PT Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · ID · Market cap 56.7T IDR (≈ $5.7B)
What is PT Merdeka Battery Materials really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 531% above our fair value of 82.43 IDR.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 9 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 27, 2026, revised from 0.0100 IDR to 82.43 IDR (+824,200.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −5.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (103.04 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
41‑month range 242.00 IDR – 930.00 IDR · fair‑value band 61.82 IDR – 103.04 IDR · the 520.00 IDR price screens above the 82.43 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
PT Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA) currently trades at 520.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 82.43 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 530.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 82.43 IDR per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the 520.00 IDR price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 82.43 IDR, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Merdeka Battery Materials generated revenue of 1.4B IDR at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 7.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.3%. Net debt stands at 749M IDR. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 61.82 IDR (bear case) to 103.04 IDR (bull case); at 520.00 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −84%, MBMA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 7.08 IDR per share, which is 8.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Earnings-Based (82.43 IDR) versus Earnings-Based (82.43 IDR). Highest evidence: Residual Income (68).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk. engages in the mining and processing of nickel, cobalt, and other mineral deposits in Indonesia and China. It operates through Mining, Manufacturing, and Others segments. The company manufactures non-ferrous basic metals; and collects hazardous waste.
Full company description
PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk. engages in the mining and processing of nickel, cobalt, and other mineral deposits in Indonesia and China. It operates through Mining, Manufacturing, and Others segments. The company manufactures non-ferrous basic metals; and collects hazardous waste. It also engages in the limestone industry and quarrying; generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of electricity; electric power plant operation; gravel quarrying; holding company activities; management consulting activities; and support activities for other mining and quarrying. In addition, the company is involved in special telecommunications activities for its own purposes, as well as wholesale trade in forestry and hunting products; palm oil plantation and industrial park; and industry activities. The company was formerly known as PT Hamparan Logistik Nusantara. PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk. was founded in 2019 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia. PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk. operates as a subsidiary of PT Merdeka Energi Nusantara.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Merdeka Battery Materials reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was $29.6M in FY2025, compounding +554.9%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
MBMA screens 531% overvalued. Compare with PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk →
Peer Group
Other Precious Metals & Mining · 103 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk AMMN | 4,480 IDR | 1,021 IDR | −77% |
| Hecla Mining Company HL | $21.43 | $8.14 | −62% |
| Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A. BVN | $35.12 | $29.53 | −16% |
| Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW | $11.85 | $19.35 | +63% |
| China Gold International Resources Corp CGG | C$46.69 | C$25.63 | −45% |
| Artemis Gold Inc ARTG | C$43.62 | C$21.85 | −50% |
| Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp TFPM | $32.25 | $16.03 | −50% |
| Perpetua Resources Corp PPTA | C$34.90 | C$5.80 | −83% |
| Zhaojin International Gold Co 000506 | ¥19.06 | ¥2.84 | −85% |
| Sino-Platinum Metals Co 600459 | ¥21.30 | ¥13.23 | −38% |
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