Johnson & Johnson, (JNJ) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $611B
Johnson & Johnson,
JNJ · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +3.2% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 36% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 81/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($254.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($106.21 to $254.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $134.35 – $267.24 · fair‑value band $106.21 – $254.91 · the $262.08 price screens above the $169.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Johnson & Johnson, (JNJ) currently trades at $262.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $169.04, implying the stock looks roughly 35.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 81/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Johnson & Johnson, generated revenue of $96.4B at a net margin of 21.8%. Revenue grew 9.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 26.4%. Net debt stands at $28.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $106.21 (bear case) to $254.91 (bull case); at $262.08, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 80% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at -36%, JNJ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($206.75) versus Asset-Based ($22.70). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Johnson & Johnson, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of a range of products in the healthcare field worldwide. It operates in two segments, Innovative Medicine and MedTech.
Full company description
Johnson & Johnson, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of a range of products in the healthcare field worldwide. It operates in two segments, Innovative Medicine and MedTech. The Innovative Medicine segment offers products for various therapeutic areas, such as oncology, immunology, neuroscience, pulmonary hypertension, infectious diseases, and cardiovascular and metabolism distributed through retailers, wholesalers, distributors, hospitals, and healthcare professionals for prescription use. The MedTech segment provides a portfolio of products used in the surgery, orthopedic, cardiovascular, and vision fields distributed through wholesalers, hospitals and retailers, and used in the professional fields by physicians, nurses, hospitals, eye care professionals and clinics. This segment also offers products and enabling technologies that support joint reconstruction, trauma, spine, sports related injuries, and others, as well as open, laparoscopic, and robotic surgical procedures; instrumentation, energy devices, stapling systems, wound closure, biosurgery products, and digital and robotic technologies; breast aesthetics and reconstruction; contact lenses under the ACUVUE brand; intraocular lenses for cataract surgery, and other products used in cataract and refractive procedures under the TECNIS brand. The company was founded in 1886 and is based in New Brunswick, New Jersey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Johnson & Johnson, reported revenue of $94.2B in FY2025 versus $78.7B in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was $26.8B in FY2025, compounding +6.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.4 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
JNJ screens 36% overvalued. Compare with Eli Lilly and Company →
Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - General · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly and Company LLY | $1,220 | $389.47 | -68% |
| AbbVie Inc ABBV | $248.76 | $67.72 | -73% |
| Roche Holding 1RO | €392.80 | €240.14 | -39% |
| Merck & Co MRK | €115.42 | €118.21 | +2% |
| Novartis AG NVSN | 2,742 MXN | 1,964 MXN | -28% |
| AstraZeneca PLC AZN | $158.50 | $127.32 | -20% |
| Novo Nordisk A/S NOVOB | kr 299.50 | kr 409.46 | +37% |
| Sanofi SNYN | 770.00 MXN | 1,041 MXN | +35% |
| GSK plc GSKN | 917.00 MXN | 879.08 MXN | -4% |
| Bayer Aktiengesellschaft BAYER | 17,685 HUF | 14,810 HUF | -16% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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