Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · ZA · Market cap 46.8B ZAC · ISIN ZAE000084992
What is Exxaro Resources Ltd really worth?
A solid business, trading 45% below our fair value of R359.50.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price −1.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (R281.06). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R81.12 – R227.50 · fair‑value band R281.06 – R437.93 · the R196.46 price screens below the R359.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
Analysis
Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX) currently trades at R196.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R359.50, implying the stock looks roughly 45.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R457.71 per share, and 25 of the 26 models we run sit above the R196.46 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R160.17, and 1 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Exxaro Resources Ltd generated revenue of 41.8B ZAR at a net margin of 18.1%. Revenue declined 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 10.7B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R281.06 (bear case) to R437.93 (bull case); at R196.46, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 83%, EXX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 9.94 ZAR per share, which is 2.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (R457.71) versus Asset-Based (R160.17). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Exxaro Resources Limited engages in coal, pigment manufacturing, and renewable energy businesses in South Africa, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company mines and supplies thermal coal, metallurgical coal, and semi-soft coking coal products primarily in the Waterberg and Mpumalanga regions; manufactures ferrosilicon powder; and provides iron ore.
Full company description
Exxaro Resources Limited engages in coal, pigment manufacturing, and renewable energy businesses in South Africa, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company mines and supplies thermal coal, metallurgical coal, and semi-soft coking coal products primarily in the Waterberg and Mpumalanga regions; manufactures ferrosilicon powder; and provides iron ore. Its energy solutions business consists of 229 megawatts of wind power generation assets. The company was formerly known as Kumba Resources Limited and changed its name to Exxaro Resources Limited in November 2006. Exxaro Resources Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Centurion, South Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Exxaro Resources Ltd reported revenue of 41.8B ZAR in FY2025 versus 32.8B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was 7.6B ZAR in FY2025, compounding −12.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.9 % · buybacks/dilution +4.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXXAF) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Safety, Coal Growth, ...
- Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXXAF) (Full Year 2025) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Safety Milestone ...
- Exxaro Resources (JSE:EXX) jumps 4.7% this week, though earnings growth is still tracking behind five-year shareholder returns
- Exxaro Resources Limited (JSE:EXX) Goes Ex-Dividend Soon
Peer Group
Thermal Coal · 99 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 | ¥48.05 | ¥34.97 | −27% |
| PT Bayan Resources Tbk., BYAN | 15,325 IDR | 3,542 IDR | −77% |
| Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT | ₹2,965 | ₹891.11 | −70% |
| Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 | ¥25.08 | ¥23.90 | −5% |
| Yankuang Energy Group 600188 | ¥21.60 | ¥13.24 | −39% |
| Coal India Limited COALINDIA | ₹417.85 | ₹464.01 | +11% |
| 533278 533278 | ₹406.50 | ₹660.78 | +63% |
| China Coal Energy Company 601898 | ¥13.93 | ¥13.91 | +0% |
| PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk, DSSA | 1,145 IDR | 352.75 IDR | −69% |
| Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 | ¥26.48 | ¥20.72 | −22% |
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