CMC Markets PLC (CMCX) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · GB · Market cap 2.0B GBX · ISIN GB00B14SKR37
What is CMC Markets PLC really worth?
A solid business, but trading 114% above our fair value of £3.58.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from £2.37 to £3.58 (+51.1%) since Jul 12, 2026. Share price +9.8% over the past month.
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What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£5.77). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range (£2.69 to £5.77) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.8004 – £7.65 · fair‑value band £2.69 – £5.77 · the £7.65 price screens above the £3.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
CMC Markets PLC (CMCX) currently trades at £7.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £3.58, implying the stock looks roughly 113.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £5.22 per share, and 2 of the 13 models we run sit above the £7.65 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £1.14, and 11 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, CMC Markets PLC generated revenue of £347M at a net margin of 18.1%. Revenue grew 5.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of £164M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £2.69 (bear case) to £5.77 (bull case); at £7.65, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −53%, CMCX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 5 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly £0.0568 per share, which is 1.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£5.22) versus Asset-Based (£1.14). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 86
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
CMC Markets Plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides a platform for investing, trading, and brokerage in the United Kingdom, Australia, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Trading and Investing.
Full company description
CMC Markets Plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides a platform for investing, trading, and brokerage in the United Kingdom, Australia, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Trading and Investing. The Trading segment is involved in online trading that enables clients to trade a range of financial instruments, including contracts for difference and financial spread betting across various assets, such as shares, indices, foreign currencies, commodities, and treasuries for short-term investment and hedging purposes. The Investing segment provides online stockbroking services. It serves retail, professional, stockbroking, and institutional clients. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
CMC Markets PLC reported revenue of £411M in FY2026 versus £324M in FY2022, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was £74.4M in FY2026, compounding +1.0%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +9.8 % · buybacks/dilution +0.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CMCX screens 114% overvalued. Compare with Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, →
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 453 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS | $214.77 | $138.97 | −35% |
| The Goldman Sachs Group GS | $1,034 | $756.89 | −27% |
| The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW | $110.16 | $66.17 | −40% |
| Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD | $104.26 | $30.94 | −70% |
| Macquarie Group MQG | A$251.87 | A$75.58 | −70% |
| CITIC Securities Company 600030 | ¥27.93 | ¥17.68 | −37% |
| Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 | ¥17.87 | ¥18.62 | +4% |
| East Money Information Co 300059 | ¥19.42 | ¥4.77 | −75% |
| CSC Financial Co 601066 | ¥25.78 | ¥14.17 | −45% |
| Huatai Securities Co 601688 | ¥19.56 | ¥19.26 | −2% |
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