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Tencent Holdings (0700) Fair Value & Analysis

Communication Services · HK · Market cap HK$4.1T

TH Tencent Holdings 0700 · HK
PriceHK$440.00
Fair ValueHK$448.17
Upside+1.9%
Quality70/100
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Healthy Growth
Highly profitable · 30.6% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
1.01% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/15)
Wide moat 89/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$328.95 – HK$1,349 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$467.50 to HK$448.17 (−4.1%) since Jul 12, 2026. Share price −7.2% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$328.95 to HK$1,349). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$669.70 HK$183.98 Fair Value HK$448.17 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$183.98 – HK$669.70 · fair‑value band HK$328.95 – HK$1,349 · the HK$440.00 price screens below the HK$448.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Tencent Holdings (0700) currently trades at HK$440.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$448.17, implying the stock looks roughly 1.9% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Tencent Holdings generated revenue of HK$768B at a net margin of 30.6%. Revenue grew 9.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.5%. Net debt stands at HK$258B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$328.95 (bear case) to HK$1,349 (bull case); at HK$440.00, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -36% fair-value upside, at 2%, 0700 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$334.86 HK$667.25 HK$1,368 80
Residual Income HK$175.75 HK$241.23 HK$1,231 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$232.24 HK$448.49 HK$869.54 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$356.56 HK$587.61 HK$1,343 38
Owner Earnings HK$308.30 HK$750.19 HK$1,719 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$223.10 HK$389.23 HK$735.96 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$315.51 HK$576.18 HK$1,087 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$396.32 HK$932.80 HK$1,668 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$257.22 HK$562.90 HK$748.61 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$334.54 HK$766.60 HK$1,518 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$394.86 HK$944.72 HK$1,858 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$169.85 HK$1,185 HK$1,662 54
Lynch FV HK$492.54 HK$703.63 HK$914.72 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$492.54 HK$703.63 HK$914.72 46
EPV HK$194.93 HK$232.98 HK$266.81 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$40.11 HK$87.57 HK$147.33 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$40.11 HK$71.73 HK$91.26 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$412.14 HK$549.51 HK$686.89 63
P/S Multiple HK$219.23 HK$292.30 HK$365.38 58
P/B Multiple HK$318.47 HK$424.62 HK$530.78 55
EV/EBIT HK$301.31 HK$408.65 HK$515.99 53
EV/EBITDA HK$286.82 HK$389.33 HK$491.84 54
EV/Revenue HK$154.66 HK$229.83 HK$304.99 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$64.14 HK$85.94 HK$128.27 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$334.86 HK$667.25 HK$1,368 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$232.24 HK$448.49 HK$869.54 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$175.75 HK$241.23 HK$1,231 76
ROIC Compounder HK$264.78 HK$393.19 HK$500.59 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$624.73 HK$892.47 HK$1,160 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$892.47) versus Dividend Discount (HK$71.73). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$768B
Revenue growth (YoY) +9.1%
Net margin 30.6%
Return on equity 20.5%
Free cash flow HK$190B FY2025
P/E ratio 15.8
More key figures
Operating margin 34.3%
EPS (TTM) HK$28.70
Dividend yield 1.0%
EPS growth (YoY) +22.9%
Net debt HK$258B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 70/100

Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36

Profitability 59
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 76
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 36
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 11
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 98
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Tencent Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides value-added services, marketing services, fintech, and business services in Mainland China and internationally.

Full company description

Tencent Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides value-added services, marketing services, fintech, and business services in Mainland China and internationally. The company's consumers business includes communications and social services, such as instant messaging and social networks; digital content, including online games, videos, live streaming, news, music, and literature; fintech services, which include mobile payment, wealth management, consumer loans, and securities trading; and various tools comprising network security management, browsing, navigation, application management, email, etc. Its enterprise business comprises marketing solutions, which offer digital tools, including user insight, creative management, placement strategy, and digital assets management; and cloud services, such as cloud computing, big data analytics, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, and security and other technologies for financial services, education, healthcare, retail, industry, transport, energy, and radio and television industries. The company also invests in, produces, and distributes films and television programs; offers copyrights licensing and merchandise sales and other services; provides internet advertisement services; and offers software development, and information technology and system integration services, as well as develops and operates mobile games. The company was formerly known as Tencent (BVI) Limited and changed its name to Tencent Holdings Limited in February 2004. Tencent Holdings Limited was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tencent Holdings reported revenue of HK$752B in FY2025 versus HK$560B in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$225B in FY2025, compounding +0.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$752B
Latest YoY
+13.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.3%
Avg. growth/yr (22Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+37.0%
Revenue +7.6%/yr
FY21 HK$560B
FY22 HK$555B
FY23 HK$609B
FY24 HK$660B
FY25 HK$752B
Net income +0.0%/yr
FY21 HK$225B
FY22 HK$188B
FY23 HK$115B
FY24 HK$194B
FY25 HK$225B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +21.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +22.2 pp

of which total revenue +22.2 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin −2.6 pp
Tax rate −0.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.9 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Tencent Holdings · Fair Value
HK$448.17 +2%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tencent Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0700

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Internet Content & Information · 154 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +2% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 21% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 31% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 34% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.0% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.29× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 15.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B 3.59× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 5.39× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 2.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 15.3× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.35× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 36 · sector 0
FUTURE 46 · sector 31
PAST 82 · sector 10
HEALTH 86 · sector 99
DIVIDEND 20 · sector 44

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Alphabet Inc GOOGL $343.54 $145.14 -58%
Meta Platforms, Inc META $578.85 $534.91 -8%
Spotify Technology S.A SPOT $489.60 $210.99 -57%
Reddit, Inc RDDT $153.45 $39.59 -74%
Baidu, Inc BIDU $104.84 $66.96 -36%
Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 1024 HK$41.54 HK$84.61 +104%
NAVER Corporation 035420 215,500 KRW 231,585 KRW +7%
Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698 HK$33.72 HK$66.60 +98%
Kakao Corp 035720 40,100 KRW 24,536 KRW -39%
Info Edge (India) Limited NAUKRI ₹1,357 ₹329.27 -76%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Tencent Holdings (0700) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$448.17 versus a price of HK$440.00, about +2% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0700?
Our model-based fair value for Tencent Holdings is HK$448.17 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$440.00.
What is the quality score of 0700?
Tencent Holdings has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Tencent Holdings (0700)?
Tencent Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$768B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0700?
The net profit margin of Tencent Holdings is about 30.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 30.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Tencent Holdings pay a dividend?
Tencent Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.04% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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