Fresnillo PLC (FRES) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · GB · Market cap 18.1B GBX · ISIN GB00B2QPKJ12
What is Fresnillo PLC really worth?
A strong business, but trading 30% above our fair value of £24.15.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Sep 3, 2026, revised from £23.97 to £24.15 (+0.8%) since Aug 20, 2026. Share price +14.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 84/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£30.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £4.01 – £43.51 · fair‑value band £18.11 – £30.31 · the £31.46 price screens above the £24.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
Fresnillo PLC (FRES) currently trades at £31.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £24.15, implying the stock looks roughly 30.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 84/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £48.00 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the £31.46 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £4.21, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Fresnillo PLC generated revenue of £4.6B at a net margin of 30.3%. Revenue grew 30.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of £1.8B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £18.11 (bear case) to £30.31 (bull case); at £31.46, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −23%, FRES screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly £0.2046 per share, which is 0.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£48.00) versus Asset-Based (£4.21). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 86 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Fresnillo plc mines, develops, and produces non-ferrous minerals in Mexico. It operates through seven segments: Fresnillo, Saucito, Ciénega, Herradura, Noche Buena, San Julián, and Juanicipio. The company primarily explores for silver, gold, lead, and zinc concentrates.
Full company description
Fresnillo plc mines, develops, and produces non-ferrous minerals in Mexico. It operates through seven segments: Fresnillo, Saucito, Ciénega, Herradura, Noche Buena, San Julián, and Juanicipio. The company primarily explores for silver, gold, lead, and zinc concentrates. Its projects include the Fresnillo silver mine located in the state of Zacatecas; Saucito mine situated in the state of Zacatecas; Ciénega mine located in the state of Durango; Herradura mine located in the state of Sonora; Noche Buena mine located in the state of Sonora; San Julián mine situated on the border of Chihuahua/Durango states; and Juanicipio mine located in the state of Zacatecas. The company also leases mining equipment; produces lead, silver and zinc concentrates and silver precipitates; produces gold/silver doré bars; mines projects; and provides exploration and administrative services. Fresnillo plc was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico. Fresnillo plc is a subsidiary of Industrias Peñoles, S.A.B. de C.V.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Fresnillo PLC reported revenue of $4.6B in FY2025 versus $2.7B in FY2021, a compound +14.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.4B in FY2025, compounding +35.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +9.5 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
FRES screens 30% overvalued. Compare with PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Fresnillo (LSE:FRES) Stock Sees Fair Value Lift As Analysts Split On Earnings Outlook
- Fresnillo PLC (FNLPF) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Financial Performance and ...
- Fresnillo H1 Earnings Call Highlights
- Sinda Ltd. Announces Closing of Concurrent Placement with Strategic Partner, Fresnillo plc.
Peer Group
Other Precious Metals & Mining · 103 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 18/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk AMMN | 4,480 IDR | 1,021 IDR | −77% |
| Hecla Mining Company HL | $21.43 | $8.14 | −62% |
| Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A. BVN | $35.12 | $29.53 | −16% |
| Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW | $11.85 | $19.35 | +63% |
| China Gold International Resources Corp CGG | C$46.69 | C$25.63 | −45% |
| Artemis Gold Inc ARTG | C$43.62 | C$21.85 | −50% |
| Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp TFPM | $32.25 | $16.03 | −50% |
| PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk. MBMA | 545.00 IDR | 82.43 IDR | −85% |
| Perpetua Resources Corp PPTA | C$34.90 | C$5.80 | −83% |
| Zhaojin International Gold Co 000506 | ¥19.06 | ¥2.84 | −85% |
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