Spotify Technology S.A (SPOT) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $99.8B
Spotify Technology S.A
SPOT · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $209.56 to $210.99 (+0.7%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +3.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 58% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($433.35). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($158.24 to $433.35). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $71.05 – $775.90 · fair‑value band $158.24 – $433.35 · the $498.24 price screens above the $210.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Spotify Technology S.A (SPOT) currently trades at $498.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $210.99, implying the stock looks roughly 57.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Spotify Technology S.A generated revenue of $17.5B at a net margin of 15.5%. Revenue grew 8.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 38.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $2.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $158.24 (bear case) to $433.35 (bull case); at $498.24, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -8% fair-value upside, at -58%, SPOT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($303.09) versus Dividend Discount ($3.31). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Notify me when SPOT reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported.
Full company description
Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported. The Premium segment offers online and offline streaming access to its catalog of music and podcasts, including video, lossless music, and audiobooks in select markets through subscription offerings primarily sold directly to end users and partners. The Ad-Supported segment provides limited on-demand online access to its catalog of music and online and offline access to its catalog of podcasts on computers, tablets, mobile devices, and other smart devices. The company also offers sales, distribution and marketing, contract research and development, and customer and other support services. Spotify Technology S.A. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Spotify Technology S.A reported revenue of $17.2B in FY2025 versus $9.7B in FY2021, a compound +15.5%/yr. Reported net income was $2.2B in FY2025.
SPOT screens 58% overvalued. Compare with Alphabet Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Spotify and Pinterest Delivered the Growth. Investors Wanted More
- What Investors Should Know About Spotify Co-CEO Soderstrom Selling $10.6M Stock
- Spotify Q2 Earnings Miss on Higher Marketing and AI Costs
- Spotify Stock Drops 4.9% Despite Reaching 300 Million Subscribers
Peer Group
Internet Content & Information · 154 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet Inc GOOGL | $343.54 | $145.14 | -58% |
| Meta Platforms, Inc META | $578.85 | $534.91 | -8% |
| Tencent Holdings 0700 | HK$461.60 | HK$448.17 | -3% |
| Reddit, Inc RDDT | $153.45 | $39.59 | -74% |
| Baidu, Inc BIDU | $104.84 | $66.96 | -36% |
| Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 1024 | HK$41.54 | HK$84.61 | +104% |
| NAVER Corporation 035420 | 215,500 KRW | 231,585 KRW | +7% |
| Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698 | HK$33.72 | HK$66.60 | +98% |
| Kakao Corp 035720 | 40,100 KRW | 24,536 KRW | -39% |
| Info Edge (India) Limited NAUKRI | ₹1,357 | ₹329.27 | -76% |
Compare Spotify Technology S.A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Communication Services stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Spotify Technology S.A (SPOT) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of SPOT?
What is the quality score of SPOT?
What is the revenue of Spotify Technology S.A (SPOT)?
What is the net profit margin of SPOT?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Spotify Technology S.A and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.