Maplebear Inc. (CART) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $11.3B · ISIN US5653941030
What is Maplebear Inc. really worth?
Maplebear Inc.
CART · US
A strong business, but trading 28% above our fair value of $40.44.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +13.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 86/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($50.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($27.32 to $50.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
36‑month range $22.43 – $53.15 · fair‑value band $27.32 – $50.00 · the $51.72 price screens above the $40.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Maplebear Inc. (CART) currently trades at $51.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.44, implying the stock looks roughly 27.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 86/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $87.07 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the $51.72 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.18, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Maplebear Inc. generated revenue of $3.9B at a net margin of 12.6%. Revenue grew 13.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $601M. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $27.32 (bear case) to $50.00 (bull case); at $51.72, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −22%, CART screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.22 per share, which is 3.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($87.07) versus Asset-Based ($7.18). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (71).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 85 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Maplebear Inc., doing business as Instacart, operates as a technology and enablement partner for the grocery industry in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
Maplebear Inc., doing business as Instacart, operates as a technology and enablement partner for the grocery industry in the United States and internationally. The company offers Instacart Marketplace which helps retailers serve customers' needs by supporting fulfillment options, shopping occasions, and categories; Instacart Enterprise platform, an end-to-end technology solution for retailers across all aspects of business; and Instacart Ads, enables brands to learn more about general consumer behavior from discovery to purchase, offering insights about how to optimize advertising spend. It also provides advertising solutions, including sponsored product ads, display ads, coupons, and brand pages; and software-as-a-service. The company's services can be provided through company's mobile application or website. Maplebear Inc., was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Maplebear Inc. reported revenue of $3.7B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound +19.5%/yr. Reported net income was $447M in FY2025.
CART screens 28% overvalued. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →
Peer Group
Internet Retail · 103 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com, Inc AMZN | $256.26 | $127.67 | −50% |
| Alibaba Group 89988 | HK$97.45 | HK$48.38 | −50% |
| PDD Holdings PDD | $85.69 | $225.48 | +163% |
| MercadoLibre, Inc MELI | $1,966 | $798.98 | −59% |
| DoorDash, Inc DASH | $222.00 | $38.64 | −83% |
| Sea Limited SE | $118.32 | $52.70 | −55% |
| JD.com, Inc 89618 | ¥95.45 | ¥73.98 | −22% |
| eBay Inc EBAY | $105.62 | $60.13 | −43% |
| Coupang, Inc CPNG | $16.32 | $2.79 | −83% |
| Delivery Hero SE DHER | €37.05 | €12.71 | −66% |
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