Carlsberg A/S (CARL-B) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · DK · Market cap 120B DKK (≈ $18.7B) · ISIN DK0010181759
What is Carlsberg A/S really worth?
A solid business, but trading 44% above our fair value of kr 607.30.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price −8.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (kr 305.52 to kr 1,096). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 630.07 – kr 1,041 · fair‑value band kr 305.52 – kr 1,096 · the kr 875.20 price screens above the kr 607.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Carlsberg A/S (CARL-B) currently trades at kr 875.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 607.30, implying the stock looks roughly 44.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 767.49 per share, and 5 of the 25 models we run sit above the kr 875.20 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 140.55, and 20 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Carlsberg A/S generated revenue of 89.1B DKK at a net margin of 6.7%. Revenue grew 18.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.8%. Net debt stands at 63.3B DKK. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 305.52 (bear case) to kr 1,096 (bull case); at kr 875.20, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at −31%, CARL-B screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly kr 10.79 per share, which is 1.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (kr 767.49) versus Asset-Based (kr 140.55). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Carlsberg A/S produces and markets beer, soft drinks, and other beverage products in Western Europe, Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, India, and internationally. The company was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Carlsberg A/S reported revenue of 89.1B DKK in FY2025 versus 66.6B DKK in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was 6.0B DKK in FY2025, compounding −3.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.7 % · buybacks/dilution +1.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CARL-B screens 44% overvalued. Compare with Anheuser-Busch InBev SA →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Carlsberg (CPSE:CARL B) Stock Fair Value Edges Higher After Analyst Recalibration
- Carlsberg AS (CABGY) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Profit Growth and Synergy ...
- The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Alphabet, Tesla, Intel, American Express, Adida, Nike and Carlsberg
- Stuck on the Sidelines: Carlsberg reveals Three-Quarters of Adults Will Watch Football This Summer, but a Third Haven't Played a Game in Six
Peer Group
Beverages - Brewers · 56 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anheuser-Busch InBev SA ABI | €68.28 | €60.24 | −12% |
| Heineken N.V HEIA | €72.70 | €65.06 | −11% |
| Ambev S.A ABEV | $2.86 | $4.05 | +42% |
| Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FMX | $120.41 | $54.74 | −55% |
| Constellation Brands, Inc STZ | $129.09 | $173.19 | +34% |
| Heineken Holding HEIO | €68.25 | €60.55 | −11% |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600 | ¥51.63 | ¥63.65 | +23% |
| Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 | HK$6.35 | HK$6.05 | −5% |
| China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company 0291 | HK$22.16 | HK$25.38 | +15% |
| Molson Coors Canada Inc TPXA | C$63.00 | C$105.41 | +67% |
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