Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · ZA · Market cap 94.1B ZAC · ISIN ZAE000298253
What is Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 400% above our fair value of R64.28.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +22.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R80.35). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R86.85 – R452.48 · fair‑value band R48.21 – R80.35 · the R321.26 price screens above the R64.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
Analysis
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH) currently trades at R321.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R64.28, implying the stock looks roughly 399.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R78.26 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the R321.26 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R13.55, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd generated revenue of 41.6B ZAR at a net margin of 22.0%. Revenue grew 60.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 26.3%. Net debt stands at 5.5B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R48.21 (bear case) to R80.35 (bull case); at R321.26, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −80%, NPH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 13.95 ZAR per share, which is 21.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (R78.26) versus Dividend Discount (R13.55). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Northam Platinum Holdings Limited, through its subsidiary, Northam Platinum Limited, engages in the production and sale of platinum group metals. It operates through four segments: Zondereinde mine, Booysendal mine, Eland mine, and the US recycling operations.
Full company description
Northam Platinum Holdings Limited, through its subsidiary, Northam Platinum Limited, engages in the production and sale of platinum group metals. It operates through four segments: Zondereinde mine, Booysendal mine, Eland mine, and the US recycling operations. The company explores for platinum, palladium, rhodium, gold, iridium, ruthenium, silver, nickel, copper, cobalt, and chrome deposits. It holds interests in the Booysendal mine located on the eastern limb of the Bushveld complex; the Zondereinde mine located in the northern end of the western limb of the Bushveld complex; and the Eland mine located in the south-eastern portion of the western limb of the Bushveld complex. The company also offers recycling services. Northam Platinum Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 32.9B ZAR in FY2025 versus 32.6B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5B ZAR in FY2025, compounding −36.9%/yr from FY2021.
NPH screens 400% overvalued. Compare with PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk →
Peer Group
Other Precious Metals & Mining · 103 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk AMMN | 4,480 IDR | 1,021 IDR | −77% |
| Hecla Mining Company HL | $21.43 | $8.14 | −62% |
| Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A. BVN | $35.12 | $29.53 | −16% |
| Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW | $11.85 | $19.35 | +63% |
| China Gold International Resources Corp CGG | C$46.69 | C$25.63 | −45% |
| Artemis Gold Inc ARTG | C$43.62 | C$21.85 | −50% |
| Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp TFPM | $32.25 | $16.03 | −50% |
| PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk. MBMA | 545.00 IDR | 82.43 IDR | −85% |
| Perpetua Resources Corp PPTA | C$34.90 | C$5.80 | −83% |
| Zhaojin International Gold Co 000506 | ¥19.06 | ¥2.84 | −85% |
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