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Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · ID · Market cap 26.0T IDR (≈ $2.6B) · ISIN ID1000108509

What is Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk really worth?

IT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk ITMG · JK
Price26,100 IDR
Fair Value35,421 IDR
Upside+35.7%
Quality64/100

A solid business, trading 26% below our fair value of 35,421 IDR.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (11/15)

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +9.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.5% net margin
!Moderate moat 48/100
!Weak on future: 16 out of 100
Evidence: High Range 26,566 IDR – 44,277 IDR

Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 9 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 27, 2026, revised from 43,769 IDR to 35,421 IDR (−19.1%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +5.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • The price sits below our cautious bear case: the market assumes less than even our pessimistic scenario.
  • The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

28,903 IDR 4,918 IDR Fair Value 35,421 IDR Mar 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 4,918 IDR – 28,903 IDR · fair‑value band 26,566 IDR – 44,277 IDR · the 26,100 IDR price screens below the 35,421 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

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Analysis

Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) currently trades at 26,100 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 35,421 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 26.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 41,489 IDR per share, and 19 of the 22 models we run sit above the 26,100 IDR price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 16,088 IDR, and 3 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk generated revenue of 1.9B IDR at a net margin of 9.5%. Revenue grew 3.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 710M IDR. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 26,566 IDR (bear case) to 44,277 IDR (bull case); at 26,100 IDR, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 36%, ITMG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 1,953 IDR per share, which is 5.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence 37,679 IDR 48,828 IDR 68,867 IDR 81
Growth DCF 38,808 IDR 49,674 IDR 68,020 IDR 79
Owner Earnings 34,998 IDR 45,159 IDR 63,222 IDR 77
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence 37,679 IDR 48,828 IDR 68,867 IDR 81
Owner Earnings 34,998 IDR 45,159 IDR 63,222 IDR 77
5Y Revenue Exit 31,611 IDR 40,643 IDR 53,061 IDR 74
5Y EBITDA Exit 30,482 IDR 38,808 IDR 49,110 IDR 77
5Y P/E Exit 33,728 IDR 44,453 IDR 56,307 IDR 72
10Y Revenue Exit 33,022 IDR 41,489 IDR 51,227 IDR 68
10Y EBITDA Exit 32,881 IDR 40,219 IDR 48,545 IDR 70
10Y P/E Exit 34,857 IDR 44,030 IDR 53,485 IDR 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 16,229 IDR 29,918 IDR 37,115 IDR 66
EPV 31,611 IDR 35,421 IDR 38,808 IDR 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple 25,119 IDR 33,446 IDR 41,772 IDR 63
P/S Multiple 21,168 IDR 28,224 IDR 35,280 IDR 58
P/B Multiple 30,482 IDR 40,643 IDR 50,662 IDR 55
EV/EBIT 34,857 IDR 43,183 IDR 51,509 IDR 66
EV/EBITDA 29,071 IDR 35,421 IDR 41,913 IDR 67
EV/Revenue 29,635 IDR 38,103 IDR 46,570 IDR 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 11,995 IDR 16,088 IDR 23,991 IDR 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 38,808 IDR 49,674 IDR 68,020 IDR 79
Rev-Margin DCF 31,611 IDR 41,207 IDR 52,497 IDR 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 21,450 IDR 23,991 IDR 40,502 IDR 74
ROIC Compounder 32,034 IDR 36,974 IDR 42,054 IDR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 18,205 IDR 25,966 IDR 33,728 IDR 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (41,489 IDR) versus Asset-Based (16,088 IDR). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (81).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 9.1
P/S ratio 0.92 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) 2,882 IDR price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.1
Dividend yield 0.0% payout 0.0%
Net margin 10.2% FY2025
Return on equity 9.4% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 34.3% avg 5y
Operating margin 14.8% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 1.9B IDR TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +3.1% 3y avg −20.1%
EPS growth (YoY) −14.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 204M IDR FY2025
Net cash 710M IDR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70

Profitability 47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 3
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 60
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 63
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 63
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in coal mining and energy activities. It produces thermal coal for used in coal-fired power plants; and is involved in coal trading, fuel trading, energy marketing, and electricity generation. The company also offers mining contractor services; and solar rooftop installations.

Full company description

PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in coal mining and energy activities. It produces thermal coal for used in coal-fired power plants; and is involved in coal trading, fuel trading, energy marketing, and electricity generation. The company also offers mining contractor services; and solar rooftop installations. It provides its products in China, Japan, India, Philippines, Taiwan, Bangladesh, Korea, Hong Kong, Thailand, Europe, Vietnam, and Malaysia. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in South Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk is a subsidiary of Banpu Minerals (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound −2.7%/yr. Reported net income was $189M in FY2025, compounding −20.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.9B IDR
Latest YoY
−19.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−20.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+7.2% (7.2 + 0.0)
Revenue −2.7%/yr
FY21 $2.1B
FY22 $3.6B
FY23 $2.4B
FY24 $2.3B
FY25 $1.9B
Net income −20.6%/yr
FY21 $476M
FY22 $1.2B
FY23 $500M
FY24 $374M
FY25 $189M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +11.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share +3.2 %

of which total revenue +3.3 % · buybacks/dilution −0.1 %

EBIT margin +5.7 %
Tax rate +1.4 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.0 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk · Fair Value
35,421 IDR +26%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ITMG

Peer Group

Thermal Coal · 99 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +36% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 15% · Above median
Revenue growth 3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.37× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.37× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 12.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 6.2× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.25× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE81 · sector 8
FUTURE16 · sector 0
PAST38 · sector 21
HEALTH99 · sector 93
DIVIDEND0 · sector 54

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Coal Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 ¥48.05 ¥34.97 −27%
PT Bayan Resources Tbk., BYAN 15,325 IDR 3,542 IDR −77%
Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT ₹2,965 ₹891.11 −70%
Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 ¥25.08 ¥23.90 −5%
Yankuang Energy Group 600188 ¥21.60 ¥13.24 −39%
Coal India Limited COALINDIA ₹417.85 ₹464.01 +11%
533278 533278 ₹406.50 ₹660.78 +63%
China Coal Energy Company 601898 ¥13.93 ¥13.91 +0%
PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk, DSSA 1,145 IDR 352.75 IDR −69%
Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 ¥26.48 ¥20.72 −22%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 35,421 IDR versus a price of 26,100 IDR, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ITMG?
Our model-based fair value for Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk is 35,421 IDR (as of Aug 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 26,100 IDR.
What is the quality score of ITMG?
Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)?
Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.9B IDR (latest available figure, as of Aug 27, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ITMG?
The net profit margin of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk is about 9.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk pay a dividend?
Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.00% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 27, 2026).
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