Carlsberg A/S (CARL-B) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · DK · Market cap 120B DKK
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −0.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 34% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (kr 305.52 to kr 1,096). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 630.07 – kr 1,041 · fair‑value band kr 305.52 – kr 1,096 · the kr 916.20 price screens above the kr 607.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Carlsberg A/S (CARL-B) currently trades at kr 916.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 607.30, implying the stock looks roughly 33.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Carlsberg A/S generated revenue of 89.1B DKK at a net margin of 6.7%. Revenue grew 18.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.8%. Net debt stands at 63.3B DKK. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 305.52 (bear case) to kr 1,096 (bull case); at kr 916.20, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at -34%, CARL-B screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (kr 767.49) versus Asset-Based (kr 140.55). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Notify me when CARL-B reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Carlsberg A/S produces and markets beer, soft drinks, and other beverage products in Western Europe, Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, India, and internationally. The company was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Carlsberg A/S reported revenue of kr 89.1B in FY2025 versus kr 66.6B in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was kr 6.0B in FY2025, compounding −3.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CARL-B screens 34% overvalued. Compare with Anheuser-Busch InBev SA →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Alphabet, Tesla, Intel, American Express, Adida, Nike and Carlsberg
- Stuck on the Sidelines: Carlsberg reveals Three-Quarters of Adults Will Watch Football This Summer, but a Third Haven't Played a Game in Six
- Carlsberg Research Laboratory unlocks the genetic code of hops, helping protect the future of beer in a warming world
- A Look At Tilray (TLRY) Valuation After U.S. Policy News And New Carlsberg Partnership
Peer Group
Beverages - Brewers · 53 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anheuser-Busch InBev SA 1ABI | €68.84 | €41.60 | -40% |
| Ambev S.A ABEV | 14,120 ARS | 3,535 ARS | -75% |
| Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FEMSAUBD | 222.91 MXN | 201.74 MXN | -9% |
| Heineken N.V HEIA | €73.90 | €65.06 | -12% |
| Constellation Brands, Inc STZ | $133.98 | $173.19 | +29% |
| Heineken Holding HEIO | €69.70 | €99.95 | +43% |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600 | ¥53.45 | ¥63.65 | +19% |
| Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 | HK$6.35 | HK$6.05 | -5% |
| China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company 0291 | HK$22.50 | HK$25.37 | +13% |
| Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co 000729 | ¥12.85 | ¥12.51 | -3% |
Compare Carlsberg A/S with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Defensive stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Carlsberg A/S (CARL-B) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of CARL-B?
What is the quality score of CARL-B?
What is the revenue of Carlsberg A/S (CARL-B)?
What is the net profit margin of CARL-B?
Does Carlsberg A/S pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Carlsberg A/S and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.