Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $17.7B · ISIN US04351P1012
What is Ascendis Pharma AS really worth?
Ascendis Pharma AS
ASND · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 4,325% above our fair value of $6.12.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Sep 3, 2026, revised from $6.08 to $6.12 (+0.7%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +10.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($3.12 to $9.13). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $69.96 – $277.18 · fair‑value band $3.12 – $9.13 · the $271.12 price screens above the $6.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND) currently trades at $271.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.12, implying the stock looks roughly 4,324.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $21.13 per share, and 0 of the 8 models we run sit above the $271.12 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.24, and 8 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Ascendis Pharma AS generated revenue of $866M at a net margin of 57.3%. Revenue grew 144.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.3%. Net debt stands at $256M. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.12 (bear case) to $9.13 (bull case); at $271.12, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 69% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −98%, ASND screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $5.86 per share, which is 95.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($21.13) versus Dividend Discount ($1.24). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Ascendis Pharma A/S, operates as a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing TransCon-based therapies for unmet medical needs in Europe, the United States, and internationally.
Full company description
Ascendis Pharma A/S, operates as a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing TransCon-based therapies for unmet medical needs in Europe, the United States, and internationally. The company offers SKYTROFA for treating pediatric patients with growth hormone deficiency; and YORVIPATH, a once-daily subcutaneous injection for the treatment of adults with chronic hypoparathyroidism. It is also developing a pipeline of three independent endocrinology rare disease product candidates in clinical development, as well as focuses on advancing oncology therapeutic candidates. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Hellerup, Denmark.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ascendis Pharma AS reported revenue of €692M in FY2025 versus €7.8M in FY2021, a compound +207.1%/yr. Reported net income was −€219M in FY2025.
ASND screens 4,325% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 622 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $547.55 | $278.78 | −49% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $807.71 | $594.40 | −26% |
| argenx SE ARGX | €877.60 | €292.84 | −67% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,518,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | −30% |
| CSL Limited CSL | A$174.50 | A$141.68 | −19% |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY | $228.61 | $51.70 | −77% |
| Royalty Pharma plc RPRX | $60.58 | $24.22 | −60% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 190,700 KRW | 74,519 KRW | −61% |
| BeOne Medicines AG ONC | $362.51 | $111.35 | −69% |
| BioNTech SE BNTX | $111.40 | $45.66 | −59% |
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