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Fresnillo PLC (FRES) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · GB · Market cap 18.1B GBX · ISIN GB00B2QPKJ12

What is Fresnillo PLC really worth?

FP Fresnillo PLC FRES · LSE
Price£31.46
Fair Value£24.15
Upside−23.2%
Quality84/100

A strong business, but trading 30% above our fair value of £24.15.

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Strengths

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +13.7 %/yr)
Highly profitable · 30.3% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (10/14)
Wide moat 76/100

Risks

!Weak on valuation: 2 out of 100

For context

·3.55% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range £18.11 – £30.31

Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Sep 3, 2026, revised from £23.97 to £24.15 (+0.8%) since Aug 20, 2026. Share price +14.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 84/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£30.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

£43.51 £4.01 Fair Value £24.15 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £4.01 – £43.51 · fair‑value band £18.11 – £30.31 · the £31.46 price screens above the £24.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.

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Analysis

Fresnillo PLC (FRES) currently trades at £31.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £24.15, implying the stock looks roughly 30.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 84/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £48.00 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the £31.46 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £4.21, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Fresnillo PLC generated revenue of £4.6B at a net margin of 30.3%. Revenue grew 30.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of £1.8B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £18.11 (bear case) to £30.31 (bull case); at £31.46, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −23%, FRES screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly £0.2046 per share, which is 0.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence £36.65 £63.21 £108.70 78
Growth DCF £36.50 £61.17 £102.48 76
Owner Earnings £28.83 £49.31 £84.39 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence £36.65 £63.21 £108.70 78
Owner Earnings £28.83 £49.31 £84.39 74
5Y Revenue Exit £17.91 £24.42 £32.41 73
5Y EBITDA Exit £31.22 £51.53 £76.56 74
5Y P/E Exit £28.72 £46.45 £66.30 70
10Y Revenue Exit £23.77 £31.96 £42.99 67
10Y EBITDA Exit £32.77 £51.70 £79.54 67
10Y P/E Exit £31.12 £48.00 £71.04 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd £13.04 £58.05 £79.52 64
Lynch FV £15.07 £21.53 £27.99 61
PEG = 1.0 £15.07 £21.53 £27.99 57
EPV £25.13 £28.91 £32.21 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM £8.32 £17.31 £27.46 66
DDM Multi-Stage £8.32 £14.59 £18.16 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple £24.45 £32.60 £40.75 63
P/S Multiple £7.03 £9.38 £11.72 58
P/B Multiple £14.15 £18.87 £23.59 55
EV/EBIT £34.85 £45.64 £56.43 66
EV/EBITDA £30.94 £40.43 £49.92 67
EV/Revenue £9.04 £11.86 £14.67 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £3.14 £4.21 £6.29 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF £36.50 £61.17 £102.48 76
Rev-Margin DCF £17.91 £24.75 £33.57 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income £12.57 £16.38 £91.56 64
ROIC Compounder £26.79 £32.88 £39.68 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E £22.03 £31.47 £40.91 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (£48.00) versus Asset-Based (£4.21). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 22.0
P/S ratio 6.76 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) £1.40 price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.0
Dividend yield 3.6% payout 79.8%
Net margin 30.7% FY2025
Return on equity 33.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 13.2% avg 5y
Operating margin 54.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) £4.6B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +30.7% 3y avg +23.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +14.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 2.0B GBX FY2025
Net cash 1.8B GBX FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 84/100

Of which business quality 86 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56

Profitability 81
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 94
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 90
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 98
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 62
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 45
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 52
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 75
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Fresnillo plc mines, develops, and produces non-ferrous minerals in Mexico. It operates through seven segments: Fresnillo, Saucito, Ciénega, Herradura, Noche Buena, San Julián, and Juanicipio. The company primarily explores for silver, gold, lead, and zinc concentrates.

Full company description

Fresnillo plc mines, develops, and produces non-ferrous minerals in Mexico. It operates through seven segments: Fresnillo, Saucito, Ciénega, Herradura, Noche Buena, San Julián, and Juanicipio. The company primarily explores for silver, gold, lead, and zinc concentrates. Its projects include the Fresnillo silver mine located in the state of Zacatecas; Saucito mine situated in the state of Zacatecas; Ciénega mine located in the state of Durango; Herradura mine located in the state of Sonora; Noche Buena mine located in the state of Sonora; San Julián mine situated on the border of Chihuahua/Durango states; and Juanicipio mine located in the state of Zacatecas. The company also leases mining equipment; produces lead, silver and zinc concentrates and silver precipitates; produces gold/silver doré bars; mines projects; and provides exploration and administrative services. Fresnillo plc was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico. Fresnillo plc is a subsidiary of Industrias Peñoles, S.A.B. de C.V.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Fresnillo PLC reported revenue of $4.6B in FY2025 versus $2.7B in FY2021, a compound +14.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.4B in FY2025, compounding +35.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
£4.6B
Latest YoY
+31.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+23.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (20Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.7%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+34.0% (30.4 + 3.6)
Revenue +14.3%/yr
FY21 $2.7B
FY22 $2.4B
FY23 $2.7B
FY24 $3.5B
FY25 $4.6B
Net income +35.3%/yr
FY21 $421M
FY22 $272M
FY23 $234M
FY24 $141M
FY25 $1.4B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +12.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share +9.5 %

of which total revenue +9.5 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %

EBIT margin +3.1 %
Tax rate +3.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −3.1 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

FRES screens 30% overvalued. Compare with PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Fresnillo PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FRES

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Other Precious Metals & Mining · 103 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 84 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −23% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 34% · Top 25%
Return on assets 20% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 30% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 55% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 31% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.6% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.18× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 22.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 5.28× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 5.37× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 12.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 8.8× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE2 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 94
PAST100 · sector 0
HEALTH91 · sector 99
DIVIDEND71 · sector 48

Insider activity: 18/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk AMMN 4,480 IDR 1,021 IDR −77%
Hecla Mining Company HL $21.43 $8.14 −62%
Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A. BVN $35.12 $29.53 −16%
Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW $11.85 $19.35 +63%
China Gold International Resources Corp CGG C$46.69 C$25.63 −45%
Artemis Gold Inc ARTG C$43.62 C$21.85 −50%
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp TFPM $32.25 $16.03 −50%
PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk. MBMA 545.00 IDR 82.43 IDR −85%
Perpetua Resources Corp PPTA C$34.90 C$5.80 −83%
Zhaojin International Gold Co 000506 ¥19.06 ¥2.84 −85%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Fresnillo PLC (FRES) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £24.15 versus a price of £31.46, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FRES?
Our model-based fair value for Fresnillo PLC is £24.15 (as of Sep 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £31.46.
What is the quality score of FRES?
Fresnillo PLC has a Quality Score of 84/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Fresnillo PLC (FRES)?
Fresnillo PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £4.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 3, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of FRES?
The net profit margin of Fresnillo PLC is about 30.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 30.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Fresnillo PLC pay a dividend?
Fresnillo PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.55% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 3, 2026).
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