Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $99.8B · ISIN LU1778762911
What is Spotify Technology SA really worth?
Spotify Technology SA
SPOT · US
A solid business, but trading 164% above our fair value of $211.87.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 31, 2026, revised from $213.13 to $211.87 (−0.6%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +17.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($435.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($158.90 to $435.16). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $71.05 – $775.90 · fair‑value band $158.90 – $435.16 · the $560.11 price screens above the $211.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) currently trades at $560.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $211.87, implying the stock looks roughly 164.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $303.09 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $560.11 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $27.13, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Spotify Technology SA generated revenue of $17.5B at a net margin of 15.5%. Revenue grew 8.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 38.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $2.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $158.90 (bear case) to $435.16 (bull case); at $560.11, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at −62%, SPOT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $10.19 per share, which is 4.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($303.09) versus Dividend Discount ($3.31). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
Notify me when SPOT reaches fair value
Put SPOT on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported.
Full company description
Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported. The Premium segment offers online and offline streaming access to its catalog of music and podcasts, including video, lossless music, and audiobooks in select markets through subscription offerings primarily sold directly to end users and partners. The Ad-Supported segment provides limited on-demand online access to its catalog of music and online and offline access to its catalog of podcasts on computers, tablets, mobile devices, and other smart devices. The company also offers sales, distribution and marketing, contract research and development, and customer and other support services. Spotify Technology S.A. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Spotify Technology SA reported revenue of €17.2B in FY2025 versus €9.7B in FY2021, a compound +15.5%/yr. Reported net income was €2.2B in FY2025.
SPOT screens 164% overvalued. Compare with Alphabet Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- How Investors May Respond To Spotify (SPOT) Boosting Buybacks Amid Shifting Streaming Economics
- Spotify Technology (SPOT) Posted 15% Streaming Growth, Is The Stock Still Undervalued?
- Spotify (SPOT) Stock Could Be A Bargain On Its 247% Run
- Barclays Analysis: Major Record Labels Narrow Streaming Growth Gap With Spotify
Peer Group
Internet Content & Information · 153 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet Inc GOOGL | $340.65 | $145.14 | −57% |
| Meta Platforms, Inc META | $571.10 | $534.91 | −6% |
| Tencent Holdings 0700 | HK$455.20 | HK$449.03 | −1% |
| Reddit, Inc RDDT | $153.29 | $39.59 | −74% |
| Baidu, Inc 89888 | HK$79.10 | HK$28.84 | −64% |
| Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 81024 | HK$34.50 | HK$63.28 | +83% |
| NAVER Corporation 035420 | 213,500 KRW | 231,585 KRW | +8% |
| Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698 | HK$35.14 | HK$66.77 | +90% |
| REA Group REA | A$177.42 | A$88.53 | −50% |
| Pinterest, Inc PINS | $23.19 | $14.38 | −38% |
Compare Spotify Technology SA with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Communication Services stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of SPOT?
What is the quality score of SPOT?
What is the revenue of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)?
What is the net profit margin of SPOT?
Does Spotify Technology SA pay a dividend?
Watch Spotify Technology SA in the live analysis
One click puts Spotify Technology SA on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.