Nokia Oyj (NOK) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $75.3B
Nokia Oyj
NOK · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $2.67 to $6.79 (+154.2%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price −9.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 36% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.48). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.79 – $16.85 · fair‑value band $5.09 – $8.48 · the $10.56 price screens above the $6.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Nokia Oyj (NOK) currently trades at $10.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.79, implying the stock looks roughly 35.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Nokia Oyj generated revenue of $20.0B at a net margin of 4.0%. Revenue grew 2.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $252M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.09 (bear case) to $8.48 (bull case); at $10.56, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 167% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -36%, NOK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($3.81) versus Earnings-Based ($1.37). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Nokia Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides mobile, fixed, and cloud network solutions in North and Latin America, Greater China, India, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates in four segments: Network Infrastructure, Mobile Networks, Cloud and Network Services, and Nokia Technologies.
Full company description
Nokia Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides mobile, fixed, and cloud network solutions in North and Latin America, Greater China, India, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates in four segments: Network Infrastructure, Mobile Networks, Cloud and Network Services, and Nokia Technologies. The company offers fixed network solutions, such as fiber and copper technologies, access infrastructure, in-home Wi-Fi solutions, and cloud and virtualization services; IP network solutions, which delivers IP edge routing and data center networking solutions for residential, mobile, enterprise, and cloud applications; and optical networks solutions, which provides optical transport networks for metro, regional, and long-haul applications. It also provides mobile technology products and services for radio access networks and microwave radio links for transport networks; and network management solutions, as well as network planning, optimization, network deployment, and technical support services. In addition, the company offers cloud and network services, including open, secure, automated, and scalable software and solutions; and 5G core, secure autonomous networks, private wireless and industrial edge, and network APIs. Further, it licenses intellectual property, including patents, technologies, and the Nokia brand. The company serves its products and services to defense communications energy and resources, enterprise and industrial campus, private networks, public sector, and transportation industries. Nokia Oyj was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nokia Oyj reported revenue of $19.9B in FY2025 versus $22.2B in FY2021, a compound −2.7%/yr. Reported net income was $651M in FY2025, compounding −20.4%/yr from FY2021.
NOK screens 36% overvalued. Compare with Cisco Systems, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Nokia Declines 28.7% in Three Months: Should You Buy the Dip?
- Polen International Equity adds NOK, MUFG; exits AIVAF, RNMBF among Q2 moves
- Nokia’s (NOK) AI Network Bet Gets A Taiwan Proving Ground
Peer Group
Communication Equipment · 300 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Communication Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cisco Systems, Inc CSCO | $120.43 | $61.53 | -49% |
| Zhongji Innolight Co 300308 | ¥921.00 | ¥171.09 | -81% |
| Foxconn Industrial Internet Co 601138 | ¥65.60 | ¥28.65 | -56% |
| Eoptolink Technology Inc 300502 | ¥429.90 | ¥176.99 | -59% |
| Motorola Solutions, Inc MSI | $469.74 | $236.33 | -50% |
| Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co 300394 | ¥240.05 | ¥43.67 | -82% |
| Accton Technology Corporation 2345 | 2,270 TWD | 1,135 TWD | -50% |
| Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ), ERICB | kr 97.78 | kr 157.82 | +61% |
| ZTE Corporation 000063 | ¥35.59 | ¥19.72 | -45% |
| Accelink Technologies Co 002281 | ¥184.85 | ¥31.67 | -83% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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