Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · BR · Market cap R$25.6B (≈ $5.0B) · ISIN BRCSMGACNOR5
What is Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais really worth?
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of R$60.17.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price −11.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (R$37.58 to R$80.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$7.55 – R$67.45 · fair‑value band R$37.58 – R$80.00 · the R$56.88 price screens below the R$60.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3) currently trades at R$56.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$60.17, implying the stock looks roughly 5.5% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$71.30 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$56.88 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$15.16, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais generated revenue of R$8.4B at a net margin of 16.1%. Revenue grew 3.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.9%. Net debt stands at R$7.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$37.58 (bear case) to R$80.00 (bull case); at R$56.88, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 155% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 6%, CSMG3 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly R$1.58 per share, which is 2.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (R$71.30) versus Asset-Based (R$15.16). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais plans, executes, expands, remodels, and explores public services, basic sanitation, water supply, sewage, sanitary, and solid waste in Brazil and internationally.
Full company description
Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais plans, executes, expands, remodels, and explores public services, basic sanitation, water supply, sewage, sanitary, and solid waste in Brazil and internationally. It is involved in collection, treatment, and distribution of treated water to end consumers; collection, transportation, recycling, treatment, and final disposal of urban, domestic, and industrial waste; and urban cleaning and solid waste management, as well as drainage and management of urban rainwater. The company was formerly known as Companhia Mineira de Água e Esgotos and changed its name to Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais in November 1974. Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais reported revenue of R$8.3B in FY2025 versus R$5.9B in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was R$1.4B in FY2025, compounding +27.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.6 % · buybacks/dilution −0.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Water · 64 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Water Works Company AWK | $138.30 | $65.80 | −52% |
| SBS SBS | $4.82 | $8.13 | +69% |
| Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG | $41.10 | $21.81 | −47% |
| Guangdong Investment Limited 0270 | HK$8.15 | HK$12.82 | +57% |
| Grandblue Environment Co 600323 | ¥29.61 | ¥33.29 | +12% |
| American States Water Company AWR | $89.88 | $47.94 | −47% |
| Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 | ¥7.35 | ¥9.09 | +24% |
| California Water Service Group CWT | $50.48 | $33.56 | −34% |
| Chongqing Water Group 601158 | ¥4.14 | ¥2.77 | −33% |
| Beijing Enterprises Water Group 0371 | HK$1.74 | HK$3.00 | +73% |
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Frequently asked questions
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