Hesai Group Sponsored ADR (HSAI) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $2.7B · ISIN US4280501085

What is Hesai Group Sponsored ADR really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.20). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.

Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

43‑month range $3.55 – $29.80 · fair‑value band $6.77 – $8.20 · the $18.46 price screens above the $7.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Hesai Group Sponsored ADR (HSAI) currently trades at $18.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.48, implying the stock looks roughly 146.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $46.15 per share, and 15 of the 17 models we run sit above the $18.46 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $18.18, and 2 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Hesai Group Sponsored ADR generated revenue of $3.2B at a net margin of 14.8%. Revenue grew 29.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $705M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $6.77 (bear case) to $8.20 (bull case); at $18.46, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −59%, HSAI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.3193 per share, which is 4.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($155.61) versus Economic Profit ($18.18). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of three-dimensional light detection and ranging solutions (LiDAR) in Mainland China, Europe, North America, and internationally.

Full company description

Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of three-dimensional light detection and ranging solutions (LiDAR) in Mainland China, Europe, North America, and internationally. The company provides gas sensor products, validation services, solution service, and other services, as well as designs and develops engineering products. Its LiDAR products are used in passenger and commercial vehicles with advanced driver assistance systems; autonomous vehicle fleets providing passenger and freight mobility services; and other applications, such as last-mile delivery robots, street sweeping robots, and logistics robots in restricted areas. Hesai Group was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hesai Group Sponsored ADR reported revenue of 3.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 721M CNY in FY2021, a compound +43.2%/yr. Reported net income was 436M CNY in FY2025.

HSAI screens 147% overvalued. Compare with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc →

Peer Group

Auto Parts · 640 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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