MFI.TO (MFI) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · CA · Market cap C$3.6B (≈ $2.6B) · ISIN CA5649051078

What is MFI.TO really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$30.72). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
• A fairly wide model range (C$30.72 to C$57.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$14.26 – C$31.54 · fair‑value band C$30.72 – C$57.03 · the C$26.66 price screens below the C$43.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.

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Analysis

MFI.TO (MFI) currently trades at C$26.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$43.87, implying the stock looks roughly 39.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$69.16 per share, and 13 of the 22 models we run sit above the C$26.66 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$7.11, and 9 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, MFI.TO generated revenue of C$4.0B at a net margin of 13.6%. Revenue grew 6.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.1%. Net debt stands at C$1.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026

Our scenario range runs from C$30.72 (bear case) to C$57.03 (bull case); at C$26.66, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at 65%, MFI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$69.16) versus Asset-Based (C$7.11). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Maple Leaf Foods Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a protein-focused consumer packaged goods company in Canada, the United States, Japan, Korea, the Philippines, China, and internationally.

Full company description

Maple Leaf Foods Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a protein-focused consumer packaged goods company in Canada, the United States, Japan, Korea, the Philippines, China, and internationally. It offers fresh and frozen poultry, bacon, hams, wieners, meat snacks, a variety of delicatessen products, specialty sausages, a line of cooked meats, sliced meats, cooked sausage products, lunch kits, and canned meats; processed chicken products comprising fully cooked chicken breasts and wings; and a range of plant-based products, including tempeh and plant-based chicken, sausages, wieners, bacon, grounds, burgers, deli meat, cheeses, and frozen appetizers under the Maple Leaf, Maple Leaf Prime, Schneiders, Mina, Greenfield Natural Meat Co., Fantino & Mondello, Grab'N Snack, Lunch Mate, LightLife, Field Roast, Chao, Swift Premium, Hygrade, Mitchell's Gourmet, Larsen, and Shopsy's brands, as well as private label brands. The company was founded in 1836 and is headquartered in Mississauga, Canada.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

MFI.TO reported revenue of C$3.9B in FY2025 versus C$4.5B in FY2021, a compound −3.5%/yr. Reported net income was C$542M in FY2025, compounding +51.5%/yr from FY2021.

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Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 648 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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