Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $16.2B
Circle Internet Group
CRCL · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +19.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 89% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (14 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
14‑month range $31.00 – $263.45 · fair‑value band $6.26 – $10.42 · the $75.38 price screens above the $8.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Circle Internet Group (CRCL) currently trades at $75.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.34, implying the stock looks roughly 88.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Circle Internet Group generated revenue of $2.9B at a net margin of -2.8%. Revenue grew 20.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $77.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.26 (bear case) to $10.42 (bull case); at $75.38, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 75% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -89%, CRCL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($12.31) versus Asset-Based ($9.70). Highest evidence: P/B Multiple (55).
Notify me when CRCL reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 13
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Circle Internet Group, Inc. operates as a platform, network, and market infrastructure for stablecoin and blockchain applications.
Full company description
Circle Internet Group, Inc. operates as a platform, network, and market infrastructure for stablecoin and blockchain applications. The company provides various platform including Arc Blockchain and Developer Infrastructure, an open, layer-1 blockchain network purpose-built to bring real world economic activity onchain; Circle Digital Assets and Services, which includes circle digital assets, USDC, EURC, and USYC, as well as circle mint and xreserve, related liquidity, custody, and trust infrastructure; and Circle Applications, which includes circle payments network and stablefx, applications that use circle digital assets to deliver real-world utility on the arc network and across the broader multichain ecosystem. Its stablecoins network comprises circle stablecoins, tokenized funds, liquidity, payments network, and developer services, as well as integration services. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Circle Internet Group reported revenue of $2.7B in FY2025 versus $84.9M in FY2021, a compound +138.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$69.5M in FY2025.
CRCL screens 89% overvalued. Compare with Mirae Asset Securities Co →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Launches Arc As Its Growth Story Moves Beyond USDC
- Bernstein says Circle investors are focusing on wrong risks
- Circle’s USDC volume jumps 151%, but revenue tells different story
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 425 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 | 38,050 KRW | 18,009 KRW | -53% |
| Meritz Financial Group 138040 | 118,600 KRW | 52,717 KRW | -56% |
| Korea Investment Holdings 071050 | 200,500 KRW | 189,335 KRW | -6% |
| NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 | 28,550 KRW | 22,396 KRW | -22% |
| Samsung Securities Co 016360 | 93,100 KRW | 75,573 KRW | -19% |
| Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 | 299,000 KRW | 214,812 KRW | -28% |
| SSI Securities Corporation SSI | 25,300 VND | 17,375 VND | -31% |
| Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA | 313.75 ARS | 294.30 ARS | -6% |
| Daishin Securities Co 003540 | 26,950 KRW | 48,790 KRW | +81% |
| SK Securities Co 001515 | 4,285 KRW | 1,395 KRW | -67% |
Compare Circle Internet Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Financial Services stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Circle Internet Group (CRCL) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of CRCL?
What is the quality score of CRCL?
What is the revenue of Circle Internet Group (CRCL)?
What is the net profit margin of CRCL?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Circle Internet Group and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.