Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $7.9B · ISIN US29786A1060
What is Etsy, Inc. really worth?
Etsy, Inc.
ETSY · US
A solid business, but trading 89% above our fair value of $43.35.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price −5.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($54.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $40.80 – $296.91 · fair‑value band $32.41 – $54.29 · the $82.03 price screens above the $43.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) currently trades at $82.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $43.35, implying the stock looks roughly 89.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $92.65 per share, and 6 of the 23 models we run sit above the $82.03 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $21.65, and 17 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Etsy, Inc. generated revenue of $2.9B at a net margin of 9.8%. Revenue grew 3.1% year over year. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $653M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 32.3. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $32.41 (bear case) to $54.29 (bull case); at $82.03, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 86% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −47%, ETSY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.72 per share, which is 4.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($92.65) versus Dividend Discount ($2.27). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Etsy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates two-sided online marketplaces that connect buyers and sellers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through Etsy and Depop segments. The company operates Etsy marketplace that connects artisans with various consumers; and Depop, a fashion resale marketplace.
Full company description
Etsy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates two-sided online marketplaces that connect buyers and sellers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through Etsy and Depop segments. The company operates Etsy marketplace that connects artisans with various consumers; and Depop, a fashion resale marketplace. It also provides marketplace activities, including transaction offsite advertising, payments processing, and listing fees, as well as from optional seller services, which include on-site advertising and shipping labels. The company was formerly known as Indieco, Inc changed its name to Etsy, Inc. in June 2006. Etsy, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Brooklyn, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Etsy, Inc. reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was $163M in FY2025, compounding −24.2%/yr from FY2021.
ETSY screens 89% overvalued. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Shopify Falls 4% as Profit Taking Follows 18% Monthly Run, eBay and Etsy Slip
- Etsy Director Charles Ballard Sells 4,500 Shares for $368,325
Peer Group
Internet Retail · 103 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com, Inc AMZN | $256.26 | $127.67 | −50% |
| Alibaba Group 89988 | HK$97.45 | HK$48.38 | −50% |
| PDD Holdings PDD | $85.69 | $225.48 | +163% |
| MercadoLibre, Inc MELI | $1,966 | $798.98 | −59% |
| DoorDash, Inc DASH | $222.00 | $38.64 | −83% |
| Sea Limited SE | $118.32 | $52.70 | −55% |
| JD.com, Inc 89618 | ¥95.45 | ¥73.98 | −22% |
| eBay Inc EBAY | $105.62 | $60.13 | −43% |
| Coupang, Inc CPNG | $16.32 | $2.79 | −83% |
| Delivery Hero SE DHER | €37.05 | €12.71 | −66% |
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