcycle Show in Statesville, NC on Aug 29, 2026
- Harley-Davidson Director Nova Buys 40,000 Shares for $983,000. What Does This Say About HOG's Prospects in 2026?
- Looking for a Fast-paced Momentum Stock at a Bargain? Consider Harley-Davidson (HOG)
Peer Group
Recreational Vehicles · 38 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Recreational Vehicles median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Recreational Vehicles stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
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| Brunswick Corporation BC | $81.41 | $13.56 | -83% |
| BRP Inc DOO | C$89.11 | C$86.81 | -3% |
| Polaris Inc PII | $68.52 | $29.83 | -56% |
| THOR Industries, Inc THO | $78.97 | $97.14 | +23% |
| Trigano S.A TRI | €155.50 | €273.48 | +76% |
| Patrick Industries, Inc PATK | $86.76 | $85.54 | -1% |
| LCI Industries, LCII | $107.15 | $156.35 | +46% |
| Sanlorenzo S.p.A SL | €39.54 | €37.41 | -5% |
| Ferretti S.p.A 9638 | HK$36.00 | HK$50.96 | +42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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