AutoZone Inc (AZO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $50.2B · ISIN US0533321024
What is AutoZone Inc really worth?
AutoZone Inc
AZO · US
A solid business, but trading 30% above our fair value of $2,287.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −2.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($1,469 to $3,144) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1,375 – $4,355 · fair‑value band $1,469 – $3,144 · the $2,968 price screens above the $2,287 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
AutoZone Inc (AZO) currently trades at $2,968, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2,287, implying the stock looks roughly 29.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $2,995 per share, and 4 of the 23 models we run sit above the $2,968 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $570.49, and 19 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, AutoZone Inc generated revenue of $20.0B at a net margin of 12.4%. Revenue grew 8.4% year over year. Net debt stands at $12.0B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 20.4. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1,469 (bear case) to $3,144 (bull case); at $2,968, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −23%, AZO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $145.47 per share, which is 6.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($2,995) versus Dividend Discount ($570.49). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
AutoZone, Inc. operates as a retailer and distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories in the United States, Mexico, and Brazil. The company offers a product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans, and light duty trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories, and non-automotive products.
Full company description
AutoZone, Inc. operates as a retailer and distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories in the United States, Mexico, and Brazil. The company offers a product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans, and light duty trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories, and non-automotive products. It also provides A/C compressors, batteries and accessories, bearings, belts and hoses, calipers, chassis, clutches, CV axles, engines, fuel pumps, fuses, ignition and lighting products, mufflers, radiators, starters and alternators, thermostats, and water pumps, as well as tire repairs. In addition, the company provides maintenance products, such as antifreeze and windshield washer fluids; brake drums, rotors, shoes, and pads; brake and power steering fluids, and oil and fuel additives; oil and transmission fluids; oil, cabin, air, fuel, and transmission filters; oxygen sensors; paints and accessories; refrigerants and accessories; shock absorbers and struts; spark plugs and wires; and windshield wipers. Further, it offers air fresheners, cell phone accessories, drinks and snacks, floor mats and seat covers, interior and exterior accessories, mirrors, performance products, protectants and cleaners, sealants and adhesives, steering wheel covers, tools, vehicle entertainment systems, and wash and wax products, as well as towing services. Additionally, the company provides a sales program that offers commercial credit and delivery of parts and other products; sells automotive diagnostic, repair, collision, and shop management information software under the ALLDATA brand through alldata.com; Duralast branded products through duralastparts.com; and automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories, and non-automotive products through autozone.com. AutoZone, Inc. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AutoZone Inc reported revenue of $18.9B in FY2025 versus $14.6B in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5B in FY2025, compounding +3.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.8 % · buybacks/dilution +6.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
AZO screens 30% overvalued. Compare with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Are Options Traders Betting on a Big Move in AutoZone Stock?
- AutoZone Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?
- Should You Avoid AutoZone Stock, Even Near a 52-Week Low?
- AutoZone (AZO) Gains As Market Dips: What You Should Know
Peer Group
Auto Parts · 640 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| O'Reilly Automotive, Inc ORLY | $88.50 | $47.50 | −46% |
| Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 | 450,500 KRW | 643,909 KRW | +43% |
| Fuyao Glass Industry Group 600660 | ¥57.67 | ¥84.47 | +46% |
| Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON | ₹165.30 | ₹80.63 | −51% |
| Magna International Inc MGA | $65.57 | $68.17 | +4% |
| Genuine Parts Company GPC | $137.51 | $58.07 | −58% |
| Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD | ₹48,700 | ₹11,534 | −76% |
| Ningbo Tuopu Group 601689 | ¥45.82 | ¥28.28 | −38% |
| Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG | ₹2,063 | ₹393.20 | −81% |
| Autoliv, Inc ALIVSDB | kr 1,154 | kr 198.76 | −83% |
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