Gruma, S.A. (GRUMAB) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · MX · Market cap 96.6B MXN
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Share price −1.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 89% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (72.61 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (22.09 MXN to 72.61 MXN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 178.02 MXN – 384.24 MXN · fair‑value band 22.09 MXN – 72.61 MXN · the 283.55 MXN price screens above the 31.96 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Gruma, S.A. (GRUMAB) currently trades at 283.55 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 31.96 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 88.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Gruma, S.A. generated revenue of 6.5B MXN at a net margin of 7.7%. Revenue grew 4.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.6%. Net debt stands at 1.0B MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 22.09 MXN (bear case) to 72.61 MXN (bull case); at 283.55 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -89%, GRUMAB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (69.66 MXN) versus Asset-Based (4.39 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a food company in Mexico, the United States, Europe, Asia, Oceania, and Central America. The company operates through Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (United States); Corn Flour Division (Mexico); Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (Europe); and Other segments.
Full company description
Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a food company in Mexico, the United States, Europe, Asia, Oceania, and Central America. The company operates through Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (United States); Corn Flour Division (Mexico); Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (Europe); and Other segments. It engages in the manufacturing and distribution of corn flours. The company also offers grits snacks and cereals, polenta, and prepared flour; corn and wheat tortillas; tortilla chips, taco shells, and toasted tortillas; wraps, such as pita bread, naan, pizza doughs, and other flatbreads; and sauces and dips, including palmito, snacks, marinades, and pasta. In addition, it provides rice and oats; hearts of palm, and packaged tortillas and snacks; and balanced feed for livestock. Further, the company is involved in research and development of nixtamalized corn flour and tortilla manufacturing equipment; production of machinery for nixtamalized corn flour and tortilla; and construction of nixtamalized corn flour manufacturing facilities. It sells its products under the Maseca, Mission, Guerrero, Tosty, TortiRicas, Rumba, La Cima, Masa Rica, Del Fogón, Arroz Luisiana, Delicados, and Rodotec, as well as Tortimasa, Juana, Mimasa, Bravos, Papiola, Tronaditas, Missiondeli, and Mexifoods brands. The company distributes its products through independent distributors and wholesalers, supermarket chains, retailers, restaurants, cafeterias, hotels, and fast-food chains. Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V. was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in San Pedro Garza García, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Gruma, S.A. reported revenue of 6.4B MXN in FY2025 versus 4.6B MXN in FY2021, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was 519M MXN in FY2025, compounding +14.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.3 pp · buybacks/dilution +2.7 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
GRUMAB screens 89% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé India Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Gruma (BMV:GRUMA B) Stock Sees Modest Fair Value Cut After Analyst Model Changes
- How A Fine Tuned Valuation Is Reframing The Gruma (BMV:GRUMA B) Investment Story
- Hispanic Foods Market Forecast & Company Analysis Report 2025, with Profiles of B and G Foods, El Patron, Gruma, Hormel Foods, Juanitas
- Gruma upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 652 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,507 | ₹362.37 | -76% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,646 | ₹1,870 | -67% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,062 | ₹327.27 | -69% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 7,550 IDR | 12,864 IDR | +70% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,219,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -17% |
| Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM | 61,600 VND | 52,858 VND | -14% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹352.60 | ₹144.77 | -59% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,665 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +62% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,630 IDR | 4,350 IDR | -6% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 389,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +36% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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