CFP.TO (CFP) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$1.7B (≈ $1.2B) · ISIN CA1375761048
What is CFP.TO really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 55% above our fair value of C$9.08.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 19, 2026, revised from C$4.54 to C$9.08 (+100.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −10.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (C$3.42 to C$14.76). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$10.98 – C$33.34 · fair‑value band C$3.42 – C$14.76 · the C$14.08 price screens above the C$9.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
CFP.TO (CFP) currently trades at C$14.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$9.08, implying the stock looks roughly 55.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 88/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Over the trailing twelve months, CFP.TO generated revenue of C$5.3B at a net margin of −15.9%. Revenue declined 4.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −29.9%. Net debt stands at C$799M. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$3.42 (bear case) to C$14.76 (bull case); at C$14.08, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −36%, CFP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (C$14.31) versus Multiples (C$9.05). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (67).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Canfor Corporation operates as an integrated forest products company in the United States, Asia, Canada, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Lumber, and Pulp and Paper segments.
Full company description
Canfor Corporation operates as an integrated forest products company in the United States, Asia, Canada, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Lumber, and Pulp and Paper segments. The company manufactures and sells softwood lumber, pulp and paper products, remanufactured lumber products, engineered wood and other lumber-related products, wood pellets, and energy. The company was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CFP.TO reported revenue of C$5.3B in FY2025 versus C$7.7B in FY2021, a compound −8.7%/yr. Reported net income was −C$797M in FY2025.
CFP screens 55% overvalued. Compare with Simpson Manufacturing Co →
Peer Group
Lumber & Wood Production · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Lumber & Wood Production stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simpson Manufacturing Co SSD | $182.07 | $145.26 | −20% |
| West Fraser Timber Co WFG | C$92.39 | C$33.38 | −64% |
| UFP Industries, Inc UFPI | $88.29 | $107.07 | +21% |
| Stella-Jones Inc SJ | C$75.22 | C$92.56 | +23% |
| Boise Cascade Company BCC | $77.12 | $51.39 | −33% |
| Century Plyboards (India) Limited CENTURYPLY | ₹751.05 | ₹201.01 | −73% |
| DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co 002043 | ¥12.58 | ¥14.78 | +17% |
| Interfor Corporation IFP | C$13.69 | C$6.43 | −53% |
| Kangxin New Materials Co 600076 | ¥3.11 | ¥0.6700 | −78% |
| Yunnan Jinggu Forestry Co 600265 | ¥24.67 | ¥2.52 | −90% |
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