Lotus Bakeries (LOTB) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · BE · Market cap €9.0B · ISIN BE0003604155
What is Lotus Bakeries really worth?
A solid business, but trading 227% above our fair value of €3,735.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +8.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€5,216). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (€1,943 to €5,216). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €4,387 – €13,100 · fair‑value band €1,943 – €5,216 · the €12,220 price screens above the €3,735 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Lotus Bakeries (LOTB) currently trades at €12,220, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3,735, implying the stock looks roughly 227.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €3,852 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the €12,220 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €708.55, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Lotus Bakeries generated revenue of €1.4B at a net margin of 12.7%. Revenue grew 10.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.9%. Net debt stands at €190M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €1,943 (bear case) to €5,216 (bull case); at €12,220, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −69%, LOTB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €82.74 per share, which is 2.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€3,852) versus Asset-Based (€708.55). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
Notify me when LOTB reaches fair value
Put LOTB on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Lotus Bakeries NV, together with its subsidiaries, provides various snack products in Belgium and internationally. It offers biscuits, cookies, ginger breads, cakes, donut, waffles, pastry, fruity bakes, veggie straws, wriggles, tiddlers, biscptti, melty bittons, and pepparkakor biscuits.
Full company description
Lotus Bakeries NV, together with its subsidiaries, provides various snack products in Belgium and internationally. It offers biscuits, cookies, ginger breads, cakes, donut, waffles, pastry, fruity bakes, veggie straws, wriggles, tiddlers, biscptti, melty bittons, and pepparkakor biscuits. The company also provides energy bars, fruit and nut bars, protein bars, fruit and fibre bars, ice creams, and spreads. It sells its products under the Lotus, Biscoff, nakd, TREK, BEAR, Kiddylicious, Peter's Yard, Dinosaurus, Peijnenburg, Snelle Jelle, Annas, Suzy, and Kung Oscar brands. The company was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Lembeke, Belgium. Lotus Bakeries NV is a subsidiary of Stichting Administratiekantoor van Aandelen Lotus Bakeries.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lotus Bakeries reported revenue of €1.4B in FY2025 versus €750M in FY2021, a compound +15.9%/yr. Reported net income was €172M in FY2025, compounding +17.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +12.5 % · buybacks/dilution −0.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
LOTB screens 227% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé S.A →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Biscoff Maker Lotus Gains 590% in Tough Decade For Snack Firms
- Lotus to expand factory to meet Biscoff demand
- Lotus Bakeries NV (LOTBY) Full Year 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Growth and Strategic ...
- A Fresh Look at Lotus Bakeries (ENXTBR:LOTB) Valuation as Investor Interest Quietly Grows
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 648 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé S.A NESN | CHF 78.62 | CHF 57.26 | −27% |
| Danone S.A BN | €64.28 | €48.41 | −25% |
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,478 | ₹251.94 | −83% |
| The Kraft Heinz Company KHC | $25.13 | $24.59 | −2% |
| Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 | ¥35.05 | ¥21.93 | −37% |
| Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 | ¥25.51 | ¥32.50 | +27% |
| Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 | ¥25.28 | ¥9.89 | −61% |
| General Mills, Inc GIS | $40.44 | $28.32 | −30% |
| Wilmar International Limited F34 | 3.64 SGD | 3.89 SGD | +7% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,511 | ₹1,765 | −68% |
Compare Lotus Bakeries with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Defensive stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is Lotus Bakeries (LOTB) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of LOTB?
What is the quality score of LOTB?
What is the revenue of Lotus Bakeries (LOTB)?
What is the net profit margin of LOTB?
Does Lotus Bakeries pay a dividend?
Watch Lotus Bakeries in the live analysis
One click puts Lotus Bakeries on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.