Nokia Corp (NOK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nokia Corp stock $4.10, price $7.88, upside -47.9%, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.79 – $16.85 · fair‑value band $2.94 – $5.31 · the $7.88 price screens above the $4.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
Follow Nokia Corp ADR in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Nokia Corp ADR is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Nokia Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides mobile, fixed, and cloud network solutions in North and Latin America, Greater China, India, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
Show moreShow less
It operates in four segments: Network Infrastructure, Mobile Networks, Cloud and Network Services, and Nokia Technologies.
The company offers fixed network solutions, such as fiber and copper technologies, access infrastructure, in-home Wi-Fi solutions, and cloud and virtualization services; IP network solutions, which delivers IP edge routing and data center networking solutions for residential, mobile, enterprise, and cloud applications; and optical networks solutions, which provides optical transport networks for metro, regional, and long-haul applications.
It also provides mobile technology products and services for radio access networks and microwave radio links for transport networks; and network management solutions, as well as network planning, optimization, network deployment, and technical support services.
In addition, the company offers cloud and network services, including open, secure, automated, and scalable software and solutions; and 5G core, secure autonomous networks, private wireless and industrial edge, and network APIs. Further, it licenses intellectual property, including patents, technologies, and the Nokia brand.
The company serves its products and services to defense communications energy and resources, enterprise and industrial campus, private networks, public sector, and transportation industries. Nokia Oyj was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.
Stock analysis
Nokia Corp (NOK) currently trades at $7.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.10, 47.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $4.50 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the $7.88 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.53, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.94 (bear) to $5.31 (bull), the price of $7.88 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Nokia Corp ADR reported revenue of €19.9B in FY2025 versus €22.2B in FY2021, a compound −2.7%/yr. Reported net income was €651M in FY2025, compounding −20.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $42.2B Large · P/E ratio 60.6 · P/S ratio 2.07 · EPS (TTM) $0.1300 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 3.5% · Return on equity 3.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −48%, NOK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$2.94Fair Value $4.10Bull$5.31
Price $7.88 · Upside -47.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.7% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−7.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3.8% vs −16.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.0% a year for the price and +3.4% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Nokia demonstrates strength in optical systems expanding spectrum for AI workloads between data centers, yet weak profitability and sustained low returns continue to limit evidence of a durable moat.
Main risk: Ongoing competition in core markets and challenges from portfolio adjustments risk offsetting gains in AI-adjacent network upgrades and pressuring business returns.
Nokia is demonstrating how its optical systems can expand usable spectrum by over 20 percent on live routes to support the bandwidth demands of AI workloads between data centers. This plays to its established strengths in communication equipment yet sits alongside moves to exit parts of the enterprise portfolio. Will the gains from these AI-adjacent network upgrades outpace the challenges of portfolio adjustments and competition in core markets?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 293 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−47.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.5% · Below median
Return on assets1.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)7.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)60.6× · Pricier than median
P/B2.01× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)2.07× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow28.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA15.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.91× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)42· sector 57
PAST (return on equity)14· sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)94· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)40· sector 26
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.10 versus a price of $7.88, about −48% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NOK?
Our model-based fair value for Nokia Corp ADR is $4.10 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.88.
What is the quality score of NOK?
Nokia Corp ADR has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nokia Corp (NOK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.10 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.94, optimistic scenario $5.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nokia Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.10, about −48% upside versus a price of $7.88 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.94, optimistic scenario $5.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nokia Corp (NOK)?
Nokia Corp ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €20.4B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Nokia Corp ADR pay a dividend?
Nokia Corp ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 1.99% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nokia Corp (NOK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nokia Corp ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +11.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.9 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NOK use?
Our models discount Nokia Corp ADR at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nokia Corp ADR that is +11.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nokia Corp (NOK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nokia Corp ADR grew -1.9 % a year. The price currently implies +11.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nokia Corp (NOK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nokia Corp ADR (+11.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nokia Corp (NOK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.59 %: that much free cash flow Nokia Corp ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nokia Corp (NOK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nokia Corp ADR it is $4.10 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $7.88. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nokia Corp ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, NOK trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.88, fair value $4.10, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NOK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.10). For Nokia Corp ADR the two are $3.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nokia Corp ADR worth?
The market values Nokia Corp ADR at about $42.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $7.88; our models calculate a fair value of $4.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NOK?
Our models span a range for Nokia Corp ADR: cautious scenario $2.94, base $4.10, optimistic $5.31 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $7.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NOK?
Nokia Corp ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 60.6 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.10 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2019, FY2023, FY2024 ex one-offs: 16.5. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 2.0, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 15.0.
What is the PEG ratio of NOK?
The PEG ratio of Nokia Corp ADR is 0.91 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nokia Corp (NOK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nokia Corp ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 3.5%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NOK from its 52-week high?
Nokia Corp ADR trades at $7.88, about 53% below its 52-week high of $16.85 and 44% above the low of $5.49 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nokia Corp ADR?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Zhongji Innolight Co, Motorola Solutions, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nokia Corp ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $7.88, calculated fair value $4.10 (−48%), Quality Score 54/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NOK calculated?
We run Nokia Corp ADR through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Nokia Corp ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nokia Corp (NOK)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $7.88. Our model-based fair value is $4.10, about −48% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nokia Corp ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($2.94 to $5.31) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Nokia Corp ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Nokia Corp (NOK)?
The market capitalisation of Nokia Corp ADR is $42.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nokia Corp (NOK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nokia Corp ADR is 2.07 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nokia Corp (NOK)?
Earnings per share at Nokia Corp ADR are $0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 60.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nokia Corp (NOK)?
The dividend yield of Nokia Corp ADR is 2.0% (payout 121%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nokia Corp (NOK)?
The net margin of Nokia Corp ADR is 3.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nokia Corp (NOK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nokia Corp ADR is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nokia Corp (NOK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nokia Corp ADR is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nokia Corp (NOK)?
The operating margin of Nokia Corp ADR is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nokia Corp (NOK)?
Revenue at Nokia Corp ADR is growing +8.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nokia Corp (NOK)?
Earnings per share at Nokia Corp ADR are growing −97.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Nokia Corp (NOK) hold?
Nokia Corp ADR holds more cash than debt, €252M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Nokia Corp ADR in the live analysis
One click puts Nokia Corp ADR on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 28,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Oct 22, 2026