Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $10.1B · ISIN US04280A1007
What is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc really worth?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc
ARWR · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 835% above our fair value of $9.25.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 23, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 13 days ago
Share price −3.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.99 – $90.32 · fair‑value band $6.72 – $11.76 · the $86.49 price screens above the $9.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
Analysis
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR) currently trades at $86.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.25, implying the stock looks roughly 835.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $24.70 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $86.49 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.22, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc generated revenue of $622M at a net margin of −48.4%. Revenue declined 86.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −42.4%. Net debt stands at $140M. Fundamentals as of Aug 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.72 (bear case) to $11.76 (bull case); at $86.49, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −89%, ARWR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($24.70) versus Asset-Based ($2.22). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. develops medicines for the treatment of intractable diseases in the United States. Its pipeline includes Plozasiran to reduce production of apolipoprotein C-III in Phase 3 studies; Zodasiran to reduce production of angiopoietin-like protein 3 in Phase 3 clinical trials; ARO-DIMER-PA, a dual functional RNAi molecule in a Phase …
Full company description
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. develops medicines for the treatment of intractable diseases in the United States. Its pipeline includes Plozasiran to reduce production of apolipoprotein C-III in Phase 3 studies; Zodasiran to reduce production of angiopoietin-like protein 3 in Phase 3 clinical trials; ARO-DIMER-PA, a dual functional RNAi molecule in a Phase 1/2a clinical trials; and ARO-PNPLA3, an investigational RNAi therapeutic in Phase 1 clinical trials. The company also develops ARO-INHBE, to reduce the hepatic expression of the INHBE gene and its secreted gene product, Activin E in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; ARO-ALK7 to silence adipocyte expression of the ACVR1C gene in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; ARO-RAGE to reduce production of the receptor for advanced glycation end products in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; and ARO-MAPT, an investigational RNAi-based therapy. In addition, it is developing ARO-C3 to reduce production of C3 in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; and ARO-CFB to reduce hepatic expression of CFB in a Phase 1/2a clinical trials. The company has collaboration and license Agreements with Glaxosmithkline Intellectual Property (No. 3) Limited; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited; Amgen Inc.; and Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Pasadena, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $829M in FY2025 versus $138M in FY2021, a compound +56.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.6M in FY2025.
ARWR screens 835% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Arrowhead’s plozasiran cuts pancreatitis events in Phase 3 studies
- Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Presents Phase 3 SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4 Data Demonstrating Plozasiran Reduced Acute Pancreatitis Events in Patients
- Could Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR)’s Plozasiran Become the Catalyst for a Major Stock Re-rating?
- Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals to Present New Clinical Data at the European Society of Cardiology Congress
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 622 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $547.55 | $278.78 | −49% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $807.71 | $594.40 | −26% |
| argenx SE ARGX | €877.60 | €292.84 | −67% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,518,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | −30% |
| CSL Limited CSL | A$174.50 | A$141.68 | −19% |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY | $228.61 | $51.70 | −77% |
| Royalty Pharma plc RPRX | $60.58 | $24.22 | −60% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 190,700 KRW | 74,519 KRW | −61% |
| BeOne Medicines AG ONC | $362.51 | $111.35 | −69% |
| BioNTech SE BNTX | $111.40 | $45.66 | −59% |
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