Maple Leaf Foods Inc (MFI) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CA · Market cap C$3.6B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from C$48.31 to C$43.87 (−9.2%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price −6.6% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 63% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$30.72). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (C$30.72 to C$57.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$14.26 – C$31.54 · fair‑value band C$30.72 – C$57.03 · the C$26.88 price screens below the C$43.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Maple Leaf Foods Inc (MFI) currently trades at C$26.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$43.87, implying the stock looks roughly 63.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Maple Leaf Foods Inc generated revenue of C$4.0B at a net margin of 13.6%. Revenue grew 6.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.1%. Net debt stands at C$1.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$30.72 (bear case) to C$57.03 (bull case); at C$26.88, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at 63%, MFI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$69.16) versus Asset-Based (C$7.11). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Maple Leaf Foods Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a protein-focused consumer packaged goods company in Canada, the United States, Japan, Korea, the Philippines, China, and internationally.
Full company description
Maple Leaf Foods Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a protein-focused consumer packaged goods company in Canada, the United States, Japan, Korea, the Philippines, China, and internationally. It offers fresh and frozen poultry, bacon, hams, wieners, meat snacks, a variety of delicatessen products, specialty sausages, a line of cooked meats, sliced meats, cooked sausage products, lunch kits, and canned meats; processed chicken products comprising fully cooked chicken breasts and wings; and a range of plant-based products, including tempeh and plant-based chicken, sausages, wieners, bacon, grounds, burgers, deli meat, cheeses, and frozen appetizers under the Maple Leaf, Maple Leaf Prime, Schneiders, Mina, Greenfield Natural Meat Co., Fantino & Mondello, Grab'N Snack, Lunch Mate, LightLife, Field Roast, Chao, Swift Premium, Hygrade, Mitchell's Gourmet, Larsen, and Shopsy's brands, as well as private label brands. The company was founded in 1836 and is headquartered in Mississauga, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Maple Leaf Foods Inc reported revenue of C$3.9B in FY2025 versus C$4.5B in FY2021, a compound −3.5%/yr. Reported net income was C$542M in FY2025, compounding +51.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.2 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.2 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch MFI: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Maple Leaf Centre for Food Security awards four scholarships
- Maple Leaf Foods to Report Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on August 12th
- Maple Leaf Foods Releases 2025 Integrated Report Showcasing Sustainability Progress and Commitment to Long-Term Value Creation
- A Look At Maple Leaf Foods (TSX:MFI) Valuation As Shares Pull Back But One-Year Returns Remain Strong
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 652 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,507 | ₹362.37 | -76% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,646 | ₹1,870 | -67% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,062 | ₹327.27 | -69% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 7,550 IDR | 12,864 IDR | +70% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,219,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -17% |
| Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM | 61,600 VND | 52,858 VND | -14% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹352.60 | ₹144.77 | -59% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,665 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +62% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,630 IDR | 4,350 IDR | -6% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 389,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +36% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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