Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Cisco Systems Inc stock $118, price $105, upside +12.5%, quality 76 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $35.46 – $129.52 · fair‑value band $75.65 – $159.80 · the $104.89 price screens below the $117.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, develops, and sells technologies that help to power, secure, and draw insights from the internet in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Japan, and China.
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The company offers data center switching; network security, identity and access management, and secure access service edge; threat intelligence, detection, and response solutions; interconnects public and private wireline and mobile networks, delivering connectivity to campus, data center, and branch networks; WEBEX suite, collaboration devices, and contact center; communication platform as a service software, including perpetual licenses, subscription arrangements, and hardware solutions; network assurance, monitoring and analytics, and observability suite; issue resolution, software support, and hardware replacement; professional services, such as planning, design, implementation, and high-value consulting; service and support packages, financing, and managed network services; and regional, national, and international wireline carriers, webscale products, internet, and cable.
It also delivers connectivity to campus, data center, and branch networks; wireless products, including indoor and outdoor wireless coverage designed for seamless roaming use of voice, video, and data applications; end-to-end collaboration solutions through cloud, on-premise, or within hybrid cloud environments, transition collaboration solutions from on-premise to the cloud; and network assurance, monitoring and analytics, and observability suite.
In addition, it offers technical support and advisory services. The company serves businesses, public institutions, governments, and service providers. It sells its products and services directly, through systems integrators, service providers, resellers, and distributors.
Cisco Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock analysis
Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) currently trades at $104.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $117.99, implying the stock looks roughly 11.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $76.10 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $104.89 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $27.23, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $75.65 (bear) to $159.80 (bull), the price of $104.89 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Cisco Systems Inc reported revenue of $63.3B in FY2026 versus $51.6B in FY2022, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was $13.3B in FY2026, compounding +2.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $418B Mega · P/E ratio 31.5 · P/S ratio 6.75 · EPS (TTM) $3.33 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 21.0% · Return on equity 27.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 86 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at 12%, CSCO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$75.65Fair Value $117.99Bull$159.80
Price $104.89 · Upside +12.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 3 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3843 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.5% a year
Revenue growth 38 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.8% vs 5.7%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 24%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.6% a year for the price and +5.2% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Mature networking franchise shows pricing power via high margins and ROE supported by scale and cash conversion, yet limited signals on human capital and insider activity cap overall durability.
Main risk: Competitors such as Arista could capture share in AI data center switching with high-speed Ethernet solutions while white-box and open-source options like SONiC or Cumulus on commodity hardware might pressure Cisco's hardware margins and installed base.
Bull case: Cisco could extend its platform approach with integrated security, observability and AI-optimized silicon to retain enterprise and hyperscaler customers while expanding high-margin subscriptions and services around AI networking demand.
Bear case: If specialized rivals and open or cloud-native alternatives gain traction in AI fabrics and campus networks, Cisco could see hardware revenue and margins erode as customers shift to cheaper or flexible options from Arista, white-box vendors or NaaS providers.
Cisco's latest results highlight strong product revenue growth alongside essentially flat services revenue. Much of the recent acceleration therefore stems from hardware and AI infrastructure sales rather than the steadier recurring service base that has long supported margins. Will the company lift services alongside the product momentum, or will growth remain tied mainly to equipment cycles?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 293 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)27.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)21.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)27.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.39× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)31.5× · Pricier than median
P/B8.50× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cisco Systems Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CSCO
Frequently asked questions
Is Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $117.99 versus a price of $104.89, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CSCO?
Our model-based fair value for Cisco Systems Inc is $117.99 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $104.89.
What is the quality score of CSCO?
Cisco Systems Inc has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $117.99 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $75.65, optimistic scenario $159.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cisco Systems Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $117.99, about +12% upside versus a price of $104.89 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $75.65, optimistic scenario $159.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)?
Cisco Systems Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $63.3B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Cisco Systems Inc pay a dividend?
Cisco Systems Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.58% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cisco Systems Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +16.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.9 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CSCO use?
Our models discount Cisco Systems Inc at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.98, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cisco Systems Inc that is +16.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cisco Systems Inc grew +4.9 % a year. The price currently implies +16.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cisco Systems Inc (+16.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.05 %: that much free cash flow Cisco Systems Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cisco Systems Inc it is $117.99 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $104.89. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cisco Systems Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, CSCO trades below its calculated fair value: price $104.89, fair value $117.99, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CSCO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($104.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($117.99). For Cisco Systems Inc the two are $13.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cisco Systems Inc worth?
The market values Cisco Systems Inc at about $418B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $104.89; our models calculate a fair value of $117.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CSCO?
Our models span a range for Cisco Systems Inc: cautious scenario $75.65, base $117.99, optimistic $159.80 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $104.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CSCO?
Cisco Systems Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.5 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $117.99 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 20.2. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 8.5, P/S 6.8, EV/EBITDA 23.6.
What is the PEG ratio of CSCO?
The PEG ratio of Cisco Systems Inc is 0.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cisco Systems Inc (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 27.3%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CSCO from its 52-week high?
Cisco Systems Inc trades at $104.89, about 19% below its 52-week high of $129.52 and 51% above the low of $69.26 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $117.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cisco Systems Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Zhongji Innolight Co, Motorola Solutions, Inc, Lumentum Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cisco Systems Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $104.89, calculated fair value $117.99 (+12%), Quality Score 76/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CSCO calculated?
We run Cisco Systems Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $117.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Cisco Systems Inc currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $104.89. Our model-based fair value is $117.99, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cisco Systems Inc right now?
A fairly wide model range ($75.65 to $159.80) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) come from?
Earnings per share at Cisco Systems Inc grew +4.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.7 %, EBIT margin −0.7 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Cisco Systems Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)?
The market capitalisation of Cisco Systems Inc is $418B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cisco Systems Inc is 6.75 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)?
Earnings per share at Cisco Systems Inc are $3.33 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)?
The dividend yield of Cisco Systems Inc is 1.6% (payout 49.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)?
The net margin of Cisco Systems Inc is 21.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cisco Systems Inc is 27.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cisco Systems Inc is 12.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)?
The operating margin of Cisco Systems Inc is 27.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)?
Revenue at Cisco Systems Inc is growing +17.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)?
Earnings per share at Cisco Systems Inc are growing +52.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) carry?
The net debt of Cisco Systems Inc is $22.3B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 22, 2026