National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $7.7B · ISIN US6361801011
What is National Fuel Gas Company really worth?
National Fuel Gas Company
NFG · US
A solid business, but trading 73% above our fair value of $48.18.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +2.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($37.12 to $97.94). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $42.42 – $95.30 · fair‑value band $37.12 – $97.94 · the $83.53 price screens above the $48.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) currently trades at $83.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $48.18, implying the stock looks roughly 73.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $75.34 per share, and 3 of the 23 models we run sit above the $83.53 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $21.82, and 20 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, National Fuel Gas Company generated revenue of $2.5B at a net margin of 27.4%. Revenue grew 17.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.8%. Net debt stands at $2.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $37.12 (bear case) to $97.94 (bull case); at $83.53, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −42%, NFG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 11 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.89 per share, which is 10.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($75.34) versus Growth DCF ($1.62). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
National Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company. It operates through Integrated Upstream and Gathering, Pipeline and Storage, and Utility segments. The Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment explores for, develops, and produces natural gas and oil.
Full company description
National Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company. It operates through Integrated Upstream and Gathering, Pipeline and Storage, and Utility segments. The Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment explores for, develops, and produces natural gas and oil. It also builds, owns, and operates gathering facilities in the Appalachian region, as well as provides gathering services to Seneca. The Pipeline and Storage segment provides interstate natural gas transportation services through an integrated gas pipeline system in Pennsylvania and New York; and storage services through its underground natural gas storage fields. This segment also transports and stores natural gas for National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation, as well as for utilities, industrial companies, and power producers in New York State. The Utility segment sells natural gas to retail customers; and provides natural gas utility services to various customers in Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and Jamestown, New York, as well as in Erie and Sharon, Pennsylvania. National Fuel Gas Company was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Williamsville, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
National Fuel Gas Company reported revenue of $2.3B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was $519M in FY2025, compounding +9.3%/yr from FY2021.
NFG screens 73% overvalued. Compare with Exxon Mobil Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights ConocoPhillips, Occidental and National Fuel Gas
- Why Is National Fuel Gas (NFG) Up 0.5% Since Last Earnings Report?
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 53 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $156.44 | $88.98 | −43% |
| Chevron Corporation CVX | $201.86 | $90.66 | −55% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥11.23 | ¥15.47 | +38% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €40.28 | €39.46 | −2% |
| TotalEnergies SE TOTB | €75.55 | €69.02 | −9% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A XPBRA | €7.11 | €2.03 | −71% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.52 | ¥4.59 | −17% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | kr 395.90 | kr 338.01 | −15% |
| Suncor Energy Inc SU | C$94.21 | C$59.11 | −37% |
| Eni S.p.A E | $55.12 | $32.53 | −41% |
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