Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $2.7B · ISIN US4128221086
What is Harley-Davidson Inc really worth?
Harley-Davidson Inc
HOG · US
A solid business, trading 57% below our fair value of $64.09.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +4.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($48.15). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.06 – $47.52 · fair‑value band $48.15 – $80.02 · the $27.67 price screens below the $64.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) currently trades at $27.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $64.09, implying the stock looks roughly 56.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $68.26 per share, and 21 of the 25 models we run sit above the $27.67 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $10.19, and 4 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Harley-Davidson Inc generated revenue of $4.3B at a net margin of 5.3%. Revenue declined 11.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $38.0M. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $48.15 (bear case) to $80.02 (bull case); at $27.67, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at 132%, HOG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.8608 per share, which is 1.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($68.26) versus Dividend Discount ($10.19). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (82).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company, LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services.
Full company description
Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company, LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. The Harley-Davidson Motor Company segment designs, manufactures, and sells motorcycles, including cruiser, trike, Grand American touring, standard, sportbike, adventure touring, and dual sport, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, and apparel, as well as licenses its trademarks and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels. The LiveWire segment sells electric motorcycles, balance bikes for kids, electric bikes, parts and accessories, apparel, and related parts and services. The Harley-Davidson Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open-account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, such as installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale insurance and voluntary protection products. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Harley-Davidson Inc reported revenue of $4.5B in FY2025 versus $5.3B in FY2021, a compound −4.3%/yr. Reported net income was $339M in FY2025, compounding −15.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −1.8 % · buybacks/dilution +4.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Zacks Industry Outlook General Motors, PACCAR, Ford and Harley-Davidson
- Harley Davidson (HOG) Rebound Puts Fair Value Back In Focus
- Harley Davidson (HOG) Stock Looks Cheap On Earnings While Broader Checks Look Pricey
- Harley-Davidson in the crosshairs of Canada's anti-American backlash
Peer Group
Recreational Vehicles · 37 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Recreational Vehicles median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Recreational Vehicles stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
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| BRP Inc DOO | C$88.23 | C$86.81 | −2% |
| Polaris Inc PII | $63.78 | $29.83 | −53% |
| THOR Industries, Inc THO | $77.02 | $97.14 | +26% |
| Trigano S.A TRI | €152.20 | €273.48 | +80% |
| Patrick Industries, Inc PATK | $81.30 | $85.54 | +5% |
| LCI Industries, LCII | $101.98 | $156.35 | +53% |
| Sanlorenzo S.p.A SL | €37.94 | €37.41 | −1% |
| Ferretti S.p.A 9638 | HK$36.00 | HK$51.23 | +42% |
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