Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $16.2B · ISIN US1725731079

What is Circle Internet Group, Inc. really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (15 months)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.

How to read this chart

15‑month range $31.00 – $263.45 · fair‑value band $6.26 – $10.42 · the $103.23 price screens above the $8.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) currently trades at $103.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.34, implying the stock looks roughly 1,137.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 8 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Circle Internet Group, Inc. generated revenue of $2.9B at a net margin of −2.8%. Revenue grew 20.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −3.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $77.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $6.26 (bear case) to $10.42 (bull case); at $103.23, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and 107% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −92%, CRCL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($12.31) versus Asset-Based ($9.70). Highest evidence: P/B Multiple (55).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Circle Internet Group, Inc. operates as a platform, network, and market infrastructure for stablecoin and blockchain applications.

Full company description

Circle Internet Group, Inc. operates as a platform, network, and market infrastructure for stablecoin and blockchain applications. The company provides various platform including Arc Blockchain and Developer Infrastructure, an open, layer-1 blockchain network purpose-built to bring real world economic activity onchain; Circle Digital Assets and Services, which includes circle digital assets, USDC, EURC, and USYC, as well as circle mint and xreserve, related liquidity, custody, and trust infrastructure; and Circle Applications, which includes circle payments network and stablefx, applications that use circle digital assets to deliver real-world utility on the arc network and across the broader multichain ecosystem. Its stablecoins network comprises circle stablecoins, tokenized funds, liquidity, payments network, and developer services, as well as integration services. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in New York, New York.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Circle Internet Group, Inc. reported revenue of $2.7B in FY2025 versus $84.9M in FY2021, a compound +138.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$69.5M in FY2025.

CRCL screens 1,138% overvalued. Compare with Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, →

Peer Group

Capital Markets · 453 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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