Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Basic Materials · ZA · Market cap 125B ZAC · ISIN ZAE000298253
At a glance
NPNortham Platinum Holdings LtdNPH · JSE
PriceR319.65
Fair ValueR64.28
Upside−79.9%
Quality52/100
A solid business, but trading 397% above our fair value of R64.28.
As of Aug 22, 2026, the fair value of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is R64.28 per share against a price of R319.65, so the fair value sits 80% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +13.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 22.0% net margin
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/13)
!Moderate moat 62/100
Evidence: HighRange R48.21 to R80.35
Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +19.4% over the past month.
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What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R80.35). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R86.85 – R452.48 · fair‑value band R48.21 – R80.35 · the R319.65 price screens above the R64.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH) currently trades at R319.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R64.28, implying the stock looks roughly 397.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R78.26 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the R319.65 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R13.55, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd generated revenue of 41.6B ZAR at a net margin of 22.0%. Revenue grew 60.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 26.3%. Net debt stands at 5.5B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026
Scenario range: R48.21 (bear) to R80.35 (bull), the price of R319.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −80%, NPH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (13.95 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (R13.55 to R143.60). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidenceR61.84R61.89R57.7876
EPVR49.85R59.97R68.8374
ROIC CompounderR49.85R59.97R68.8372
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddR25.71R143.60R199.4163
Lynch FVR40.15R57.36R74.5761
PEG = 1.0R40.15R57.36R74.5757
EPVR49.85R59.97R68.8374
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMR7.73R16.07R25.4966
DDM Multi-StageR7.73R13.55R16.8666
Multiples
P/E MultipleR48.21R64.28R80.3563
P/S MultipleR48.21R64.28R80.3558
P/B MultipleR48.21R64.28R80.3555
EV/EBITR82.48R113.60R144.7266
EV/EBITDAR84.34R116.07R147.8167
EV/RevenueR70.04R104.71R139.3853
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)R40.82R54.70R81.6554
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidenceR61.84R61.89R57.7876
ROIC CompounderR49.85R59.97R68.8372
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/ER54.78R78.26R101.7367
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (R78.26) versus Dividend Discount (R13.55). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio13.9
P/S ratio0.63P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)R22.94price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.9
Dividend yield2.8%payout 39.2%
Net margin4.5%FY2025
Return on equity26.3%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)21.7%avg 5y
Operating margin24.9%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)41.6B ZARTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+60.0%3y avg −1.2%
EPS growth (YoY)+31.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow−231M ZACFY2025
Net debt5.5B ZACFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality52/100
Of which business quality 49
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Profitability27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth26
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength63
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment71
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility35
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum53
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum63
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance75
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Northam Platinum Holdings Limited, through its subsidiary, Northam Platinum Limited, engages in the production and sale of platinum group metals. It operates through four segments: Zondereinde mine, Booysendal mine, Eland mine, and the US recycling operations.
Full company description
Northam Platinum Holdings Limited, through its subsidiary, Northam Platinum Limited, engages in the production and sale of platinum group metals. It operates through four segments: Zondereinde mine, Booysendal mine, Eland mine, and the US recycling operations. The company explores for platinum, palladium, rhodium, gold, iridium, ruthenium, silver, nickel, copper, cobalt, and chrome deposits. It holds interests in the Booysendal mine located on the eastern limb of the Bushveld complex; the Zondereinde mine located in the northern end of the western limb of the Bushveld complex; and the Eland mine located in the south-eastern portion of the western limb of the Bushveld complex. The company also offers recycling services. Northam Platinum Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 32.9B ZAR in FY2025 versus 32.6B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5B ZAR in FY2025, compounding −36.9%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
32.9B ZAR
Latest YoY
+6.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (12Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.2%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in ZAR) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−5.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−8.2%
Dividend yield2.8%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −8.2% vs 10Y 65.8%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29.2% (2020) → 10.6% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop713% (2016) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in ZAR
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Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 0
FUTURE100· sector 94
PAST100· sector 0
HEALTH83· sector 99
DIVIDEND56· sector 42
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).
Is Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R64.28 versus a price of R319.65, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NPH?
Our model-based fair value for Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is R64.28 (as of Aug 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R319.65.
What is the quality score of NPH?
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R64.28 (as of Aug 22, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario R48.21, optimistic scenario R80.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R64.28, about −80% upside versus a price of R319.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R48.21, optimistic scenario R80.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 41.6B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Aug 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of NPH?
The net profit margin of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is about 22.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 22.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.82% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 22, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd it is R64.28 per share (as of Aug 22, 2026), against a price of R319.65. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 22, 2026, NPH trades above its calculated fair value: price R319.65, fair value R64.28, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NPH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R319.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R64.28). For Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd the two are R255.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd at about 125B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Aug 22, 2026). Per share that is R319.65; our models calculate a fair value of R64.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NPH?
Our models span a range for Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario R48.21, base R64.28, optimistic R80.35 per share (as of Aug 22, 2026, price R319.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NPH?
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.9 (as of Aug 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R64.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.9, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 10.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (as of Aug 22, 2026): return on equity 26.3%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., Sibanye Stillwater Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 22, 2026: price R319.65, calculated fair value R64.28 (−80%), Quality Score 52/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NPH calculated?
We run Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R64.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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