Exelixis Inc (EXEL) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $14.0B · ISIN US30161Q1040
What is Exelixis Inc really worth?
Exelixis Inc
EXEL · US
A strong business, but trading 15% above our fair value of $51.43.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +5.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($38.88 to $139.86). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.96 – $59.13 · fair‑value band $38.88 – $139.86 · the $59.13 price screens above the $51.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
Exelixis Inc (EXEL) currently trades at $59.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $51.43, implying the stock looks roughly 15.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 94/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $107.58 per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the $59.13 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.76, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Exelixis Inc generated revenue of $2.4B at a net margin of 35.1%. Revenue grew 10.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 41.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $309M. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $38.88 (bear case) to $139.86 (bull case); at $59.13, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −13%, EXEL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.05 per share, which is 4.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($107.58) versus Asset-Based ($5.76). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 90 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 86
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Exelixis, Inc., an oncology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of new medicines for difficult-to-treat cancers in the United States.
Full company description
Exelixis, Inc., an oncology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of new medicines for difficult-to-treat cancers in the United States. The company offers CABOMETYX tablets for the treatment of patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma who received prior anti-angiogenic therapy; and COMETRIQ capsules for the treatment of progressive and metastatic medullary thyroid cancer. Its CABOMETYX and COMETRIQ are derived from cabozantinib, an inhibitor of multiple tyrosine kinases, including MET, AXL, RET, and VEGF receptors. The company also offers COTELLIC, an inhibitor of MEK as a combination regimen to treat specific forms of advanced melanoma; and MINNEBRO, an oral non-steroidal selective blocker of the mineralocorticoid receptor for the treatment of hypertension in Japan. It develops zanzalintinib, a novel, potent oral inhibitor of kinases, including the TAM kinases, MET, and VEGF receptors; XL309, a small molecule inhibitor of USP1, a synthetic lethal target in the context of BRCA-mutated tumors; XB010, an antibody-drug conjugates (ADC) consisting of a MMAE payload conjugated to a monoclonal antibody targeting the tumor antigen 5T4; XB628, a first-in-class bispecific antibody that targets programmed cell death ligand 1and natural killer cell receptor group 2A; and XB371, a next-generation tissue factor targeting ADC with a topoisomerase inhibitor payload. It has research collaborations and license agreements with Ipsen Pharma SAS; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Ltd.; F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd.; Catalent, Inc.; Iconic Therapeutics, Inc.; Adagene Inc.; Invenra, Inc.; Genentech, Inc.; Bristol-Myers Squibb Company; and Daiichi Sankyo Company, Limited, as well as business development activities and other collaborations. The company was formerly known as Exelixis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and changed its name to Exelixis, Inc. in February 2000. Exelixis, Inc. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Alameda, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Exelixis Inc reported revenue of $2.3B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +12.8%/yr. Reported net income was $783M in FY2025, compounding +35.7%/yr from FY2021.
EXEL screens 15% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Exelixis to Webcast Fireside Chats as Part of Upcoming Investor Conferences in September
- Exelixis Announces Update on Patent Litigation Trial Appeal with MSN Laboratories
- Strong Sales, Earnings Send Exelixis Shares Higher
- Exelixis Owners Keep Getting A Bigger Slice Of A Company In Transition
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 622 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $547.55 | $278.78 | −49% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $807.71 | $594.40 | −26% |
| argenx SE ARGX | €877.60 | €292.84 | −67% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,518,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | −30% |
| CSL Limited CSL | A$174.50 | A$141.68 | −19% |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY | $228.61 | $51.70 | −77% |
| Royalty Pharma plc RPRX | $60.58 | $24.22 | −60% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 190,700 KRW | 74,519 KRW | −61% |
| BeOne Medicines AG ONC | $362.51 | $111.35 | −69% |
| BioNTech SE BNTX | $111.40 | $45.66 | −59% |
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