Lotus Bakeries NV (LOTB) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · BE · Market cap €9.0B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Share price +15.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 71% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€5,216). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (€1,943 to €5,216). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €4,387 – €12,680 · fair‑value band €1,943 – €5,216 · the €12,680 price screens above the €3,735 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Lotus Bakeries NV (LOTB) currently trades at €12,680, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3,735, implying the stock looks roughly 70.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Lotus Bakeries NV generated revenue of €1.4B at a net margin of 12.7%. Revenue grew 10.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.9%. Net debt stands at €190M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €1,943 (bear case) to €5,216 (bull case); at €12,680, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -71%, LOTB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€3,852) versus Asset-Based (€708.55). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Lotus Bakeries NV, together with its subsidiaries, provides various snack products in Belgium and internationally. It offers biscuits, cookies, ginger breads, cakes, donut, waffles, pastry, fruity bakes, veggie straws, wriggles, tiddlers, biscptti, melty bittons, and pepparkakor biscuits.
Full company description
Lotus Bakeries NV, together with its subsidiaries, provides various snack products in Belgium and internationally. It offers biscuits, cookies, ginger breads, cakes, donut, waffles, pastry, fruity bakes, veggie straws, wriggles, tiddlers, biscptti, melty bittons, and pepparkakor biscuits. The company also provides energy bars, fruit and nut bars, protein bars, fruit and fibre bars, ice creams, and spreads. It sells its products under the Lotus, Biscoff, nakd, TREK, BEAR, Kiddylicious, Peter's Yard, Dinosaurus, Peijnenburg, Snelle Jelle, Annas, Suzy, and Kung Oscar brands. The company was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Lembeke, Belgium. Lotus Bakeries NV is a subsidiary of Stichting Administratiekantoor van Aandelen Lotus Bakeries.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lotus Bakeries NV reported revenue of €1.4B in FY2025 versus €750M in FY2021, a compound +15.9%/yr. Reported net income was €172M in FY2025, compounding +17.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +12.5 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.2 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
LOTB screens 71% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé India Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Biscoff Maker Lotus Gains 590% in Tough Decade For Snack Firms
- Lotus to expand factory to meet Biscoff demand
- Lotus Bakeries NV (LOTBY) Full Year 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Growth and Strategic ...
- A Fresh Look at Lotus Bakeries (ENXTBR:LOTB) Valuation as Investor Interest Quietly Grows
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 652 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,507 | ₹362.37 | -76% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,646 | ₹1,870 | -67% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,062 | ₹327.27 | -69% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 7,550 IDR | 12,864 IDR | +70% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,219,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -17% |
| Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM | 61,600 VND | 52,858 VND | -14% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹352.60 | ₹144.77 | -59% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,665 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +62% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,630 IDR | 4,350 IDR | -6% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 389,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +36% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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