ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · NL · Market cap €14.3B · ISIN NL0011872643
What is ASR Nederland NV really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 84% above our fair value of €40.42.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +5.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€50.52). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €23.97 – €74.42 · fair‑value band €30.31 – €50.52 · the €74.42 price screens above the €40.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL) currently trades at €74.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €40.42, implying the stock looks roughly 84.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of €42.90 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the €74.42 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €28.18, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, ASR Nederland NV generated revenue of €17.1B at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue grew 9.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.7%. Net debt stands at €7.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €30.31 (bear case) to €50.52 (bull case); at €74.42, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −46%, ASRNL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (€42.90) versus Asset-Based (€28.18). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
ASR Nederland N.V. provides insurance, pensions, and mortgages products and services for consumers, businesses, and employers in the Netherlands. The company operates through five segments: Non-Life, Life, Asset Management, Distribution and Services, and Holding and Other.
Full company description
ASR Nederland N.V. provides insurance, pensions, and mortgages products and services for consumers, businesses, and employers in the Netherlands. The company operates through five segments: Non-Life, Life, Asset Management, Distribution and Services, and Holding and Other. It offers individual and group disability, as well as sickness leave; property and casualty, including motor, fire, liability, legal aid, travel and recreation, pet, and transport insurance; and health insurance, such as basic and supplementary health insurance. The company also provides pension products; Individual term life insurance; and funeral capital insurance. In addition, it is involved in the provision of asset management services, including investment property management, as well as managing of corporate bonds, government bonds, and equities; investment solutions; manages non-listed sector funds, which invest in retail and residential properties, offices, real estate on science parks, agricultural land, and renewable energy sources comprising wind, solar farms, and energy storage; and develops investment strategies. Further, the company operates in the residential mortgage markets under a.s.r. and Aegon brands; and specialised products for first-time buyers, customers who want to finance sustainable home modifications and senior citizens. Additionally, it engages in the provision of distribution and services; involved in the group-related activities, real estate development business, and activities relating to private investments for customers; offers expert guidance, software and advice on creating healthy and safe working environments services under the ArboNed, Mensely, HumanCapitalCare, Focus, and IT&Care brands; and health and reintegration services. The company was formerly known as Fortis Verzekeringen Nederland N.V. and changed its name to ASR Nederland N.V. in October 2008. The company was founded in 1720 and is based in Utrecht, the Netherlands.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ASR Nederland NV reported revenue of €19.7B in FY2025 versus €9.8B in FY2021, a compound +19.0%/yr. Reported net income was €582M in FY2025, compounding −10.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +11.0 % · buybacks/dilution −4.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ASRNL screens 84% overvalued. Compare with Berkshire Hathaway Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ASR Nederland NV (ASRRF) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record OCC and Operating Result, ...
- ASR Nederland NV (ASRRF) Full Year 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Robust Growth and Strategic ...
- Assessing ASR Nederland (ENXTAM:ASRNL) Valuation After Recent Subtle Share Price Shifts
- Is There Still Opportunity in ASR Nederland Shares After Recent 26.5% Rally in 2025?
Peer Group
Insurance - Diversified · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 20/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRKB80 | 1.67 THB | 1.48 THB | −11% |
| Allianz SE ALV | €453.00 | €266.04 | −41% |
| Zurich Insurance Group ZURN | CHF 596.00 | CHF 335.07 | −44% |
| AXA SA CS | €43.61 | €39.90 | −9% |
| Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G | €44.11 | €10.92 | −75% |
| Sun Life Financial Inc SLF | C$108.85 | C$57.05 | −48% |
| American International Group AIG | $76.14 | $80.91 | +6% |
| The Hartford Insurance Group HIG | $137.38 | $133.10 | −3% |
| Arch Capital Group ACGL | $98.76 | $124.45 | +26% |
| Swiss Life Holding SLHN | CHF 919.00 | CHF 425.23 | −54% |
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