Nokia Oyj (NOKIA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Nokia Oyj is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Technology · FI · Market cap €60.8B · ISIN FI0009000681
At a glance
NONokia OyjNOKIA · HE
Price€9.24
Fair Value€3.15
Upside−65.9%
Quality61/100
A solid business, but trading 193% above our fair value of €3.15.
As of Sep 5, 2026, the fair value of Nokia Oyj is €3.15 per share against a price of €9.24, so the fair value sits 66% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y −1.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.0% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·1.52% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
!Narrow moat 34/100
!Weak on future: 12 out of 100
!Weak on past: 15 out of 100
Evidence: HighRange €2.37 to €3.94
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +12.4% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€3.94). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.59 – €14.73 · fair‑value band €2.37 – €3.94 · the €9.24 price screens above the €3.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Nokia Oyj (NOKIA) currently trades at €9.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.15, implying the stock looks roughly 193.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €4.20 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the €9.24 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €0.9800, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Nokia Oyj generated revenue of €20.0B at a net margin of 4.0%. Revenue grew 2.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €252M. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Scenario range: €2.37 (bear) to €3.94 (bull), the price of €9.24 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 171% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at −66%, NOKIA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio66.0
P/S ratio2.09P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)€0.1400price ÷ EPS = P/E 66.0
Dividend yield1.5%payout 100%
Net margin3.2%FY2025
Return on equity3.7%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)4.9%avg 5y
Operating margin5.3%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)€20.0BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+2.4%3y avg −7.2%
EPS growth (YoY)−40.8%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow€1.5BFY2025
Net cash€252MFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality61/100
Of which business quality 60
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Profitability30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility43
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum66
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum75
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance89
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Nokia Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides mobile, fixed, and cloud network solutions in North and Latin America, Greater China, India, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates in four segments: Network Infrastructure, Mobile Networks, Cloud and Network Services, and Nokia Technologies.
Full company description
Nokia Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides mobile, fixed, and cloud network solutions in North and Latin America, Greater China, India, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates in four segments: Network Infrastructure, Mobile Networks, Cloud and Network Services, and Nokia Technologies. The company offers fixed network solutions, such as fiber and copper technologies, access infrastructure, in-home Wi-Fi solutions, and cloud and virtualization services; IP network solutions, which delivers IP edge routing and data center networking solutions for residential, mobile, enterprise, and cloud applications; and optical networks solutions, which provides optical transport networks for metro, regional, and long-haul applications. It also provides mobile technology products and services for radio access networks and microwave radio links for transport networks; and network management solutions, as well as network planning, optimization, network deployment, and technical support services. In addition, the company offers cloud and network services, including open, secure, automated, and scalable software and solutions; and 5G core, secure autonomous networks, private wireless and industrial edge, and network APIs. Further, it licenses intellectual property, including patents, technologies, and the Nokia brand. The company serves its products and services to defense communications energy and resources, enterprise and industrial campus, private networks, public sector, and transportation industries. Nokia Oyj was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nokia Oyj reported revenue of €19.9B in FY2025 versus €22.2B in FY2021, a compound −2.7%/yr. Reported net income was €629M in FY2025, compounding −21.1%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€19.9B
Latest YoY
+3.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (30Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+14.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+12.8%
Dividend yield1.5%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −4.6% vs 10Y −16.9%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4.2% (2020) → 8.3% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop261% (2012) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in EUR
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How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−64% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Above median
Valuation Multiples vs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)66.0× · Pricier than median
P/B3.37× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)3.53× · Pricier than median
P/FCF48.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA26.6× · Pricier than median
PEG1.21× · Cheaper than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Nokia Oyj deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+12.5 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years-1.9 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+8.3 %
FCF yield on price2.88 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.9 %
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 0
FUTURE12· sector 39
PAST15· sector 15
HEALTH94· sector 98
DIVIDEND30· sector 24
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Communication Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.15 versus a price of €9.24, about −66% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NOKIA?
Our model-based fair value for Nokia Oyj is €3.15 (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €9.24.
What is the quality score of NOKIA?
Nokia Oyj has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €3.15 (as of Sep 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.37, optimistic scenario €3.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nokia Oyj stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €3.15, about −66% upside versus a price of €9.24 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2.37, optimistic scenario €3.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
Nokia Oyj reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €20.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of NOKIA?
The net profit margin of Nokia Oyj is about 4.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Nokia Oyj pay a dividend?
Nokia Oyj currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.52% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nokia Oyj would have to grow free cash flow by +12.5 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.9 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.9 % per year. As of Sep 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NOKIA use?
Our models discount Nokia Oyj at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.79, country premium for Finland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nokia Oyj it is €3.15 per share (as of Sep 5, 2026), against a price of €9.24. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nokia Oyj stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 5, 2026, NOKIA trades above its calculated fair value: price €9.24, fair value €3.15, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NOKIA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€9.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€3.15). For Nokia Oyj the two are €6.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nokia Oyj worth?
The market values Nokia Oyj at about €60.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 5, 2026). Per share that is €9.24; our models calculate a fair value of €3.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NOKIA?
Our models span a range for Nokia Oyj: cautious scenario €2.37, base €3.15, optimistic €3.94 per share (as of Sep 5, 2026, price €9.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NOKIA?
Nokia Oyj trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 66.0 (as of Sep 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €3.15 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 3.4, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 26.6.
What is the PEG ratio of NOKIA?
The PEG ratio of Nokia Oyj is 1.21 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nokia Oyj (as of Sep 5, 2026): return on equity 3.7%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NOKIA from its 52-week high?
Nokia Oyj trades at €9.24, about 35% below its 52-week high of €14.23 and 171% above the low of €3.40 (as of Sep 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €3.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nokia Oyj?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Zhongji Innolight Co, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Eoptolink Technology Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nokia Oyj stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 5, 2026: price €9.24, calculated fair value €3.15 (−66%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NOKIA calculated?
We run Nokia Oyj through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €3.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Nokia Oyj itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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