Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $4.0B · ISIN US38526M1062
What is Grand Canyon Education Inc really worth?
Grand Canyon Education Inc
LOPE · US
A strong business, currently priced close to our fair value of $152.01.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +1.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $70.22 – $220.55 · fair‑value band $108.91 – $190.84 · the $152.45 price screens above the $152.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE) currently trades at $152.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $152.01, implying the stock looks roughly 0.3% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 86/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $163.41 per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the $152.45 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $18.87, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Grand Canyon Education Inc generated revenue of $1.1B at a net margin of 19.5%. Revenue grew 6.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 29.8%. Net debt stands at $88.3M. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $108.91 (bear case) to $190.84 (bull case); at $152.45, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at 0%, LOPE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $5.41 per share, which is 3.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($163.41) versus Dividend Discount ($1.53). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 83 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. operates as an education services company in the United States. The company provides technology services, including learning management system, internal administration, infrastructure, and support services; and academic services, such as program and curriculum, faculty and related training and development, class scheduling, and …
Full company description
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. operates as an education services company in the United States. The company provides technology services, including learning management system, internal administration, infrastructure, and support services; and academic services, such as program and curriculum, faculty and related training and development, class scheduling, and skills and simulation lab sites. It also offers counseling services and support, which includes admission services, financial aid, counseling services, and field experience counseling; marketing and communication services, including lead acquisition, digital communications strategy, brand identity, media planning and strategy, video, business intelligence, analytics, and data science, and market research and insights; and back-office services, such as finance and accounting, human resources, audit, and procurement services. In addition, it provides education services to 20 university partners. Grand Canyon Education, Inc. was formerly known as Significant Education, Inc. and changed its name to Grand Canyon Education, Inc. in August 2005. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Grand Canyon Education Inc reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $897M in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was $216M in FY2025, compounding −4.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.2 % · buybacks/dilution +5.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch LOPE: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Grand Canyon Education (LOPE): A Steady Cash-Generating Business Ignored in a Speculative Market
- How Much Upside is Left in Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)? Wall Street Analysts Think 35.23%
- PRDO or LOPE: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?
- Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Beat and Strategic ...
Peer Group
Education & Training Services · 142 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Education & Training Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Oriental Education & Technology Group EDU | $58.22 | $48.37 | −17% |
| TAL Education Group TAL | $11.69 | $15.60 | +33% |
| Laureate Education, Inc LAUR | $38.36 | $41.45 | +8% |
| Physicswallah Limited PWL | ₹119.46 | ₹13.69 | −89% |
| Covista Inc CVSA | $128.22 | $135.45 | +6% |
| Stride, Inc LRN | $84.58 | $139.45 | +65% |
| Universal Technical Institute, Inc UTI | $25.64 | $20.98 | −18% |
| Perdoceo Education Corporation PRDO | $33.81 | $40.65 | +20% |
| Strategic Education, Inc STRA | $81.90 | $105.48 | +29% |
| Offcn Education Technology Co 002607 | ¥2.03 | ¥0.3300 | −84% |
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