Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $13.6B · ISIN US4404521001
What is Hormel Foods Corporation really worth?
Hormel Foods Corporation
HRL · US
A solid business, but trading 44% above our fair value of $15.02.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −14.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($11.53 to $21.43) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.74 – $47.53 · fair‑value band $11.53 – $21.43 · the $21.68 price screens above the $15.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) currently trades at $21.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.02, implying the stock looks roughly 44.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $15.93 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $21.68 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $6.80, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Hormel Foods Corporation generated revenue of $12.2B at a net margin of 3.8%. Revenue declined 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.8%. Net debt stands at $2.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $11.53 (bear case) to $21.43 (bull case); at $21.68, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −31%, HRL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($15.93) versus Earnings-Based ($6.80). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Hormel Foods Corporation develops, processes, and distributes various meat, nuts, and other food products to foodservice, convenience store, and commercial customers in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Retail, Foodservice, and International segments.
Full company description
Hormel Foods Corporation develops, processes, and distributes various meat, nuts, and other food products to foodservice, convenience store, and commercial customers in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Retail, Foodservice, and International segments. The company provides various perishable products, including resh meats, frozen items, refrigerated meal solutions, bacon, sausages, hams, guacamole, and other items that require refrigeration; and shelf-stable products, such as canned luncheon meats, nut butters, snack nuts, chili, shelf-stable microwaveable meals, hash, stews, tortillas, salsas, tortilla chips, and other items that do not require refrigeration. It sells its products under the HORMEL, ALWAYS TENDER, APPLEGATE, AUSTIN BLUES, BACON 1, BLACK LABEL, BREAD READY, BURKE, CAFÉ H, CERATTI, CHI-CHI'S, COLUMBUS, COMPLEATS, CORN NUTS, CURE 81, DAN'S PRIZE, DI LUSSO, DINTY MOORE, DON MIGUEL, DOÑA MARIA, EMBASA, FAST "N EASY, FIRE BRAISED, FONTANINI, HERDEZ, HORMEL GATHERINGS, HOUSE OF TSANG, JENNIE-O, JUSTIN'S, LA VICTORIA, LAYOUT, LLOYD'S, MARY KITCHEN, MR. PEANUT, NATURAL CHOICE, NUT-RITION, OLD SMOKEHOUSE, OVEN READY, PILLOW PACK, PLANTERS, ROSA GRANDE, SADLER'S SMOKEHOUSE, SKIPPY, SPAM, SQUARE TABLE, SPECIAL RECIPE, VALLEY FRESH, and WHOLLY brands through sales personnel, independent brokers, and distributors. The company was formerly known as Geo. A. Hormel & Company and changed its name to Hormel Foods Corporation in January 1995. Hormel Foods Corporation was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Austin, Minnesota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hormel Foods Corporation reported revenue of $12.1B in FY2025 versus $11.4B in FY2021, a compound +1.5%/yr. Reported net income was $478M in FY2025, compounding −14.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.8 % · buybacks/dilution −0.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
HRL screens 44% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé S.A →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Hormel Foods Corporation to Participate in the 2026 Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference
- Hormel’s (HRL) New CEO Inherits Rising Profits And Falling Sales
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 648 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé S.A NESN | CHF 78.62 | CHF 57.26 | −27% |
| Danone S.A BN | €64.28 | €48.41 | −25% |
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,478 | ₹251.94 | −83% |
| The Kraft Heinz Company KHC | $25.13 | $24.59 | −2% |
| Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 | ¥35.05 | ¥21.93 | −37% |
| Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 | ¥25.51 | ¥32.50 | +27% |
| Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 | ¥25.28 | ¥9.89 | −61% |
| General Mills, Inc GIS | $40.44 | $28.32 | −30% |
| Wilmar International Limited F34 | 3.64 SGD | 3.89 SGD | +7% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,511 | ₹1,765 | −68% |
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