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Gruma, S.A. (GRUMAB) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · MX · Market cap 96.6B MXN

GS Gruma, S.A. GRUMAB · MX
Price283.55 MXN
Fair Value31.96 MXN
Upside-88.7%
Quality67/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 7.7% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
0.11% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/15)
Moderate moat 62/100
Evidence: High Range 22.09 MXN – 72.61 MXN Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated today

Share price −1.7% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 89% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (72.61 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide (22.09 MXN to 72.61 MXN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

384.24 MXN 178.02 MXN Fair Value 31.96 MXN Apr 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 178.02 MXN – 384.24 MXN · fair‑value band 22.09 MXN – 72.61 MXN · the 283.55 MXN price screens above the 31.96 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Gruma, S.A. (GRUMAB) currently trades at 283.55 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 31.96 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 88.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Gruma, S.A. generated revenue of 6.5B MXN at a net margin of 7.7%. Revenue grew 4.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.6%. Net debt stands at 1.0B MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 22.09 MXN (bear case) to 72.61 MXN (bull case); at 283.55 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -89%, GRUMAB screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (4.39 MXN to 72.16 MXN). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 23.42 MXN 49.12 MXN 91.23 MXN 80
Residual Income 10.61 MXN 14.75 MXN 93.34 MXN 76
Rev-Margin DCF 23.27 MXN 44.27 MXN 88.19 MXN 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 25.07 MXN 40.98 MXN 91.65 MXN 38
Owner Earnings 22.17 MXN 53.85 MXN 120.36 MXN 31
5Y Revenue Exit 20.80 MXN 38.37 MXN 75.20 MXN 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 28.89 MXN 54.74 MXN 105.49 MXN 41
5Y P/E Exit 23.03 MXN 54.23 MXN 96.67 MXN 38
10Y Revenue Exit 21.58 MXN 51.55 MXN 70.92 MXN 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 28.38 MXN 68.98 MXN 140.57 MXN 37
10Y P/E Exit 24.10 MXN 56.35 MXN 109.17 MXN 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 10.35 MXN 72.16 MXN 101.27 MXN 54
Lynch FV 37.28 MXN 53.26 MXN 69.24 MXN 50
PEG = 1.0 37.28 MXN 53.26 MXN 69.24 MXN 46
EPV 15.27 MXN 18.26 MXN 20.88 MXN 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 2.67 MXN 5.55 MXN 8.80 MXN 70
DDM Multi-Stage 2.67 MXN 4.68 MXN 5.82 MXN 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 23.97 MXN 31.96 MXN 39.95 MXN 63
P/S Multiple 19.40 MXN 25.87 MXN 32.34 MXN 58
P/B Multiple 19.40 MXN 25.87 MXN 32.34 MXN 55
EV/EBIT 29.65 MXN 40.42 MXN 51.19 MXN 53
EV/EBITDA 29.06 MXN 39.64 MXN 50.22 MXN 54
EV/Revenue 16.95 MXN 25.35 MXN 33.76 MXN 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 3.27 MXN 4.39 MXN 6.55 MXN 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 23.42 MXN 49.12 MXN 91.23 MXN 80
Rev-Margin DCF 23.27 MXN 44.27 MXN 88.19 MXN 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 10.61 MXN 14.75 MXN 93.34 MXN 76
ROIC Compounder 22.17 MXN 37.24 MXN 46.67 MXN 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 48.77 MXN 69.66 MXN 90.56 MXN 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (69.66 MXN) versus Asset-Based (4.39 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 6.5B MXN
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.9%
Net margin 7.7%
Return on equity 22.6%
Free cash flow 562M MXN FY2025
P/E ratio 11.4
More key figures
Operating margin 11.6%
EPS (TTM) 24.91 MXN
Dividend yield 0.1%
EPS growth (YoY) -17.1%
Net debt 1.0B MXN FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 67/100

Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 75
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 62
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 95
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 17
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a food company in Mexico, the United States, Europe, Asia, Oceania, and Central America. The company operates through Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (United States); Corn Flour Division (Mexico); Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (Europe); and Other segments.

Full company description

Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a food company in Mexico, the United States, Europe, Asia, Oceania, and Central America. The company operates through Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (United States); Corn Flour Division (Mexico); Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (Europe); and Other segments. It engages in the manufacturing and distribution of corn flours. The company also offers grits snacks and cereals, polenta, and prepared flour; corn and wheat tortillas; tortilla chips, taco shells, and toasted tortillas; wraps, such as pita bread, naan, pizza doughs, and other flatbreads; and sauces and dips, including palmito, snacks, marinades, and pasta. In addition, it provides rice and oats; hearts of palm, and packaged tortillas and snacks; and balanced feed for livestock. Further, the company is involved in research and development of nixtamalized corn flour and tortilla manufacturing equipment; production of machinery for nixtamalized corn flour and tortilla; and construction of nixtamalized corn flour manufacturing facilities. It sells its products under the Maseca, Mission, Guerrero, Tosty, TortiRicas, Rumba, La Cima, Masa Rica, Del Fogón, Arroz Luisiana, Delicados, and Rodotec, as well as Tortimasa, Juana, Mimasa, Bravos, Papiola, Tronaditas, Missiondeli, and Mexifoods brands. The company distributes its products through independent distributors and wholesalers, supermarket chains, retailers, restaurants, cafeterias, hotels, and fast-food chains. Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V. was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in San Pedro Garza García, Mexico.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Gruma, S.A. reported revenue of 6.4B MXN in FY2025 versus 4.6B MXN in FY2021, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was 519M MXN in FY2025, compounding +14.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
6.4B MXN
Latest YoY
−1.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.8%
Avg. growth/yr (27Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.8%
Revenue +8.5%/yr
FY21 4.6B MXN
FY22 5.6B MXN
FY23 6.6B MXN
FY24 6.5B MXN
FY25 6.4B MXN
Net income +14.5%/yr
FY21 302M MXN
FY22 319M MXN
FY23 429M MXN
FY24 532M MXN
FY25 519M MXN
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2012-2023) +8.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share +6.0 pp

of which total revenue +3.3 pp · buybacks/dilution +2.7 pp

EBIT margin +3.6 pp
Tax rate −2.2 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.4 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

GRUMAB screens 89% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé India Limited →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gruma, S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GRUMAB

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 652 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −89% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 23% · Top 25%
Return on assets 11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.59× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 2.54× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.88× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 10.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 5.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.08× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 23
FUTURE 25 · sector 19
PAST 91 · sector 28
HEALTH 70 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 2 · sector 47

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,507 ₹362.37 -76%
Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA ₹5,646 ₹1,870 -67%
Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM ₹1,062 ₹327.27 -69%
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP 7,550 IDR 12,864 IDR +70%
Samyang Foods Co 003230 1,219,000 KRW 1,010,543 KRW -17%
Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM 61,600 VND 52,858 VND -14%
Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI ₹352.60 ₹144.77 -59%
PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR 1,665 IDR 2,699 IDR +62%
PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY 4,630 IDR 4,350 IDR -6%
Nongshim Co 004370 389,500 KRW 530,619 KRW +36%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Gruma, S.A. (GRUMAB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 31.96 MXN versus a price of 283.55 MXN, about −89% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GRUMAB?
Our model-based fair value for Gruma, S.A. is 31.96 MXN (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 283.55 MXN.
What is the quality score of GRUMAB?
Gruma, S.A. has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Gruma, S.A. (GRUMAB)?
Gruma, S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.5B MXN (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GRUMAB?
The net profit margin of Gruma, S.A. is about 7.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Gruma, S.A. pay a dividend?
Gruma, S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.11% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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