Nebius Group (NBIS) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $45.1B
Nebius Group
NBIS · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $13.55 to $13.40 (−1.1%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price +31.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 95% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.16 – $286.69 · fair‑value band $11.30 – $13.40 · the $255.04 price screens above the $13.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Nebius Group (NBIS) currently trades at $255.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.40, implying the stock looks roughly 94.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Nebius Group generated revenue of $878M at a net margin of 93.1%. It earns a return on equity of 14.1%. Net debt stands at $1.2B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 97.2 (as of Jun 5, 2026). Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $11.30 (bear case) to $13.40 (bull case); at $255.04, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -8% fair-value upside, at -95%, NBIS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($23.32) versus Dividend Discount ($2.16). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Nebius Group N.V., a technology company, engages in building full-stack infrastructure to service the global AI industry in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It offers Nebius builds full-stack infrastructure for AI, including large-scale GPU clusters, cloud platforms, and tools and services for developers.
Full company description
Nebius Group N.V., a technology company, engages in building full-stack infrastructure to service the global AI industry in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It offers Nebius builds full-stack infrastructure for AI, including large-scale GPU clusters, cloud platforms, and tools and services for developers. The company also provides TripleTen, an edtech platform for re-skilling individuals for careers in technolgy; and Avride, which develops autonomous driving technology for self-driving cars and delivery robotics. It has a strategic alliance with NVIDIA Corporation to support the expansion of the company's AI cloud infrastructure. The company was formerly known as Yandex N.V. and changed its name to Nebius Group N.V. in August 2024. Nebius Group N.V. was founded in 1989 and is based in Schiphol, the Netherlands.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nebius Group reported revenue of $530M in FY2025 versus $4.8B in FY2021, a compound −42.2%/yr. Reported net income was $102M in FY2025.
NBIS screens 95% overvalued. Compare with Alphabet Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Nebius Surges to $255, Now What if You Didn’t Own It?
- NBIS Q2 Earnings Call Puts 2027 Capacity and Pricing in Focus
- Burry doubles down on Nebius short after stock surges 34% on earnings
Peer Group
Internet Content & Information · 154 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet Inc GOOGL | $343.54 | $145.14 | -58% |
| Meta Platforms, Inc META | $578.85 | $534.91 | -8% |
| Tencent Holdings 0700 | HK$461.60 | HK$448.17 | -3% |
| Spotify Technology S.A SPOT | $489.60 | $210.99 | -57% |
| Reddit, Inc RDDT | $153.45 | $39.59 | -74% |
| Baidu, Inc BIDU | $104.84 | $66.96 | -36% |
| Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 1024 | HK$41.54 | HK$84.61 | +104% |
| NAVER Corporation 035420 | 215,500 KRW | 231,585 KRW | +7% |
| Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698 | HK$33.72 | HK$66.60 | +98% |
| Kakao Corp 035720 | 40,100 KRW | 24,536 KRW | -39% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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