O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $71.3B · ISIN US67103H1077
What is O’Reilly Automotive Inc really worth?
O’Reilly Automotive Inc
ORLY · US
A solid business, but trading 84% above our fair value of $47.50.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 21 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price −4.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($61.88). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($30.59 to $61.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $35.03 – $107.82 · fair‑value band $30.59 – $61.88 · the $87.38 price screens above the $47.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) currently trades at $87.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $47.50, implying the stock looks roughly 84.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $57.52 per share, and 1 of the 21 models we run sit above the $87.38 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $26.41, and 20 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, O’Reilly Automotive Inc generated revenue of $18.2B at a net margin of 14.3%. Revenue grew 10.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 58.6%. Net debt stands at $8.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $30.59 (bear case) to $61.88 (bull case); at $87.38, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −46%, ORLY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.09 per share, which is 4.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 21 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($57.52) versus Growth DCF ($26.41). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada.
Full company description
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. The company offers new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories. It also provides auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools, and professional service provider service equipment. In addition, the company offers enhanced services and programs consisting of used oil, oil filter, and battery recycling; battery, wiper, and bulb replacement; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; referrals to trusted local repair shops; drum and rotor resurfacing; custom hydraulic hoses; and professional paint shop mixing and related materials. It offers its products to do-it-yourself and professional service providers for domestic and imported automobiles, vans, and trucks. It offers its products under the BesTest, BrakeBest, Cartek, Import Direct, MasterPro, MicroGard, Murray, Omnispark, O'Reilly Auto Parts, Precision, PowerTorque, SuperStart, Syntec, and Ultima brand names. O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
O’Reilly Automotive Inc reported revenue of $17.8B in FY2025 versus $13.3B in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5B in FY2025, compounding +4.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.7 % · buybacks/dilution −4.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ORLY screens 84% overvalued. Compare with AutoZone, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Q2 Earnings Highlights: O'Reilly (NASDAQ:ORLY) Vs The Rest Of The Auto Parts Retailer Stocks
- Why Is O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Up 0.5% Since Last Earnings Report?
- O’Reilly’s New Unsecured Debt and Buybacks Might Change The Case For Investing In O’Reilly (ORLY)
Peer Group
Auto Parts · 640 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| AutoZone, Inc AZO | $2,932 | $2,287 | −22% |
| Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 | 450,500 KRW | 643,909 KRW | +43% |
| Fuyao Glass Industry Group 600660 | ¥57.67 | ¥84.47 | +46% |
| Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON | ₹165.30 | ₹80.63 | −51% |
| Magna International Inc MGA | $65.57 | $68.17 | +4% |
| Genuine Parts Company GPC | $137.51 | $58.07 | −58% |
| Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD | ₹48,700 | ₹11,534 | −76% |
| Ningbo Tuopu Group 601689 | ¥45.82 | ¥28.28 | −38% |
| Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG | ₹2,063 | ₹393.20 | −81% |
| Autoliv, Inc ALIVSDB | kr 1,154 | kr 198.76 | −83% |
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