Bharat Forge Limited (BHARATFORG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · IN · Market cap ₹1.0T (≈ $10.7B) · ISIN INE465A01025
What is Bharat Forge Limited really worth?
A solid business, but trading 398% above our fair value of ₹393.20.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 24, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 12 days ago
Share price −11.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹621.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (₹198.18 to ₹621.03). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹583.73 – ₹2,265 · fair‑value band ₹198.18 – ₹621.03 · the ₹1,956 price screens above the ₹393.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 24, 2026.
Analysis
Bharat Forge Limited (BHARATFORG) currently trades at ₹1,956, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹393.20, implying the stock looks roughly 397.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹421.52 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹1,956 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹134.25, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Bharat Forge Limited generated revenue of ₹168B at a net margin of 6.4%. Revenue grew 17.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.6%. Net debt stands at ₹63.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ₹198.18 (bear case) to ₹621.03 (bull case); at ₹1,956, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 78% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −80%, BHARATFORG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 5 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ₹6.25 per share, which is 1.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (₹421.52) versus Asset-Based (₹134.25). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Bharat Forge Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of forged and machined components in India and internationally. It operates through three segments: Forgings, Defence, and Others.
Full company description
Bharat Forge Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of forged and machined components in India and internationally. It operates through three segments: Forgings, Defence, and Others. The company offers automotive components comprising crankshafts, connecting rods, emission/after treatment, and fuel injection systems; chassis, such as front axle beams, steering knuckles, control arms, knuckle, forks, and reinforcement brackets; transmission and driveline components; and power generation components for thermal, hydro, wind, and nuclear energy. It provides oil and gas forging products, such as subsea, surface, and drilling components; rail products comprising engine and bogie components, turbochargers, and power electronics; and marine products that include propellers, marine motor, stern tube, crankshaft, conrod, piston rod, and rudders which include stock, trunk, and pintle. In addition, the company offers various components, such as turbochargers and superchargers, rotor assembly, and air cycle machine for land, marine, and aviation application; construction and mining products, including machined crankshafts, injector bodies, front spindles, and track links; and e-mobility, castings, and defense products. Further, it provides aero-frame, landing gear, and critical engine components. The company was incorporated in 1961 and is headquartered in Pune, India.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Bharat Forge Limited reported revenue of ₹168B in FY2026 versus ₹105B in FY2022, a compound +12.6%/yr. Reported net income was ₹10.8B in FY2026, compounding 0.0%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +9.6 % · buybacks/dilution −0.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
BHARATFORG screens 398% overvalued. Compare with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc →
Peer Group
Auto Parts · 640 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| O'Reilly Automotive, Inc ORLY | $88.50 | $47.50 | −46% |
| AutoZone, Inc AZO | $2,932 | $2,287 | −22% |
| Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 | 450,500 KRW | 643,909 KRW | +43% |
| Fuyao Glass Industry Group 600660 | ¥57.67 | ¥84.47 | +46% |
| Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON | ₹165.30 | ₹80.63 | −51% |
| Magna International Inc MGA | $65.57 | $68.17 | +4% |
| Genuine Parts Company GPC | $137.51 | $58.07 | −58% |
| Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD | ₹48,700 | ₹11,534 | −76% |
| Ningbo Tuopu Group 601689 | ¥45.82 | ¥28.28 | −38% |
| Autoliv, Inc ALIVSDB | kr 1,154 | kr 198.76 | −83% |
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