Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $2.4B · ISIN US23204X1037

What is Custom Truck One Source Inc really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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What matters now

• The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
• The model range is unusually wide ($6.96 to $18.68). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.11 – $11.97 · fair‑value band $6.96 – $18.68 · the $8.94 price screens below the $12.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS) currently trades at $8.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.82, implying the stock looks roughly 30.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $3.49 per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the $8.94 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.38, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Custom Truck One Source Inc generated revenue of $2.0B at a net margin of −0.9%. Revenue grew 9.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −2.2%. Net debt stands at $2.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $6.96 (bear case) to $18.68 (bull case); at $8.94, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 94% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 43%, CTOS screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($3.49) versus Asset-Based ($2.38). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (66).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Custom Truck One Source, Inc. provides specialty equipment rental and sale services to electric utility transmission and distribution, telecommunications, rail, forestry, waste management, and other infrastructure-related industries in the United States and Canada.

Full company description

Custom Truck One Source, Inc. provides specialty equipment rental and sale services to electric utility transmission and distribution, telecommunications, rail, forestry, waste management, and other infrastructure-related industries in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments: Specialty Equipment Rentals (SER); and Specialty Truck Equipment and Manufacturing (STEM). The company owns new and used specialty equipment, including truck-mounted aerial lifts, cranes, service trucks, dump trucks, trailers, digger derricks, and other machinery and equipment. It offers new equipment for sale to be used for end-markets, which can be modified to meet customers specific needs. In addition, the company provides truck and equipment maintenance and repair services; and rents and sells specialized tools, including stringing blocks, insulated hot stick, and rigging equipment, as well as sale of specialized aftermarket parts. The company was formerly known as Nesco Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Custom Truck One Source, Inc. in April 2021. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Custom Truck One Source Inc reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +13.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$31.1M in FY2025.

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Peer Group

Rental & Leasing Services · 90 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Rental & Leasing Services median · lower = cheaper

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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