Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co Ltd (300394) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · CN · Market cap 271B CNY (≈ $40.4B) · ISIN CNE100001XQ1
What is Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 469% above our fair value of ¥43.67.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price +17.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥106.26). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥30.37 to ¥106.26). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.48 – ¥354.43 · fair‑value band ¥30.37 – ¥106.26 · the ¥248.70 price screens above the ¥43.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
Analysis
Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co Ltd (300394) currently trades at ¥248.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥43.67, implying the stock looks roughly 469.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥93.46 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥248.70 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥10.52, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co Ltd generated revenue of 5.5B CNY at a net margin of 39.1%. Revenue grew 40.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 42.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 2.0B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥30.37 (bear case) to ¥106.26 (bull case); at ¥248.70, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 277% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at −82%, 300394 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥1.02 per share, which is 2.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥93.46) versus Asset-Based (¥3.38). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides optical sub-assembly integrated solutions and optoelectronic packaging manufacturing services in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through Optical Device Overall Solutions and Optoelectronic Advanced Packaging Business segments.
Full company description
Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides optical sub-assembly integrated solutions and optoelectronic packaging manufacturing services in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through Optical Device Overall Solutions and Optoelectronic Advanced Packaging Business segments. The company offers BOX packaging technology platform/high-speed optical engine solutions; coherent optics technology platform/FAU passive sub-assembly solutions; micro-optics technology platform and product solutions; parallel optics technology platform/AOC series passive optical components solutions; passive optical components solutions for PSM/DR applications; TO packaging technology platform/high speed coaxial sub-assembly solutions; and plastic lens and fiber array solutions for SR and OBO applications. It also provides wavelength division multiplexing devices and passive module solutions; fiber optic connection solutions; WDM (AWG) alignment technology platform/MUX/De-MUX solutions; and solutions for LiDAR applications, as well as optoelectronic packaging manufacturing services for OEMs. The company's products are used in AI computing centers, data centers, optical fiber communication, and optical sensing applications. In addition, it engages in the manufacture and sale of optoelectronic devices, electric subcomponents, high-precision molds and parts, optical lenses and filters, optical wavelength division devices, and electronic components; provision of information technology consulting, software development, Internet of Things technical, trading, investment, and technology services; design, production, import, and export of automotive parts, sensor equipment, and electronic equipment; and research, development, and technical consulting for biomedical equipment. Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co., Ltd. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Suzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co Ltd reported revenue of 5.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +49.5%/yr. Reported net income was 2.0B CNY in FY2025, compounding +60.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +30.3 % · buybacks/dilution −4.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
300394 screens 469% overvalued. Compare with Cisco Systems, Inc →
Peer Group
Communication Equipment · 302 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Communication Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cisco Systems, Inc CSCO | $112.15 | $61.53 | −45% |
| Zhongji Innolight Co 300308 | ¥866.12 | ¥171.09 | −80% |
| Foxconn Industrial Internet Co 601138 | ¥61.83 | ¥28.65 | −54% |
| Eoptolink Technology Inc 300502 | ¥429.90 | ¥176.99 | −59% |
| Nokia Oyj NOK | $10.21 | $3.78 | −63% |
| Motorola Solutions, Inc MSI | $491.24 | $236.33 | −52% |
| Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock Limited 601869 | ¥400.03 | ¥201.38 | −50% |
| Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ), ERIC | $10.13 | $19.85 | +96% |
| Accton Technology Corporation 2345 | 2,270 TWD | 1,135 TWD | −50% |
| Ubiquiti Inc UI | $577.76 | $252.79 | −56% |
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