Cummins Inc (CMI) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $93.2B · ISIN US2310211063
What is Cummins Inc really worth?
Cummins Inc
CMI · US
A solid business, but trading 56% above our fair value of $348.94.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −14.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($198.52 to $540.83). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $169.73 – $727.59 · fair‑value band $198.52 – $540.83 · the $545.50 price screens above the $348.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
Cummins Inc (CMI) currently trades at $545.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $348.94, implying the stock looks roughly 56.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $400.77 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $545.50 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $59.96, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Cummins Inc generated revenue of $33.9B at a net margin of 7.9%. Revenue grew 2.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.0%. Net debt stands at $5.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $198.52 (bear case) to $540.83 (bull case); at $545.50, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 80% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at −36%, CMI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $7.74 per share, which is 2.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($400.77) versus Asset-Based ($59.96). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Cummins Inc. offers various power solutions worldwide. The company operates through five segments: Engine, Distribution, Components, Power Systems, and Accelera. It offers diesel and natural gas-powered engines; and drivetrain systems, including axles, drivelines, brakes, and suspension systems; and on- and off-highway, and other products.
Full company description
Cummins Inc. offers various power solutions worldwide. The company operates through five segments: Engine, Distribution, Components, Power Systems, and Accelera. It offers diesel and natural gas-powered engines; and drivetrain systems, including axles, drivelines, brakes, and suspension systems; and on- and off-highway, and other products. The company also provides aftertreatment technology and solutions comprising custom engineering systems and integrated controls, oxidation catalysts, particulate filters, and selective catalytic reduction systems, as well as engineered components, including dosers; turbochargers, fuel systems, and valvetrain technologies; electronic control modules, sensors, and supporting software; and automated manual transmissions, and automatic transmissions for internal combustion engines. In addition, it sells and offers support services power generation systems, high-horsepower engines, and heavy-duty and medium-duty engines; offers application engineering services, custom-designed assemblies, and in-shop and field-based repair services; and retail and wholesale aftermarket parts. Further, the company offers standby and prime power generators, controls, paralleling systems, and transfer switches; turnkey solutions for distributed generation and energy management applications using natural gas, diesel, battery energy storage systems, and newer alternative sustainable fuels; diesel and natural gas high-speed, high-horsepower engines; and A/C generator/alternator products. Additionally, it provides electrified power systems, including batteries, fuel cells, and electric powertrain technologies. It sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, distributors, dealers, and other customers. The company was formerly known as Cummins Engine Company and changed its name to Cummins Inc. in 2001. Cummins Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Columbus, Indiana.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Cummins Inc reported revenue of $33.7B in FY2025 versus $24.0B in FY2021, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was $2.8B in FY2025, compounding +7.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.9 % · buybacks/dilution +2.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CMI screens 56% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Cummins (CMI) Stock Still Looks Cheap Following Recent Weakness
- Does Cummins’ Landmark AI Data Center BESS Win Reshape The Bull Case For Cummins (CMI)?
- Cummins (CMI) Lands Its Biggest Battery Storage Deal For A Major US Data Center
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 792 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc GEV | $941.84 | $131.95 | −86% |
| SIE SIE | €289.85 | €139.77 | −52% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $402.78 | $168.65 | −58% |
| Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH | $995.02 | $398.69 | −60% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 206.60 | kr 112.59 | −46% |
| Illinois Tool Works Inc ITW | $281.67 | $145.84 | −48% |
| Emerson Electric Co EMR | $155.18 | $58.44 | −62% |
| AMETEK, Inc AME | $236.25 | $125.80 | −47% |
| Rockwell Automation, Inc ROK | $417.53 | $125.76 | −70% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 384.40 | kr 193.01 | −50% |
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