CPX.TO (CPX) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · CA · Market cap C$11.7B (≈ $8.5B) · ISIN CA14042M1023
What is CPX.TO really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 322% above our fair value of C$14.77.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 14, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −7.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$18.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (19/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$29.26 – C$75.95 · fair‑value band C$11.08 – C$18.47 · the C$62.32 price screens above the C$14.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
Analysis
CPX.TO (CPX) currently trades at C$62.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$14.77, implying the stock looks roughly 321.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 19/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of C$34.77 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the C$62.32 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at C$10.46, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, CPX.TO generated revenue of C$3.8B at a net margin of 0.6%. Revenue grew 23.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.5%. Net debt stands at C$6.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$11.08 (bear case) to C$18.47 (bull case); at C$62.32, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −76%, CPX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (C$34.77) versus Earnings-Based (C$10.46). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 23 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Capital Power Corporation develops, acquires, owns, and operates utility-scale renewable and flexible generation facilities in Canada and the United States. The company generates electricity from various energy sources, including wind, waste heat, solar, landfill gas, gas, and battery storage.
Full company description
Capital Power Corporation develops, acquires, owns, and operates utility-scale renewable and flexible generation facilities in Canada and the United States. The company generates electricity from various energy sources, including wind, waste heat, solar, landfill gas, gas, and battery storage. It also manages its related electricity and natural gas portfolios by undertaking trading and marketing activities. In addition, the company owns approximately 12 GW of gross power generation capacity in North America; 180 MW of renewable generation capacity in North Carolina; approximately 170 MW of new battery energy storage systems in Ontario. Capital Power Corporation was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Edmonton, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CPX.TO reported revenue of C$3.3B in FY2025 versus C$2.8B in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was C$160M in FY2025, compounding +13.0%/yr from FY2021.
CPX screens 322% overvalued. Compare with Constellation Energy Corporation →
Peer Group
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constellation Energy Corporation CEG | $285.05 | $88.09 | −69% |
| Vistra Corp VST | $144.22 | $50.39 | −65% |
| Adani Power Limited ADANIPOWER | ₹206.10 | ₹75.57 | −63% |
| CGN Power Co 003816 | ¥4.33 | ¥3.62 | −16% |
| Gulf Development Public Company GULF | 63.25 THB | 39.25 THB | −38% |
| NRG Energy, Inc NRG | $109.51 | $53.91 | −51% |
| Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL | ₹1,583 | ₹342.02 | −78% |
| Talen Energy Corporation TLN | $365.07 | $43.55 | −88% |
| Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 | ¥5.89 | ¥4.95 | −16% |
| Huaneng Power International, Inc 600011 | ¥6.92 | ¥9.14 | +32% |
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