Melia Hotels (MEL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · ES · Market cap €2.4B · ISIN ES0176252718
What is Melia Hotels really worth?
A solid business, trading 36% below our fair value of €15.84.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −3.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (€9.39 to €21.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.97 – €12.29 · fair‑value band €9.39 – €21.23 · the €10.07 price screens below the €15.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Melia Hotels (MEL) currently trades at €10.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €15.84, implying the stock looks roughly 36.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €16.90 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the €10.07 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €2.57, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Melia Hotels generated revenue of €2.1B at a net margin of 7.8%. Revenue grew 3.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.8%. Net debt stands at €2.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €9.39 (bear case) to €21.23 (bull case); at €10.07, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −61% fair-value upside, at 57%, MEL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.5008 per share, which is 3.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€16.90) versus Asset-Based (€2.57). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Meliá Hotels International, S.A. owns, operates, manages, leases, and franchises hotels in Spain, Latin America, the rest of Europe, and Asia. It operates through Hotel Management, Hotel Business, Other Business Linked to Hotel Management, and Real Estate segments.
Full company description
Meliá Hotels International, S.A. owns, operates, manages, leases, and franchises hotels in Spain, Latin America, the rest of Europe, and Asia. It operates through Hotel Management, Hotel Business, Other Business Linked to Hotel Management, and Real Estate segments. The company operates hotels under the Gran Meliá Hotels & Resorts, the Meliá Collection, ME by Meliá, Paradisus by Meliá, Meliá Hotels & Resorts, INNSIDE by Meliá, ZEL, Sol by Meliá, Affiliated by Meliá brands, as well as Circle by Meliá and Club Meliá brands. It also engages in the operation of vacation club; casino or tour operation activities; and real estate business. In addition, the company offers Meliá Rewards; and Meliá PRO, a platform for professionals. The company was formerly known as Sol Meliá, S.A. and changed its name to Meliá Hotels International, S.A. in June 2011. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Palma de Mallorca, Spain.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Melia Hotels reported revenue of €2.1B in FY2025 versus €827M in FY2021, a compound +25.9%/yr. Reported net income was €170M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +2.1 % · buybacks/dilution −0.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Lodging · 165 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marriott International, Inc MAR | $341.76 | $132.35 | −61% |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings HLT | $314.35 | $122.07 | −61% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group IHG | $161.82 | $85.18 | −47% |
| Hyatt Hotels Corporation H | $178.37 | $46.78 | −74% |
| H World Group HTHT | $41.25 | $47.78 | +16% |
| Accor SA AC | €46.52 | €36.87 | −21% |
| The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL | ₹723.35 | ₹253.67 | −65% |
| Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH | $74.02 | $23.55 | −68% |
| Hanjin Kal, 180640 | 139,100 KRW | 36,890 KRW | −73% |
| Choice Hotels International, Inc CHH | $105.54 | $61.72 | −42% |
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