Otsuka Holdings (OTSKY) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $35.4B
Otsuka Holdings
OTSKY · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +14.4% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 15% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($28.58 to $60.75) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from $28.58 (bear) to $60.75 (bull), base $44.88. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 69/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.76 – $40.45 · fair‑value band $28.58 – $60.75 · the $39.05 price screens below the $44.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Otsuka Holdings (OTSKY) currently trades at $39.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $44.88, implying the stock looks roughly 14.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Otsuka Holdings generated revenue of $2.5T at a net margin of 15.0%. Revenue grew 8.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $307B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $28.58 (bear case) to $60.75 (bull case); at $39.05, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -20% fair-value upside, at 15%, OTSKY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($44.95) versus Asset-Based ($11.98). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. engages in the pharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals, consumer products, and other businesses worldwide.
Full company description
Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. engages in the pharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals, consumer products, and other businesses worldwide. It develops pharmaceutical products in the fields of psychiatry, neurology, oncology, cardiovascular and renal system, autoimmune space digestive system, ophthalmology, and diagnostics, as well as intravenous solutions and medical devices. It also provides clinical testing, medical equipment and tools, food products, cosmetics, functional food products, chemical products, soft drinks, beverages, analytical and measurement equipment, nutritional products, vehicle headlight testers, synthetic resin molded products, paper products, quasi-drugs, household products, and packaging materials and electronic parts. In addition, it offers IT solutions; adhesive tapes; flaky titanate and compounds; infusion and clinical nutrition products; hydrazine; plant-based food products; reinsurance underwriting services; wine; stable isotopes; food supplements; software and services for management of mental healthcare systems; anticancer drugs; terracess; bio-pesticides; dietetic food products; spring and mineral water; and polyolefin foams. Further, it engages in the warehousing and transport, medical device operational management, shared service, environmental health management, and venture capital and incubation businesses; rental of medical devices and related products; purchase and sale of agricultural products; import and export trading business; tuberculosis research and development activities; rental of space and office businesses; manufacturing and development of xenotransplantation products; and processing and marketing of functional films, as well as planning, design, production, and construction of ceramic boards and arts, ceramic walls, reliefs, terracotta, ceramic OT and portraits, and ceramic sign boards; and operation of travel agency, and Hotel Ridge and California Table. The company was founded in 1921 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Otsuka Holdings reported revenue of $2.6T in FY2025 versus $1.5T in FY2021, a compound +14.6%/yr. Reported net income was $381B in FY2025, compounding +32.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.6 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - General · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly and Company LLY | $1,220 | $389.47 | -68% |
| Johnson & Johnson, JNJ | $260.86 | $169.04 | -35% |
| AbbVie Inc ABBV | $248.76 | $67.72 | -73% |
| Roche Holding 1RO | €392.80 | €240.14 | -39% |
| Merck & Co MRK | €115.42 | €118.21 | +2% |
| Novartis AG NVSN | 2,742 MXN | 1,964 MXN | -28% |
| AstraZeneca PLC AZN | $158.50 | $127.32 | -20% |
| Novo Nordisk A/S NOVOB | kr 299.50 | kr 409.46 | +37% |
| Sanofi SNYN | 770.00 MXN | 1,041 MXN | +35% |
| GSK plc GSKN | 917.00 MXN | 879.08 MXN | -4% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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