Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · BR · Market cap R$57.4B (≈ $11.3B)
What is Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A really worth?
A strong business, but trading 59% above our fair value of R$12.46.
Strengths
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 9 days ago
Share price +0.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$15.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$4.67 – R$22.05 · fair‑value band R$9.35 – R$15.58 · the R$19.77 price screens above the R$12.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A (CXSE3) currently trades at R$19.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$12.46, implying the stock looks roughly 58.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of R$20.31 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the R$19.77 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$3.03, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A generated revenue of R$5.8B at a net margin of 75.1%. Revenue grew 7.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 31.6%. Net debt stands at R$18.4M. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$9.35 (bear case) to R$15.58 (bull case); at R$19.77, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −37%, CXSE3 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly R$0.5603 per share, which is 4.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (R$20.31) versus Asset-Based (R$3.03). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (66).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance products in Brazil and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Run-Off/Open Sea, Security, and Distribution.
Full company description
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance products in Brazil and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Run-Off/Open Sea, Security, and Distribution. It offers life, home and housing, personal accident, and debt-free insurance products for individuals; and life, home and housing, car, and lender's insurance products for businesses. The company also provides social security, including private and corporate pension plans; capitalization; consortium; and brokerage and intermediation of security products. In addition, it engages in the acquisition of equity interests or holding; administration, marketing, and provision of private health and dental plans; structuring, administration, and marketing of credit letters; and reinsurance and retrocession transactions. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brasília, Brazil. Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Caixa Econômica Federal.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A reported revenue of R$2.5B in FY2025 versus R$895M in FY2021, a compound +28.8%/yr. Reported net income was R$4.3B in FY2025, compounding +24.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +12.3 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CXSE3 screens 59% overvalued. Compare with Berkshire Hathaway Inc →
Peer Group
Insurance - Diversified · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRKB80 | 1.67 THB | 1.48 THB | −11% |
| Allianz SE ALV | €453.00 | €266.04 | −41% |
| Zurich Insurance Group ZURN | CHF 596.00 | CHF 335.07 | −44% |
| AXA SA CS | €43.61 | €39.90 | −9% |
| Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G | €44.11 | €10.92 | −75% |
| Sun Life Financial Inc SLF | C$108.85 | C$57.05 | −48% |
| American International Group AIG | $76.14 | $80.91 | +6% |
| The Hartford Insurance Group HIG | $137.38 | $133.10 | −3% |
| Arch Capital Group ACGL | $98.76 | $124.45 | +26% |
| Swiss Life Holding SLHN | CHF 919.00 | CHF 425.23 | −54% |
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