Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · BR · Market cap R$284B (≈ $55.8B)
What is Banco BTG Pactual SA really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 83% above our fair value of R$12.72.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +0.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Weak quality (23/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (R$7.15 to R$27.41). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$9.09 – R$45.29 · fair‑value band R$7.15 – R$27.41 · the R$23.21 price screens above the R$12.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3) currently trades at R$23.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$12.72, implying the stock looks roughly 82.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$49.32 per share, and 3 of the 9 models we run sit above the R$23.21 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$4.05, and 6 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Banco BTG Pactual SA generated revenue of R$44.6B at a net margin of 38.8%. Revenue grew 31.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 24.8%. Net debt stands at R$23.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$7.15 (bear case) to R$27.41 (bull case); at R$23.21, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −45%, BPAC3 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly R$0.7895 per share, which is 6.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (R$49.32) versus Asset-Based (R$4.05). Highest evidence: Owner Earnings (66).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 22 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Banco BTG Pactual S.A. provides financial products and services regarding commercial, investments, credit, financing, capital lease, insurance, and foreign exchange portfolios in Brazil and internationally.
Full company description
Banco BTG Pactual S.A. provides financial products and services regarding commercial, investments, credit, financing, capital lease, insurance, and foreign exchange portfolios in Brazil and internationally. The company also offers personal investment services for a customized investment portfolio; international banking account services, including debit card, transfer, payment and receipt, and customer support services. It also provides wealth management services, such as execution, market research, educational resources and analytics, and relationship management; family wealth management; checking and savings accounts, certificates of deposit, retirement accounts, and money market accounts; real estate financing; as well as corporate loans, term loans, lines of credit, and lender financing. Banco BTG Pactual S.A. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Banco BTG Pactual S.A. operates as a subsidiary of BTG Pactual Holding Financeira Ltda.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Banco BTG Pactual SA reported revenue of R$115B in FY2025 versus R$16.9B in FY2021, a compound +61.4%/yr. Reported net income was R$15.9B in FY2025, compounding +25.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +28.8 % · buybacks/dilution −0.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
BPAC3 screens 83% overvalued. Compare with Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, →
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 453 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS | $214.77 | $138.97 | −35% |
| The Goldman Sachs Group GS | $1,034 | $756.89 | −27% |
| The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW | $110.16 | $66.17 | −40% |
| Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD | $104.26 | $30.94 | −70% |
| Macquarie Group MQG | A$251.87 | A$75.58 | −70% |
| CITIC Securities Company 600030 | ¥27.93 | ¥17.68 | −37% |
| Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 | ¥17.87 | ¥18.62 | +4% |
| East Money Information Co 300059 | ¥19.42 | ¥4.77 | −75% |
| CSC Financial Co 601066 | ¥25.78 | ¥14.17 | −45% |
| Huatai Securities Co 601688 | ¥19.56 | ¥19.26 | −2% |
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