Boise Cascad Llc (BCC) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $2.7B · ISIN US09739D1000
What is Boise Cascad Llc really worth?
Boise Cascad Llc
BCC · US
A solid business, but trading 50% above our fair value of $51.39.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated today
Share price −10.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($74.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($39.69 to $74.93) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $36.99 – $149.91 · fair‑value band $39.69 – $74.93 · the $77.12 price screens above the $51.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Boise Cascad Llc (BCC) currently trades at $77.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $51.39, implying the stock looks roughly 50.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $64.17 per share, and 2 of the 25 models we run sit above the $77.12 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $6.48, and 23 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Boise Cascad Llc generated revenue of $6.4B at a net margin of 1.7%. Revenue declined 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.3%. Net debt stands at $45.0M. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $39.69 (bear case) to $74.93 (bull case); at $77.12, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −53% fair-value upside, at −33%, BCC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.43 per share, which is 2.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($64.17) versus Growth DCF ($6.48). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Boise Cascade Company engages in the manufacture and sale of engineered wood products and plywood and wholesale distribution of building materials in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments, Wood Products and Building Materials Distribution.
Full company description
Boise Cascade Company engages in the manufacture and sale of engineered wood products and plywood and wholesale distribution of building materials in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments, Wood Products and Building Materials Distribution. The Wood Products segment manufactures laminated veneer lumber and beams for use in headers and beams; I-joists for residential and commercial flooring and roofing systems and other structural applications; structural, appearance, and industrial grade plywood panels; and ponderosa pine lumber and appearance grade boards. The Building Materials Distribution segment distributes a line of building materials, including oriented strand boards, plywood, and lumber; general line items, such as siding, composite decking, doors and millwork, metal products, insulation, and roofing; and engineered wood products. It markets and sells its products to dealers, home improvement centers, wholesalers, specialty distributors, and industrial converters for use in the construction of new residential housing, repair and remodeling of existing housing, construction of light industrial and commercial buildings, and other industrial applications through warehouse and direct sales. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Boise Cascad Llc reported revenue of $6.4B in FY2025 versus $7.9B in FY2021, a compound −5.2%/yr. Reported net income was $133M in FY2025, compounding −34.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.7 % · buybacks/dilution +0.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
BCC screens 50% overvalued. Compare with Simpson Manufacturing Co →
Peer Group
Lumber & Wood Production · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Lumber & Wood Production stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simpson Manufacturing Co SSD | $182.07 | $145.26 | −20% |
| West Fraser Timber Co WFG | C$92.39 | C$33.38 | −64% |
| UFP Industries, Inc UFPI | $88.29 | $107.07 | +21% |
| Stella-Jones Inc SJ | C$75.22 | C$92.56 | +23% |
| Century Plyboards (India) Limited CENTURYPLY | ₹751.05 | ₹201.01 | −73% |
| DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co 002043 | ¥12.58 | ¥14.78 | +17% |
| Canfor Corporation CFP | C$14.77 | C$4.54 | −69% |
| Interfor Corporation IFP | C$13.69 | C$6.43 | −53% |
| Kangxin New Materials Co 600076 | ¥3.11 | ¥0.6700 | −78% |
| Yunnan Jinggu Forestry Co 600265 | ¥24.67 | ¥2.52 | −90% |
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