Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Spotify Technology SA $561, price $511, upside +9.8%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Spotify Technology SA for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $71.05 – $775.90 · fair‑value band $341.66 – $762.19 · the $511.38 price screens below the $561.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 25, 2026.
Follow Spotify Technology in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Spotify Technology is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported.
Show more
Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported. The Premium segment offers online and offline streaming access to its catalog of music and podcasts, including video, lossless music, and audiobooks in select markets through subscription offerings primarily sold directly to end users and partners. The Ad-Supported segment provides limited on-demand online access to its catalog of music and online and offline access to its catalog of podcasts on computers, tablets, mobile devices, and other smart devices. The company also offers sales, distribution and marketing, contract research and development, and customer and other support services. Spotify Technology S.A. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) currently trades at $511.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $561.44, implying the stock looks roughly 8.9% fairly valued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $304.50 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $511.38 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $100.63, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $341.66 (bear) to $762.19 (bull), the price of $511.38 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Spotify Technology SA reported revenue of €17.2B in FY2025 versus €9.7B in FY2021, a compound +15.5%/yr. Reported net income was €2.2B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $108B · P/E ratio 34.9 · P/S ratio 4.49 · EPS (TTM) $14.67 · Net margin 12.9% · Return on equity 38.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin 15.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 48% fair-value upside, at 10%, SPOT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $341.66Fair Value $561.44Bull $762.19
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($10.77 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +24.4% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.4%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.7% (2020) → 12.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.9% a year for the price and +9.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Content & Information · 150 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)38% · Top 25%
Return on assets12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)15% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)16% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Spotify Technology SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SPOT
Frequently asked questions
Is Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $561.44 versus a price of $511.38, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SPOT?
Our model-based fair value for Spotify Technology SA is $561.44 (as of Sep 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $511.38.
What is the quality score of SPOT?
Spotify Technology SA has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $561.44 (as of Sep 25, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $341.66, optimistic scenario $762.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Spotify Technology SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $561.44, about +10% upside versus a price of $511.38 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $341.66, optimistic scenario $762.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
Spotify Technology SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €17.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 25, 2026).
What growth is priced into Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Spotify Technology SA would have to grow free cash flow by +19.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.9 % per year. As of Sep 25, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SPOT use?
Our models discount Spotify Technology SA at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.56, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Spotify Technology SA that is +19.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Spotify Technology SA grew +16.9 % a year. The price currently implies +19.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Spotify Technology SA (+19.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.03 %: that much free cash flow Spotify Technology SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Spotify Technology SA it is $561.44 per share (as of Sep 25, 2026), against a price of $511.38. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Spotify Technology SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 25, 2026, SPOT trades below its calculated fair value: price $511.38, fair value $561.44, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SPOT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($511.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($561.44). For Spotify Technology SA the two are $50.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Spotify Technology SA worth?
The market values Spotify Technology SA at about $108B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 25, 2026). Per share that is $511.38; our models calculate a fair value of $561.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SPOT?
Our models span a range for Spotify Technology SA: cautious scenario $341.66, base $561.44, optimistic $762.19 per share (as of Sep 25, 2026, price $511.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SPOT?
Spotify Technology SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.9 (as of Sep 25, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $561.44 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 12.9, P/S 6.1, EV/EBITDA 41.9.
What is the PEG ratio of SPOT?
The PEG ratio of Spotify Technology SA is 1.66 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 25, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Spotify Technology SA (as of Sep 25, 2026): return on equity 38.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SPOT from its 52-week high?
Spotify Technology SA trades at $511.38, about 30% below its 52-week high of $728.47 and 24% above the low of $412.75 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $561.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Spotify Technology SA?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Tencent Holdings, Reddit, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Spotify Technology SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 25, 2026: price $511.38, calculated fair value $561.44 (+10%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SPOT calculated?
We run Spotify Technology SA through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $561.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Spotify Technology SA currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $511.38. Our model-based fair value is $561.44, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Spotify Technology SA right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($341.66 to $762.19) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Spotify Technology SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
The market capitalisation of Spotify Technology SA is $108B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Spotify Technology SA is 4.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
Earnings per share at Spotify Technology SA are $14.67 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
The net margin of Spotify Technology SA is 12.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Spotify Technology SA is 38.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Spotify Technology SA is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
The operating margin of Spotify Technology SA is 15.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
Revenue at Spotify Technology SA is growing +8.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
Earnings per share at Spotify Technology SA are growing +222% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) hold?
Spotify Technology SA holds more cash than debt, €2.9B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Spotify Technology SA in the live analysis
One click puts Spotify Technology SA on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Sep 25, 2026