ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $36.4B · ISIN US6821891057
What is ON Semiconductor Corporation really worth?
ON Semiconductor Corporation
ON · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 348% above our fair value of $16.43.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 1, 2026, revised from $8.71 to $16.43 (+88.7%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price −8.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($20.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.95 – $133.93 · fair‑value band $12.32 – $20.53 · the $73.65 price screens above the $16.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) currently trades at $73.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.43, implying the stock looks roughly 348.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $76.69 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $73.65 price. Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at $7.20, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, ON Semiconductor Corporation generated revenue of $6.1B at a net margin of 9.5%. Revenue grew 4.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.5%. Net debt stands at $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $12.32 (bear case) to $20.53 (bull case); at $73.65, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −78%, ON screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.9203 per share, which is 5.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($76.69) versus Earnings-Based ($1.59). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
ON Semiconductor Corporation provides intelligent sensing and power solutions in Hong Kong, Singapore, the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Power Solutions Group, Analog and Mixed-Signal Group, and Intelligent Sensing Group.
Full company description
ON Semiconductor Corporation provides intelligent sensing and power solutions in Hong Kong, Singapore, the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Power Solutions Group, Analog and Mixed-Signal Group, and Intelligent Sensing Group. The Power Solutions Group segment offers discrete, module, and integrated semiconductor devices designed to enable power conversion, including power switching, signal conditioning, and circuit protection technologies. Its Analog and Mixed-Signal Group segment designs and develops analog and mixed-signal solutions, including power management, sensor interface, connectivity, and standard products for automotive, industrial automation, AI data centers, computing, and mobile end markets. The Intelligent Sensing Group segment develops complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor image sensors, image signal processors, short-wave infrared sensors, and other products, as well as photon-counting technologies, including single-photon avalanche diode arrays and silicon photomultiplier devices for depth sensing, factory automation, safety systems, and robotics industries. ON Semiconductor Corporation was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ON Semiconductor Corporation reported revenue of $6.0B in FY2025 versus $6.7B in FY2021, a compound −2.9%/yr. Reported net income was $121M in FY2025, compounding −41.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.1 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ON screens 348% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- STM vs. ON: Which EV Semiconductor Stock Is More Compelling?
- ON Semiconductor (ON) Stock May Be 2% Undervalued As AI Data Center Wins Build
Peer Group
Semiconductors · 325 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | $227.98 | $98.98 | −57% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM | $427.30 | $296.10 | −31% |
| Broadcom Inc AVGO | $371.54 | $118.27 | −68% |
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 1,647,000 KRW | 1,481,291 KRW | −10% |
| Micron Technology, Inc MU | $932.86 | $148.38 | −84% |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD | $476.67 | $55.02 | −88% |
| Intel Corporation INTC | $92.09 | $35.41 | −62% |
| Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN | $266.54 | $78.54 | −71% |
| QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM | $164.78 | $147.20 | −11% |
| MediaTek Inc 2454 | 3,845 TWD | 1,559 TWD | −59% |
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