Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · US · Market cap $478B · ISIN US17275R1023

What is Cisco Systems Inc really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($102.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• A fairly wide model range ($51.06 to $102.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $35.46 – $129.52 · fair‑value band $51.06 – $102.03 · the $108.61 price screens above the $80.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) currently trades at $108.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $80.31, implying the stock looks roughly 35.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $67.67 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $108.61 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $20.79, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Cisco Systems Inc generated revenue of $60.7B at a net margin of 19.7%. Revenue grew 12.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.2%. Net debt stands at $19.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $51.06 (bear case) to $102.03 (bull case); at $108.61, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −54% fair-value upside, at −26%, CSCO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.35 per share, which is 1.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($67.67) versus Asset-Based ($7.96). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, develops, and sells technologies that help to power, secure, and draw insights from the internet in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Japan, and China.

Full company description

Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, develops, and sells technologies that help to power, secure, and draw insights from the internet in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Japan, and China. The company offers data center switching; network security, identity and access management, and secure access service edge; threat intelligence, detection, and response solutions; interconnects public and private wireline and mobile networks, delivering connectivity to campus, data center, and branch networks; WEBEX suite, collaboration devices, and contact center; communication platform as a service software, including perpetual licenses, subscription arrangements, and hardware solutions; network assurance, monitoring and analytics, and observability suite; issue resolution, software support, and hardware replacement; professional services, such as planning, design, implementation, and high-value consulting; service and support packages, financing, and managed network services; and regional, national, and international wireline carriers, webscale products, internet, and cable. It also delivers connectivity to campus, data center, and branch networks; wireless products, including indoor and outdoor wireless coverage designed for seamless roaming use of voice, video, and data applications; end-to-end collaboration solutions through cloud, on-premise, or within hybrid cloud environments, transition collaboration solutions from on-premise to the cloud; and network assurance, monitoring and analytics, and observability suite. In addition, it offers technical support and advisory services. The company serves businesses, public institutions, governments, and service providers. It sells its products and services directly, through systems integrators, service providers, resellers, and distributors. Cisco Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Cisco Systems Inc reported revenue of $56.7B in FY2025 versus $49.8B in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was $10.2B in FY2025, compounding −1.0%/yr from FY2021.

CSCO screens 35% overvalued. Compare with Zhongji Innolight Co →

Peer Group

Communication Equipment · 302 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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