Capital Power Corporation (CPX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Capital Power Corporation is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
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Utilities · CA · Market cap C$11.7B (≈ $8.5B) · ISIN CA14042M1023
At a glance
CPCapital Power CorporationCPX · TO
PriceC$62.03
Fair ValueC$14.77
Upside−76.2%
Quality19/100
Below-average quality, and trading another 320% above our fair value of C$14.77.
As of Aug 14, 2026, the fair value of Capital Power Corporation is C$14.77 per share against a price of C$62.03, so the fair value sits 76% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +11.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.6% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·4.33% dividend yield
!Trails peers (2/14)
!Narrow moat 29/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 2 out of 100
Evidence: MediumRange C$11.08 to C$18.47
Fair value as of: Aug 14, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Share price −5.2% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$18.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Weak quality (19/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$29.76 – C$75.95 · fair‑value band C$11.08 – C$18.47 · the C$62.03 price screens above the C$14.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
Capital Power Corporation (CPX) currently trades at C$62.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$14.77, implying the stock looks roughly 319.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 19/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of C$34.77 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the C$62.03 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at C$10.46, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Capital Power Corporation generated revenue of C$3.8B at a net margin of 0.6%. Revenue grew 23.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.5%. Net debt stands at C$6.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 14, 2026
Scenario range: C$11.08 (bear) to C$18.47 (bull), the price of C$62.03 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −76%, CPX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidenceC$22.89C$22.69C$19.9074
Growth-Adj P/EC$11.48C$16.40C$21.3265
Gordon GGMC$19.83C$41.24C$65.4264
All 11 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddC$6.95C$28.95C$39.4862
Lynch FVC$7.32C$10.46C$13.6059
PEG = 1.0C$7.32C$10.46C$13.6055
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMC$19.83C$41.24C$65.4264
DDM Multi-StageC$19.83C$34.77C$43.2864
Multiples
P/E MultipleC$13.80C$18.40C$23.0163
P/S MultipleC$13.04C$17.38C$21.7358
P/B MultipleC$13.04C$17.38C$21.7355
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)C$15.52C$20.80C$31.0454
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidenceC$22.89C$22.69C$19.9074
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EC$11.48C$16.40C$21.3265
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (C$34.77) versus Earnings-Based (C$10.46). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).
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Key figures & financial health
P/S ratio3.05TTM
EPS (TTM)C$−0.1100
Dividend yield4.3%
Net margin4.8%FY2025
Return on equity0.5%TTM
Return on assets (EBIT)4.7%avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin9.3%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)C$3.8BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+23.4%3y avg −9.6%
EPS growth (YoY)−96.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flowC$47.0MFY2025
Net debtC$6.8BFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality19/100
Of which business quality 23
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Profitability17
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow54
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength18
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment8
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum42
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance0
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Capital Power Corporation develops, acquires, owns, and operates utility-scale renewable and flexible generation facilities in Canada and the United States. The company generates electricity from various energy sources, including wind, waste heat, solar, landfill gas, gas, and battery storage.
Full company description
Capital Power Corporation develops, acquires, owns, and operates utility-scale renewable and flexible generation facilities in Canada and the United States. The company generates electricity from various energy sources, including wind, waste heat, solar, landfill gas, gas, and battery storage. It also manages its related electricity and natural gas portfolios by undertaking trading and marketing activities. In addition, the company owns approximately 12 GW of gross power generation capacity in North America; 180 MW of renewable generation capacity in North Carolina; approximately 170 MW of new battery energy storage systems in Ontario. Capital Power Corporation was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Edmonton, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Capital Power Corporation reported revenue of C$3.3B in FY2025 versus C$2.8B in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was C$160M in FY2025, compounding +13.0%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
C$3.3B
Latest YoY
+12.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−9.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (18Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.3%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+2.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−2.3%
Dividend yield4.3%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −2.3% vs 10Y 1.3%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19.4% (2020) → −6.4% (2025) · falling
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Capital Power Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CPX
Peer Group
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score19 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−77% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth23% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.31× · Above median
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.74× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)2.21× · Pricier than median
P/FCF180.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA17.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.43× · Pricier than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Capital Power Corporation deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+43.8 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+11.8 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+0.7 %
FCF yield on price0.50 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.3 %
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 17
FUTURE100· sector 0
PAST2· sector 29
HEALTH34· sector 70
DIVIDEND87· sector 51
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 14, 2026).
Is Capital Power Corporation (CPX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$14.77 versus a price of C$62.03, about −76% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CPX?
Our model-based fair value for Capital Power Corporation is C$14.77 (as of Aug 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$62.03.
What is the quality score of CPX?
Capital Power Corporation has a Quality Score of 19/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$14.77 (as of Aug 14, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$11.08, optimistic scenario C$18.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Capital Power Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$14.77, about −76% upside versus a price of C$62.03 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$11.08, optimistic scenario C$18.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
Capital Power Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$3.8B (latest available figure, as of Aug 14, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CPX?
The net profit margin of Capital Power Corporation is about 0.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Capital Power Corporation pay a dividend?
Capital Power Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.33% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 14, 2026).
What growth is priced into Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Capital Power Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +43.8 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.3 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.8 % per year. As of Aug 14, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CPX use?
Our models discount Capital Power Corporation at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Capital Power Corporation it is C$14.77 per share (as of Aug 14, 2026), against a price of C$62.03. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Capital Power Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 14, 2026, CPX trades above its calculated fair value: price C$62.03, fair value C$14.77, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CPX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$62.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$14.77). For Capital Power Corporation the two are C$47.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Capital Power Corporation worth?
The market values Capital Power Corporation at about C$11.7B (market capitalisation, as of Aug 14, 2026). Per share that is C$62.03; our models calculate a fair value of C$14.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CPX?
Our models span a range for Capital Power Corporation: cautious scenario C$11.08, base C$14.77, optimistic C$18.47 per share (as of Aug 14, 2026, price C$62.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CPX?
The PEG ratio of Capital Power Corporation is 1.43 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Aug 14, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Capital Power Corporation (as of Aug 14, 2026): return on equity 0.5%, debt of 1.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 19/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CPX from its 52-week high?
Capital Power Corporation trades at C$62.03, about 15% below its 52-week high of C$72.83 and 19% above the low of C$52.27 (as of Aug 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$14.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Capital Power Corporation?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Constellation Energy Corporation, Vistra Corp, Adani Power Limited, CGN Power Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Capital Power Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 14, 2026: price C$62.03, calculated fair value C$14.77 (−76%), Quality Score 19/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CPX calculated?
We run Capital Power Corporation through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$14.77, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Capital Power Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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