Exxaro Resources Limited (EXX) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · ZA · Market cap 46.8B ZAC
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −3.7% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 88% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (R281.06). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R81.12 – R227.50 · fair‑value band R281.06 – R437.93 · the R191.10 price screens below the R359.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Exxaro Resources Limited (EXX) currently trades at R191.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R359.50, implying the stock looks roughly 88.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Exxaro Resources Limited generated revenue of 41.8B ZAR at a net margin of 18.1%. Revenue declined 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 10.7B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R281.06 (bear case) to R437.93 (bull case); at R191.10, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -5% fair-value upside, at 88%, EXX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (R457.71) versus Asset-Based (R160.17). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Exxaro Resources Limited engages in coal, pigment manufacturing, and renewable energy businesses in South Africa, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company mines and supplies thermal coal, metallurgical coal, and semi-soft coking coal products primarily in the Waterberg and Mpumalanga regions; manufactures ferrosilicon powder; and provides iron ore.
Full company description
Exxaro Resources Limited engages in coal, pigment manufacturing, and renewable energy businesses in South Africa, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company mines and supplies thermal coal, metallurgical coal, and semi-soft coking coal products primarily in the Waterberg and Mpumalanga regions; manufactures ferrosilicon powder; and provides iron ore. Its energy solutions business consists of 229 megawatts of wind power generation assets. The company was formerly known as Kumba Resources Limited and changed its name to Exxaro Resources Limited in November 2006. Exxaro Resources Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Centurion, South Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Exxaro Resources Limited reported revenue of R41.8B in FY2025 versus R32.8B in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was R7.6B in FY2025, compounding −12.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.9 pp · buybacks/dilution +5.2 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Thermal Coal · 99 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 | ¥44.07 | ¥34.97 | -21% |
| Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT | ₹2,965 | ₹891.11 | -70% |
| Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 | ¥25.08 | ¥23.90 | -5% |
| Yankuang Energy Group 600188 | ¥22.09 | ¥13.24 | -40% |
| Coal India Limited COALINDIA | ₹409.30 | ₹464.01 | +13% |
| China Coal Energy Company 601898 | ¥13.93 | ¥13.91 | -0% |
| Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 | ¥26.48 | ¥20.72 | -22% |
| Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 | ¥16.27 | ¥7.20 | -56% |
| PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk, ADRO | 2,520 IDR | 3,037 IDR | +21% |
| PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk AADI | 9,350 IDR | 13,935 IDR | +49% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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