Novartis AG (NVSN) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · MX · Market cap 5.2T MXN
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 2,379 MXN to 1,964 MXN (−17.4%) since Jul 12, 2026. Share price +5.4% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 28% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- A fairly wide model range (1,328 MXN to 2,715 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1,283 MXN – 2,867 MXN · fair‑value band 1,328 MXN – 2,715 MXN · the 2,742 MXN price screens above the 1,964 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Novartis AG (NVSN) currently trades at 2,742 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,964 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 28.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Novartis AG generated revenue of 56.6B MXN at a net margin of 23.9%. Revenue declined 0.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 34.9%. Net debt stands at 22.0B MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 1,328 MXN (bear case) to 2,715 MXN (bull case); at 2,742 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at -28%, NVSN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (122.53 MXN) versus Asset-Based (16.20 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 77 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells pharmaceutical medicines in Switzerland and internationally.
Full company description
Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells pharmaceutical medicines in Switzerland and internationally. The company offers Entresto, an angiotensin receptorneprilysin inhibitor to treat symptomatic chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF); Cosentyx to treat plaque psoriasis, pso riatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and nonradiographic axial spondy loarthritis; Kisqali, a selective oral cyclin dependent inhibitor of kinases 4 and 6 (CDK4/6); Promacta/Revolade to treat immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), thrombocytopenia, and patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA); Tafinlar+Mekinist, an oral combination therapy to treat patients with certain types of cancers; and Jakavi for the treatment of myelofibrosis, polycythemia vera, and acute or chronic graftversushost disease (GvHD). It also provides Tasigna to treat philadelphia chromosomepositive chronic myeloid leukemia in the chronic and/or accelerated phase; Xolair for the treatment of allergic asthma and nasal polyps or severe chronic rhinosi nusitis with nasal polyps; Ilaris to treat fever syndromes, Still's disease, and acute gouty arthritis; Pluvicto to treat prostatespecific membrane anti genpositive metastatic castrationresistant prostate cancer; Sandostatin SC and Sandostatin LAR to treat acromegaly carcinoid tumors and other types of functional gastro intestinal and pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors; Zolgensma for the treatment of genetic root cause of spinal muscular atrophy; Lucentis; Leqvio to reduce LDL cholesterol; Lutathera; Scemblix; and Fabhalta. The company focuses on therapeutic areas, such as cardiovascular, renal and metabolic, immunology, neuroscience, oncology, and hematology. It has a license and collaboration agreement with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize Leqvio (inclisiran), a therapy to reduce LDL cholesterol. Novartis AG was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Novartis AG reported revenue of 56.7B MXN in FY2025 versus 52.9B MXN in FY2021, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was 14.0B MXN in FY2025, compounding −12.7%/yr from FY2021.
NVSN screens 28% overvalued. Compare with Eli Lilly and Company →
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly and Company LLY | $1,220 | $389.47 | -68% |
| Johnson & Johnson, JNJ | $260.86 | $169.04 | -35% |
| AbbVie Inc ABBV | $248.76 | $67.72 | -73% |
| Roche Holding 1RO | €392.80 | €240.14 | -39% |
| Merck & Co MRK | €115.42 | €118.21 | +2% |
| AstraZeneca PLC AZN | $158.50 | $127.32 | -20% |
| Novo Nordisk A/S NOVOB | kr 299.50 | kr 409.46 | +37% |
| Sanofi SNYN | 770.00 MXN | 1,041 MXN | +35% |
| GSK plc GSKN | 917.00 MXN | 879.08 MXN | -4% |
| Bayer Aktiengesellschaft BAYER | 17,685 HUF | 14,810 HUF | -16% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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