IREN Ltd (IREN) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $13.9B · ISIN AU0000185993

What is IREN Ltd really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

58‑month range $1.06 – $76.41 · fair‑value band $2.01 – $3.36 · the $41.65 price screens above the $2.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

IREN Ltd (IREN) currently trades at $41.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.69, implying the stock looks roughly 1,450.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $8.51 per share, and 0 of the 8 models we run sit above the $41.65 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $3.16, and 8 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, IREN Ltd generated revenue of $757M at a net margin of 20.9%. It earns a return on equity of 7.7%. Net debt stands at $400M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 54.1. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $2.01 (bear case) to $3.36 (bull case); at $41.65, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 338% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −94%, IREN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.7700 per share, which is 28.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: Earnings-Based ($8.51) versus Dividend Discount ($0.1400). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

IREN Limited operates in the vertically integrated data center business in Australia and Canada. The company owns and operates computing hardware, as well as electrical infrastructure and data centers.

Full company description

IREN Limited operates in the vertically integrated data center business in Australia and Canada. The company owns and operates computing hardware, as well as electrical infrastructure and data centers. It also mines Bitcoin, a scarce digital asset that is created and transmitted through the operation of a peer-to-peer network of computers running the Bitcoin software. The company was formerly known as Iris Energy Limited and changed its name to IREN Limited in November 2024. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

IREN Ltd reported revenue of $501M in FY2025 versus $5.9M in FY2021, a compound +203.2%/yr. Reported net income was $86.9M in FY2025.

IREN screens 1,450% overvalued. Compare with Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, →

Peer Group

Capital Markets · 453 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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