Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · MX · Market cap 96.6B MXN (≈ $5.7B) · ISIN MXP4948K1056
What is Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. really worth?
A solid business, trading 54% below our fair value of 544.92 MXN.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from 31.96 MXN to 544.92 MXN (+1,605.0%) since Aug 13, 2026.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (376.76 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide (376.76 MXN to 1,238 MXN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 178.02 MXN – 384.24 MXN · fair‑value band 376.76 MXN – 1,238 MXN · the 248.66 MXN price screens below the 544.92 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB) currently trades at 248.66 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 544.92 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 54.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 26 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. generated revenue of 6.5B MXN at a net margin of 7.7%. Revenue grew 4.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.6%. Net debt stands at 1.0B MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 376.76 MXN (bear case) to 1,238 MXN (bull case); at 248.66 MXN, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at 119%, GRUMAB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 13.07 MXN per share, which is 2.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (69.66 MXN) versus Asset-Based (4.39 MXN). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a food company in Mexico, the United States, Europe, Asia, Oceania, and Central America. The company operates through Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (United States); Corn Flour Division (Mexico); Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (Europe); and Other segments.
Full company description
Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a food company in Mexico, the United States, Europe, Asia, Oceania, and Central America. The company operates through Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (United States); Corn Flour Division (Mexico); Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (Europe); and Other segments. It engages in the manufacturing and distribution of corn flours. The company also offers grits snacks and cereals, polenta, and prepared flour; corn and wheat tortillas; tortilla chips, taco shells, and toasted tortillas; wraps, such as pita bread, naan, pizza doughs, and other flatbreads; and sauces and dips, including palmito, snacks, marinades, and pasta. In addition, it provides rice and oats; hearts of palm, and packaged tortillas and snacks; and balanced feed for livestock. Further, the company is involved in research and development of nixtamalized corn flour and tortilla manufacturing equipment; production of machinery for nixtamalized corn flour and tortilla; and construction of nixtamalized corn flour manufacturing facilities. It sells its products under the Maseca, Mission, Guerrero, Tosty, TortiRicas, Rumba, La Cima, Masa Rica, Del Fogón, Arroz Luisiana, Delicados, and Rodotec, as well as Tortimasa, Juana, Mimasa, Bravos, Papiola, Tronaditas, Missiondeli, and Mexifoods brands. The company distributes its products through independent distributors and wholesalers, supermarket chains, retailers, restaurants, cafeterias, hotels, and fast-food chains. Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V. was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in San Pedro Garza García, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. reported revenue of $6.4B in FY2025 versus $4.6B in FY2021, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was $519M in FY2025, compounding +14.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.3 % · buybacks/dilution +2.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 648 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé S.A NESN | CHF 78.62 | CHF 57.26 | −27% |
| Danone S.A BN | €64.28 | €48.41 | −25% |
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,478 | ₹251.94 | −83% |
| The Kraft Heinz Company KHC | $25.13 | $24.59 | −2% |
| Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 | ¥35.05 | ¥21.93 | −37% |
| Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 | ¥25.51 | ¥32.50 | +27% |
| Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 | ¥25.28 | ¥9.89 | −61% |
| General Mills, Inc GIS | $40.44 | $28.32 | −30% |
| Wilmar International Limited F34 | 3.64 SGD | 3.89 SGD | +7% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,511 | ₹1,765 | −68% |
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