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Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Discretionary · HK · Market cap HK$2.4T (≈ $305B)

What is Alibaba Group Holding Limited really worth?

AG Alibaba Group Holding Limited 89988 · HK
PriceHK$94.15
Fair ValueHK$48.38
Upside−48.6%
Quality43/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 95% above our fair value of HK$48.38.

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Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 10.1% net margin
✓Ranks above peers (8/12)

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +7.4 %/yr)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 32/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 15 out of 100

For context

·7.69% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range HK$36.28 – HK$60.47

Fair value as of: Aug 26, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated 10 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 26, 2026, revised from HK$61.74 to HK$48.38 (−21.6%) since Aug 23, 2026. Share price −14.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$60.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.

Price vs Fair Value (3 years)

HK$167.82 HK$57.49 Fair Value HK$48.38 Jun 2023 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

39‑month range HK$57.49 – HK$167.82 · fair‑value band HK$36.28 – HK$60.47 · the HK$94.15 price screens above the HK$48.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 26, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988) currently trades at HK$94.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$48.38, implying the stock looks roughly 94.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Discretionary sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$71.77 per share, and 1 of the 17 models we run sit above the HK$94.15 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$11.29, and 16 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Alibaba Group Holding Limited generated revenue of HK$1.0T at a net margin of 10.1%. Revenue grew 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.2%. Net debt stands at HK$86.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 26, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$36.28 (bear case) to HK$60.47 (bull case); at HK$94.15, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Discretionary peers we cover trades at −55% fair-value upside, at −49%, 89988 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 5 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$6.02 per share, which is 12.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$35.81 HK$39.70 HK$62.98 75
EPV HK$9.39 HK$11.29 HK$12.97 74
Owner Earnings HK$9.39 HK$18.12 HK$33.69 73
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings HK$9.39 HK$18.12 HK$33.69 73
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$26.15 HK$114.75 HK$157.04 64
Lynch FV HK$29.64 HK$42.34 HK$55.04 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$29.64 HK$42.34 HK$55.04 57
EPV HK$9.39 HK$11.29 HK$12.97 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$12.04 HK$26.29 HK$44.24 65
DDM Multi-Stage HK$12.04 HK$21.54 HK$27.40 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$63.45 HK$84.60 HK$105.75 63
P/S Multiple HK$34.20 HK$45.60 HK$57.00 58
P/B Multiple HK$49.03 HK$65.37 HK$81.71 55
EV/EBIT HK$27.64 HK$37.29 HK$46.95 66
EV/EBITDA HK$33.02 HK$44.47 HK$55.92 67
EV/Revenue HK$18.19 HK$26.56 HK$34.93 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$20.34 HK$27.25 HK$40.68 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$35.81 HK$39.70 HK$62.98 75
ROIC Compounder HK$9.39 HK$11.29 HK$12.97 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$50.24 HK$71.77 HK$93.30 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$71.77) versus Economic Profit (HK$11.29). Highest evidence: Residual Income (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 2.34 TTM
EPS (TTM) HK$21.24
Dividend yield 7.7% payout 34.1%
Net margin 10.1% FY2026
Return on equity 9.2% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 1.0% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$1.0T TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +2.9% 3y avg +4.4%
EPS growth (YoY) +104%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −HK$49.0B FY2026
Net debt HK$86.3B FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 13
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 72
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 18
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 50
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally.

Full company description

Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through the Alibaba China E-Commerce Group, Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and All Others segments. The Alibaba China E-commerce Group segment operates Taobao and Tmall, which are digital retail platforms; Taobao Instant Commerce, a local services and on-demand delivery platform; 1688.com, a domestic wholesale marketplace; and Xianyu, a consumer-to-consumer community and marketplace for idle goods. Its Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group segment includes AliExpress, a global e-commerce platform; Trendyol, an e-commerce platform in Turkey; Lazada, an e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia; Daraz, an e-commerce platform in South Asia, primarily in Pakistan and Bangladesh; and Alibaba.com, an integrated international online wholesale marketplace. The Cloud Intelligence Group segment offers a suite of cloud services based on infrastructure-as-a-service, platform-as-a-service, and model-as-a-service. Its All Others segment comprises Amap, a provider of mobile digital maps, navigation, and real-time traffic information in China; Cainiao, which provides logistics solutions; Youku, an online long-form video platform in China; Freshippo, a retail platform for groceries and fresh goods; and Alibaba Health, a pharmaceutical and healthcare services platform. Alibaba Group Holding Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Alibaba Group Holding Limited reported revenue of HK$990B in FY2026 versus HK$853B in FY2022, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$100B in FY2026, compounding +12.8%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 42/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
HK$990B
Latest YoY
−0.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (9Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+22.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+2.4% (−5.3 + 7.7)
Revenue +3.8%/yr
FY22 HK$853B
FY23 HK$869B
FY24 HK$941B
FY25 HK$996B
FY26 HK$990B
Net income +12.8%/yr
FY22 HK$62.0B
FY23 HK$72.5B
FY24 HK$80.0B
FY25 HK$130B
FY26 HK$100B

89988 screens 95% overvalued. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alibaba Group Holding Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/89988

Peer Group

Internet Retail · 103 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +20% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Revenue growth 3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.7% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.20× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.29× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.30× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 3.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE60 · sector 23
FUTURE15 · sector 52
PAST37 · sector 12
HEALTH90 · sector 94
DIVIDEND100 · sector 38

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frequently asked questions

Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$48.38 versus a price of HK$94.15, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 89988?
Our model-based fair value for Alibaba Group Holding Limited is HK$48.38 (as of Aug 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$94.15.
What is the quality score of 89988?
Alibaba Group Holding Limited has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988)?
Alibaba Group Holding Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.0T (latest available figure, as of Aug 26, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 89988?
The net profit margin of Alibaba Group Holding Limited is about 10.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Alibaba Group Holding Limited pay a dividend?
Alibaba Group Holding Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.69% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 26, 2026).
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